Nut Flush Draw 250 BB deep - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash

Nut Flush Draw 250 BB deep

Post Reply Subscribe

...

01-14-2014 , 11:59 AM

theobsessed1

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 64

$1/$2

Hero ($500) OTB with A

Villain ($450) UTG - super nitty hasn't played too many hands pre-flop. showed down lots of pocket pairs during checked-down pots.

table limps to Hero OTB and Hero raises to $15
UTG limp calls
2 other players call

FLOP ($65): J

Players check to Hero
Hero bets $45 into pot of $65
Villain check raises to $125 total

Hero ???

Given reads this guy was definitely a nutty nit player so the most logical decision is probably a fold but I'm trying to see if a shove/call is ever an option here.

Quote

01-14-2014 , 12:52 PM

99s

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 60

I think you can flat the extra $80. You have position.

Quote

01-14-2014 , 01:00 PM

Lucere

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 559

Just how nitty is this guy?

1) Would he be doing this with AJ?

2) Would he do this with an over PP (QQ+)?

3) If you think he's doing this with only a set, would he pay you off if a

comes?

For #1, would you have any fold equity if you shoved as a semi-bluff?

Ditto for #2 (probably not likely)?

For #3, you're getting about 3:1 now for a call, so you'll need some implied odds to call with the FD, which you might or might not have depending on how nitty this guy is.

Quote

01-14-2014 , 05:19 PM

fatmanonguitar

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 2,834

This seems pretty straightforward. Based on his description, AJ is the WORST holding he has. In any case, you are drawing to at most 9 outs. You are getting just under 3:1 expressed odds - not enough to justify a call, especially since you will face another bet OTT if a heart doesn't bink.

2 further points to consider:

1) do you have sufficient implied odds? - Probably not. V's image implies that a heart will freeze the action and you likely won't get paid off.

2) do you have enough FE to justify a semi-bluff flop 3-bet? - No given his nutted range.

Such a pretty flop for Ah9h, but it is a clear fold.

Quote

01-14-2014 , 05:59 PM

el ladron

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 76

Fold. Next time take the free card......

Quote

01-14-2014 , 06:02 PM

fatmanonguitar

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 2,834

Quote:

Originally Posted by el ladron

Fold. Next time take the free card......

No. Results oriented.

Next time c-bet again with good hand equity and decent fold equity against one-pair hands.

Quote

01-14-2014 , 06:26 PM

Hainesy_2KT

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 1,546

gotta say, like fatman said, it looks lovely but if a heart lands will this super-nit even pay you off? he clearly has a set of 7s or 4s and will probably fold if a heart drops and you start pumping the pot on the turn, coupled with how ahead he is already you probably have to ditch it. villain-dependent though, i'm calling as standard here vs. most ppl.

Quote

01-14-2014 , 06:56 PM

beauvanlaanen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 12,487

Folding nut flush draw on the flop on a non paired board is bad. I would flat and if you feel V has a monster and you don't hit on the turn you can prolly give up and fold

Quote

01-14-2014 , 06:59 PM

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,477

Easy call.

If we hit a heart on the turn and he shuts down and won't even call a $80 bet into the $240 pot then we know he will fold on any scare cards. But thats unlikely. I think we can certainly expect to get two small bets out of him. $70 on the turn. $130 on the river.

If we can't we simply adjust and bluff him more later.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...