Hero on button with KJo ($1000)
Folds to hero who raises to $20
SB calls ($550)
BB calls ($700)
Flop:
AQ6sxx
All check
Turn:
Ts
Checks to hero who bets out $35
SB 3bets to $100
BB cold calls
Hero ???
SB has been playing pretty snug throughout the time he's been on the table, but haven't seen most of his hands. BB is a borderline OMC and plays his value hands fairly face up. Had a previous hand with the BB where I had AQo on a flop of AT7r, I bet and he called. Turn was a blank and he quickly lead for $250. I folded and told me I made a good fold. He had ATo.
I feel like I should be raising in this spot due to the pot going three ways and considering that the BB probably likes his hand that I should extract more value with the nuts on the turn. Or should I flat to disguise my hand and play the hand from there?
Almost no-one has a raise/fold range OTT in LLSNL, and our nuts are mortal. Another spade may well kill our hand or our action, and there is a lot behind. Raise it up!
Board is wet enough to raise, although it might be slightly more profitable to just call and check/call check/raise the river if you can stand the variance. A bit over 1/3rd of the remaining deck could put you in an uncomfortable position on the river.
I’d probably just raise to like $325 and if called just shove any river since you can’t fold based on the pot size at that point.
I’m not sure I agree that people can’t fold this turn. After a checked flop someone may have turned 2p here and can make a disciplined fold to a 3b.
Probably should cbet in this spot, unless we were planning on giving up which I wouldnt on a board better for our range.
I think flop bet can be bigger to 50ish
Xr from sb could be two pair, maybe TT, is As on the board?
BB is likely exclusively on spade draw or JT, KT type hand, I think bb would bet his 2p or better range when sb checks turn twice and H checked back flop.