EP limps, i make it $12 with QJo 3 away from BTN. blinds fold, EP calls.

flop($27): KT9r

EP checks, hero bets $17, EP calls.

turn($61): 6

EP checks, hero bets $40, EP calls.

river($141): 2, no flush board

EP checks, hero bets how much?

eff stacks $200, i have a psb left.



villan has reloaded twice already. probably mid 50s, and your casino fish. loves to tip new dealers when they sit down, and just tips them whenever he feels like it. seen him raise 62o from early and show. plays a ton of suited stuff and is passive for the most part. ive noticed he checks down when he has some showdown value on rivers, and when he bets rivers he is mostly polarized.

something to note, ive seen him make a crazy fold as a cold caller with AJo on something like J73r2 in position. he called a cbet vs a pfr, and folded face up on the turn. pfr shows QQ. so he does have a tendency to fold good hands.

and yeah, i should bet more on the flop, i usually just multiply my raise with the number of callers and exclude the blinds which is why my flop bet seems too small.

If you bet close to pot/pot/pot you could have been all-in on the river.

As played I'd bet like $120.

Ya, just pot/pot or whatever needs to be done so river shove ain't too big.

As played, I'd still shove. The chances of him calling a shove are barely different than him calling any other large bet, but the difference in +EV is huge.

GcluelessNLnoobG

tough spot

I don't really agree with this because it's hard to see how villain's hand improved on turn or river. You're basically counting on him to stack off with something like KJ.

You don't even need to pot/pot flop/turn; just bet slightly more than you did on flop (like $22 or something) and the same bet size in relation to the now-bigger pot on the turn (if you bet $22 on the flop the pot is now $71, so you can bet $50, leaving you with a shove of ~$115 into $170 on the river). As played still shoving given that it's less than a PSB. @Rumor how much more often do you think he calls an all-in compared to a bet that leaves him with like $10 left over?

Ah, I read the river eff stacks as 200 due to the weird placement in the OP.

Yes I would shove there.

I don't mind the flop sizing too much, but a little more would be better.
Even the small change to $20 helps, since it gets you to $67 OTT, where you can then bet $50, leaving your river bet $118 into $167 and easier for him to call. More OTT makes the river trivial.

I try to avoid betting the full pot if I can in these spots. It seems like I get a LOT more calls for $20/22 here than I do for $30. And we can usually still get stacks in by the river anyway.


AP I'm torn between betting $80-90 and shoving for the $130 you have left. Some guys will have the same calling range for both sizes, a few will just ****it-shove if you go $80, others have a wider calling range for $80, and the really crazy ones will have a wider range for the *larger* bet because they think you're bluffing.

Regardless of the bet sizing, I think we're really only looking at getting called by a slowplayed set or some screwy 2-pair hand. I doubt that a single un-improved pair is calling any bet > $50 here.

yeah its slightly under a pot sized bet, but im realizing that live players don't even know i have a psb left. like they'll view a bet >$100 big and will lay it down because its a huge bet, while they might call a bet around $50-70.

im guessing the top of his range is Kx. the rest is something like a pair+draw. does he ever call a shove on the river given that range?

i thought about betting something around $60ish or so. got greedy and shoved because i have lolnuts and he folded. results oriented, but i actually lost value by shoving.

results:

Yeah but he only has to call the river shove like half as often for it to have the same EV. Actually slightly less than half as often than a bet of $60.

cool, how do you do the math for this?




for those who say just pot/pot/shove, do you just throw balance out the window playing live? like are you potting a cbet when you miss? ur prob betting something like 2/3 pot right?

I mean if he calls a bet of $60 100% of the time you win $60; if he calls a bet of $130 50% of the time you win (130 * .5 =) $65. If you want to do an exact comparison, just divide 130/60; since the answer is ~2.17 (I'm a Rounder ), he has to call a $60 bet 2.17 times as often for it to yield the same EV as the $130.

As played, this is an all in.

However, Bet 22 on flop and the pot is 71. Bet 60 and the pot is 191. You now have less than a psb left.

ty


yeah ikestoys, just realized the smallest mistake on the flop can change everything.

I'd bet 75 on the river. The river didn't change anything. Most villains snap call 40 - 50, grudgingly call 60 - 80, and fold much more unless they have two pair plus.

In general, villains fear monsters any time your bet on one street is more than double the previous street.

Flop sizing was fine. Too many on this forum advocate potting big hands but cbetting 60-70 percent with air, which even weak opponents will pick up on eventually.

You have four types of hands on the flop: monsters, medium-strength hands, draws, and air. You really should be betting about the same amount with all of these for balance, and I think two-thirds pot must be more optimal (otherwise pros would always pot flop).

You can and should vary bet size based on flop texture, position, and number of opponents, but not hand strength.

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