Okay I see what you're saying. Sorry if I came off as condescending because that obviously wasn't my intention; it's hard not to come off as a humorless ******* when you're addicted to semicolons ime
We've pretty much pinpointed the assumptions that we disagree on here. There are essentially 2 parts of his range we have to worry about maximizing against, the PP part and the 2x/43 part. The PP part is probably a little bigger so that should be a larger concern of ours. I happen to think that both parts are more likely to bet than call a bet, but it's certainly arguable. Against 43/2x I don't think it matters
that much because he's probably betting if we check and calling if we bet, so the EV of the two lines against that part of his range will be similar. So the more important question imo is how to maximize against PPs, which unfortunately is going to be pretty difficult to get value from regardless of our line. If we donk out on the river we pretty much have to convince him that we've suddenly decided to turn 6x into a bluff after c/cing 2 streets, which seems like a hard sell to me. Whereas if we check he could go for a thin value bet, although I admit he checks behind a lot. Ava is right that the K is a ****ty card for us in that respect.
I'm certainly interested in hearing more of your thoughts, but we may have reached the "agree to disagree" stage. Which sucks because I was hoping to be convinced since you generally seem better than me lol
eta:
Quote:
I do see a good argument for the $40 for a crying call.
I think this is certainly better than shoving, and might be the optimal line.
Last edited by NeverScurred; 05-07-2013 at 03:45 PM.