do you have a stop win?

lol nh gg

What are you questioning?

my sanity basically. thought it was an easy shove, lots of things i beat he can call with ... just hate life when he flips over 77.

lol quadaments... You get looked up by QJ+ and Q9 also

Quick survey on a ****ty spot.

Dumb ass luck box with $300 raises to $12 UTG, so 100% to have a top 2.5% hand. I call in the CO with 77, button calls, all others fold.

Button is pretty good. Played one hand against him from the button with KK, QT8 flop, he check calls flop, turn 7, he check calls, river T he check folds. Pretty much optimal if he has KQ or AQ.

So back to the hand.

Flop comes down 634r. Lockbox checks, I bet $24, button calls, luck box folds.

Turn 7.

Bet/fold
Check/call
Check/fold

Thoughts on your preferred line.

Suppose further that we check and button bets, say, 45-50 (there's 75-ish in the pot). And that stacks at the start were 300 effective.

I'd bet/fold, possibly on both streets.

Putting myself in villain's position, I would call a turn bet if I happened to have 64s,43s, and it's not inconceivable to see 88,99, or TT call some frequency of the time. It also has the added benefit of making the hand less of a guessing game.

Check call turn. He could think we were stealing IP after raiser checked. I dont want to get blown off such a strong value hand when villain can be floating. Lets keep our range appearing wide vs thinking player

Are we check/calling both streets? What if he shoves the river (Assuming we had around 100-150bb)?

Ok, assume I check/call turn and the river is a brick (say a J or Q) and I check river and he goes $75 or $90 (whatever would be about half pot or 40%)

I think we call river too. I think competent villains vbet sets on this board still, so its not just air. He literally has to have 5x to have us beat. Only time I may fold is to a huge bet.

Gotta call.

Competent villains raise sets on this flop most of the time. You have to discount the number of combos of sets in his range by the number of sets he raises on the flop.

Also, it's not hard for him to haze 5x; that's exactly what most villains are calling my flop bet with. Right? 88-JJ, and any 5. Maybe 64, although 64 will raise a lot, too.

As played, doesn't he have more combos of 55 than combos of 33, 44 and 66 that he didn't raise on the flop?

And how does he not check back his overpairs on the river?

I can maybe see calling the turn, but calling the river seems like a mistake?

the more I stew about it, the more I don't like a c/call on the river.

Ok, if we are all so far apart, I'm going to make a PAHWM out of this hand using the actual action.

Huh; I thought I had made a basic mistake, but it seems like it might be a tricky spot after all.

Thanks guys.

mpethy, did b/f cross your mind OTR?

Another thing, I think any notes on if villain floats or over-values position (i.e. calls super super super wide pre) is important to know.

Hell no!

Ya I dont like that either. fun hand, looking forward to pahwm

it's up

2/5, villian has been playing passively preflop all night

Stacks are $700eff with Villian covering, we havent clashed yet and I havent 3bet much at all (had one earlier but dont think Villian saw it)

Villian opens to $35 which is immediately strange because he had no problems open limping medium strength hands, 1 caller, I raise to $105 on the BTN with black Kings, Villian asks about my stack and pauses for 20 seconds and ships it all in

No problems stacking off here or is this a possible fold KK pre spot?

It was made more interesting because the exact same thing happened with a very tight/solid player an orbit ago, where he shipped aces against a BTNs 3bet with QQs and BTN tank called. A few people at the table said QQ was a horrible call and only KK is close but not a snap

Two years ago it was fine "to never fold KK." Now I never see live 1/2 or 2/5 players 4bet shove worse (barely see them 3bet worse). I always say something like "I call in a less-than-thrilled fashion" but maybe now I'll be more apt to fold to the right opponent.

agree with this. I have been treating QQ as a fold to 3 bets until proven otherwise/a certain crazy dynamic, or villain is semi steaming. While this is exploitable no one knows this, and I'm sure we can adjust. Luckily people don't really notice these things. There isn't as much JJ 3 betting anymore either. Moreover, I see people limp call and flat original raisers with AK 8.5/10 times

At 2/5 against thinking regulars, who also play 5/10/20, can we ever 4bet shove AQs for 100bb? I know against standard LLSNL players 99-QQ/KQ/AQ+ is pretty much a snap fold to 3bets, but thinking regulars, with a mid-stake trajectory, can 3bet light, especially if Hero's been tending to LAG, and if you add, say 30% air to their range, it would probably be +EV. I know this a standard theory inquiry, but any quick thoughts would be appreciated, as this preflop line has been bugging me of late.

With poker odds.

If it is a bet on the turn, there is $40 in the pot and I have to call a $10 bet.

Does that mean i am getting 1;5 on my money, IE is my $10 included in the total amount i am going to win. Or is it 1:4?

you have your numbers backwards. the odds being layed are put first.

is the $10 bet into a $30 dollar pot?

if that is the case you can win $40 by calling $10 ON THIS STREET. you are currently getting 4:1 on your money.