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Nut FD on paired flop - call or raise? Nut FD on paired flop - call or raise?

11-09-2013 , 02:02 AM
1/3 at Aria I just sat down and have folded two hands.

Villain (CO) is fat, 30ish guy I've played with before. Thinks he's better than he is; likes talking strat after every hand. Likes to call down light at times but he's a thinking player.

Don't think he has much of an image of me or even recognizes me.

Effective stacks are $300.

UTG raises to $12. Four callers by the time it gets to me OTB. I call with AJ.

Flop ($76):

T88

Checked to Villain in CO. He bets $40.

What should we do and why?
Nut FD on paired flop - call or raise? Quote
11-09-2013 , 02:02 AM
Just call.
Nut FD on paired flop - call or raise? Quote
11-09-2013 , 02:09 AM
Yeah, I would flat here. We can always use position to outplay people on the turn.
Nut FD on paired flop - call or raise? Quote
11-09-2013 , 02:20 AM
Is there not enough dead money in the pot to take it down now? If villain has a ten, a FD, or a SD, he will likely fold.

Say we raise to 100-120. Are we then committed to call a shove?
Nut FD on paired flop - call or raise? Quote
11-09-2013 , 02:29 AM
Is it correct that there are 4 other players to act before it gets back to CO if you raise?
Nut FD on paired flop - call or raise? Quote
11-09-2013 , 02:37 AM
Anytime a million people see the flop and a middle card is paired, you have to be wary of trips. Raising is pretty bad because of how often you're gonna be all-in with like 25% equity.

And you don't want dominated draws to fold anyway.

Last edited by SABR42; 11-09-2013 at 02:47 AM.
Nut FD on paired flop - call or raise? Quote
11-09-2013 , 02:40 AM
Spoiler:
Yeah, this is what I was thinking. Just wanted to confirm I played the hand like a moron. I raised, villain shoved, I puke-called and missed. The good news is, he rivered quads.
Nut FD on paired flop - call or raise? Quote
11-09-2013 , 03:22 AM
I would agree with just calling. He fired a half pot c-bet into 5 players which means he's probably not bluffing and I don't like the idea of trying to make low limit players fold overpairs unless the board runs out really bad for them. And let's not forget there are 4 other people who could wake up with the hand we're trying to represent.
Nut FD on paired flop - call or raise? Quote
11-09-2013 , 05:41 AM
See, I know all this and I still spazzed out. I'm running really bad lately and think it's getting to my thought process. I either play much too timidly or much too aggressively. Time for a break.
Nut FD on paired flop - call or raise? Quote

      
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