There is $128 in the pot and you want to ship $565 with a draw and 2 overs? Doesnt this seem a tad aggressive?

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Calling >> shoving, IMO. Villain has all the sets, and only two reasonable flush draws, Jd9d and QdJd. Even if they are getting frisky with all their J9s and QJs, that's only six more bluff combos. Villain's continuing range is weighted heavily towards value, and so shoving is a really bad idea.

ETA: Whoops, forgot hero has AdQd, which blocks QdJd. That's one less combo in villain's reasonable bluffing range, and tilts the scales even further towards calling and not raising.

If villain is bluffing wider, with some total nonsense hands, we should bluff-catch with our ace-high. We don't want to fold them out.

We block a lot of his FD combos with AdQd, so yes he is value-heavy. I almost want to fold right now since if he's any good he's shipping brick turns and we'll be priced out to see the river (we're actually priced out right now to see just the turn). But in game I'd call and hope I get to see river for a decent price too.

Depending on raise size and resulting SPRs I'm not pumped on either preflop result, although if raises were small with these big stacks then SPRs will be large enough to have lots of postflop poker, so whatever (I know we disagree on this).

AA is definitely robust enough to be able to check while underrepping our hand, so I'd lean towards that (I'd much more bet TT than AA here). Course I have a super nitty image, so if you're more aggro you might have to actually bet your better hands. Having someone hit an overcard ain't a bad thing. Either/or, imo, but checking allows us a much better chance at getting to showdown while not getting in gross spots in a big SPR pot OOP, which should be our overall goal at this point.

I actually think KJs is either/or too on the flop. Obviously with all our outs we should mostly have decent equity so a bet can almost be for value with a disguised hand with probably some small FE mixed in. But I think checking is also fine (especially without the non-nut draw we're not as excited to build a pot) and also disguises our flush if it gets there (as no one raises preflop to flop a flush draw and check).

There's always two ways to get value in poker; betting to get called by worse, and checking to induce worse to put money in the pot (either now or later). Obviously image dependent, but checking for value is fine.

GimoG

I'd raise just a smidge more preflop but whatever.

SPR is 4ish on a non drawy board. Hand is already destined to play out with 3 smallish bets for stacks to get paid off by worse Ax, meanwhile we'll get stacked by any 7x.

The other option is to get this done in 2 bets although on a dry board like this there is really only one reason to do that: so we don't chicken out on the river by not getting stacks in. And by the river we'll often chicken out on a flop like this and even moreso if we saw some scary broadway cards. I think we mostly should be jamming the river against what is often a blocking bet (although obviously we own ourselves sometimes).

GcluelessNLnoobG

So I shipped, and he hummed and he hawed, and muttered aloud on whether I had a flush draw, before finally folding and showing a ten.

In hindsight, I think I may have been over-aggressive here, and I think calling might be better. What do people think about not c-betting, and going for a call or raise if he bets?

Just reading the comments about hes weightwd more likely strong. Obviously worked out fine.

Showing up with just a T for the flop raise is a refutation of this idea that his range is strong though. There are a million Ts he could have for his flat preflop, it's not like he's only raising one combo of Tx here. Showing a T means that Tx is a big chunk of his range and none of it can really call a ship.

+1 to shipping river here and a bit more pre. Old lady did us a favor by block betting, as this is an A almost always, making it a pretty clear shove for value.

Also that's why everything other than shoving is wrong, because OK, on the assumption that he has some nitty raising range, maybe shoving is slightly suboptimal, but it's never a disaster, whereas not shoving against a T here is an awful outcome.

You have to know your aggressive guy. Against people with polarized raising ranges, you generally want to go passive when they raise and let them continue to bet. Against people with more balanced raising ranges, well, if you were spirited into the body of someone who just raised a T OTF here, what would you really hate to see happen? For your opponent to shove over the top, right?

When you don't really know what their raising range is, you have to cater for both possibilities.

I disagree that $40 bet is blocking in the hands of some old Asian lady, it's frequently that she did flop a 7 and doesn't want us to fold. A lot of those sort of players aren't even familiar with the idea of a blocking bet. I don't think shoving river is crazy or anything but I'd flat. I'd bet more on the turn, as that seems like a safer way to get a bit more value from the hand.

In which GG's priority in a hand is once again to avoid putting himself in any situation where he has to make a decision, in order to avoid any possibility he'll make a bad one.

It's not about what is villain's range for raising hero's flop c-bet. It's about what is villain's range for calling hero's flop 3-bet shove.

(For what it's worth, villain's raising the flop with TX, even T9 or JT, is LOLbad.)

That makes no sense to me. It's about the fraction of his range he'll call the shove with, which depends partly on what he'll call, but also on how wide his raising range is in the first place.

Raising a T is bad, but it can't be that bad if you're never shoving over it.

How often do you bluff raise the flop or turn? I know that is super broad, but in my last session I was trying to pay attention to pots I thought I could've raised and won and I never raised as a bluff. For example:

35yo WG raises from EP (He can have 66+, Q10s+, Axs+) to $20 (2/5 game, $500 eff stacks). Gets 2 callers. Flop is real dry Q38r and he cbets $35. How often should I be raising to $120 here? (Lets say I have AJ or 99) Until I get called? At the same frequency you flop a set or 2 pair?

Since we don't have value raises on dry boards very often, we shouldn't be bluff-raising them often either.

Fortunately, bad players bluff them all the time.

(Basically, raising dry boards, for value or as a bluff, is terribad.)

Something I've been toying around with is whether we should be bluff raising turns more. I feel like everybody who is halfway thinking knows that check raises on flops are often draws, so does it ever make sense to check raise the turn instead? In line with the concept of a delayed c-bet. I understand our odds are now much lower when we do this, but I wonder if this works at a higher percentage vs thinking regs.

AJ and 99 would be bad choices to raise with.

On dry boards, it's often better to play most of your range here as a flat. It's rare that you're enthused about playing for stacks (you'll need 33 or 88, basically) so you shouldn't structure your play around that. If you do want to raise flop with those, which is fine, raise with JTs and T9s as well to balance out. If you think your opponent is nitty, you can raise with some pure bluffs as well, stuff like KJs. Stuff like AJ and 99, if you want to continue with it, float and maybe try to take the pot away later depending what happens.

Anyone ever monkey around at the lower stakes buying into the game with a min buyin and spew monkey it off to get the game out of the muck. Then after eventually losing it buying in full, tightening up ranges and printing money?

Good post.

I'd like to add 99+AJ have way too playability/showdown value to be turning into a bluff in that spot.

2/5NL. Hero is effective stack with about $600. One limp to hero who makes it $20 in the CO with KhQh. BTN (semi-pro) calls, limper (average MAWG rec) calls.

$60 (less rake, 6 max, but not sure of %)
Flop Js8h4d, both call my $35 c-bet.

$159
Turn Js8h4d As, checks through.

$159
River Js8h4dAs Ts
MAWG donks for $50
Hero ?? Obv never folding here, and I assume we're always raising, though I'll listen to arguments for a flat. Interested in sizing and thoughts on if re-raised.

Fun argument for a flat.

Depending on capability of semi-pro, flatting would either 1) allow/incentivize him to turn something like KsJx/QsJx into a bluff if he feels 2nd pair is not good (plausible) and him putting the original bettor in a tougher spot with you behind increases chance of success. 2) Run the math on him overcalling JT/Ax vs how often you need the original bettor to call vs what I presume would need to be a smallish raise.

This is interesting because I use to cbet this hand/flop as well...like in my days of just playing on pure aggression. Then I think I start to learn about poker and start checking this flop. I don’t know what’s right anymore. I guess there’s merit to both. However what value in betting the flop seems to be attainable in betting or raising appropriate turns. I don’t know. I don’t like the flop bet though, but maybe I’m getting old.

I don’t see many people in 2-5 bet sizing to induce raises, but I also don’t know what mawg stands for. So, I think you can easily raise/fold to $145-$185.

Oh yea, I forgot there was a player behind...oops (edited)

MAWG is a Middle-Aged White Guy. Board is pretty dry and I have a pretty tight image and have not been c-betting 100%. I think it's fine for a c-bet.