A limp/re-raise in EP, esp in a straddled pot, is usually AA/KK with a 20% chance of smaller PPs that wanted to see a cheap and set mine, but change their mind when a raise comes and they decide to try to take it down or flip. Against that range you have about 30% equity. Without better reads, I fold here.

Not thread-worthy but useful aside:

When I talk to some of the regs in my game I notice that many have the following characteristics:
i) they are "nit-regs", they usually play super tight pre, like to limp a lot and try to "make" nut hands, then get paid.
ii) they are good enough to fold lots of trouble hands and not peel/chase really light so they're not really as dead money as true fish
iii) they are too passive on the river... And miss huge value betting opportunities because they almost are too 'scared' to value bet thinly
iv) they lack enough aggression and in some ways lack 'gamble' (ie, they often may not 3b AK or TT-QQ)
v) they play 'their cards' too much

- these guys often tell me stuff like "I'm so card dead right now, I wish I could just get QQ+ or flop a set... The table is good". Then they'll mention how great it is to have a 75/5/.5 whale at the table...


The result is that these guys are Break-even to small winners in the game. They don't make a game good because of their nitty style and they don't pay off that much really. However, they rarely build big stacks....

The point I want to make is that when there are huge fish in a deep live game then playing tight and waiting for your overpair against a fish is just horrible. When some of these fish limp in LP and you're HJ/CO/BTN it's wrong to think "I can't wait to get 22-AA/AJ+/KQ to ISO this donk" you should be opening an enormous range (for value)

Don't fall into this trap... Make sure you're putting yourself in spots to be the first one to "skin the cat".... The only "cost" of taking this strategy is higher variance and that should be fine.

The funny thing is that the average Low(-to-Mid)LSNL player I face considers me a "nit-reg" who folds way too much pre-flop and appears at times "scared." Despite that, my lifetime average at 5/10 is 5.8 bb/hr, at 2/5 is 8.3 bb/hr, and at 1/2 is 12 bb/hr. Based on where along the continuum of skill level and understanding you fall, the perception of what a "nit-reg" (or any other player type) is certainly changes.

A game with limpers is a good game imo. If the table is not limping and waiting for big hands. I leave or table change asap.

yes and no. depends on stack sizes. if i am at a table with 50-80 bb effective stacks then yes i agree, but if stack sizes are 250bb+ then no.

Thanks for feedback. In this case, I was lucky and ran into bottom of his range 99, donk fish had KQo. Board thankfully bricked out and I won. I think after more consideration, maybe a fold here would have been better.

The incidence of l/rr being low/medium PPs goes way up in MP, ime. Muchs less common in EP.

opinions appreciated on this hand:

V1: Asian woman..mid 20s..appears aggressive. One hand of note. She Raised UTG to 25 and folded to the BB''s 3bet. BB showed TT and she showed AJo

V2: mid thirties male. Have not seen him get out of hand. He sat down 20 minutes ago. He raised a straddle in LP...everyone folded and he showed AKs. Another hand, he 3bet an unknown's EP raise and followed through on a low flop to take it down and showed QQ. One other hand, he raised/4bet and called a 5bet-shove with KK, which held against QQ. he didn't look too happy/comfortable calling the 5bet

Hero: lost a big hand when a 12 outer on the flop missed and is down to $275. Have not been particularly active so maybe neutral image.

V1 raises UTG to $25. one caller and V2 3bets to $65 in LP...folds to hero in the SB with AKo. hero is short stacked $275. V1 has 500ish and v2 has $750

shove or fold??

What was the size of V2's 3b with QQ?

$65..same amount as the hand in question

I shove here, but I am generally fine getting in AI with AK for 100bbs or less.

What do you think of each villain's range and are you counting on any FE in this spot? Does the fact that we have less than 100bb make this an auto-shove spot, regardless of villain types and history?

FWIW, I agree with your assessment, but would like to know if you think there is any FE here?

Yes, with these V's I expect we have a lot of FE. V1's already shown that she opens relatively wide in EP and doesn't call 3-bets light. I expect only the very top of her range (prob only KK+) to continue. V2 seems competent, but uncomfortable. Your 4-bet should look very strong to him. If he was iffy about the KK hand (I assume 100BBs deep), I expect he'll often fold AK here, and maybe JJ, both of which I think are in his 3-bet range.

If we're called, we may be in 20% equity trouble, but I expect we get a lot of folds here, and to be flipping as often as crushed (due to card removal) if called.

+1

I feel like I got myself in a bad spot here.

Effective stacks: a little less than $200.

Hero is UTG, villain UTG +1. Villain has been OK, but not great. Not a total fish, but made some mistakes.

Hero raises to $12 ($1/$2 NL) with AQo ... UTG calls.

Flop is Q 9 8 rainbow. I bet $20. He calls. Turn is an A. I bet $45. He shoves for $120 more.

I was actually planning to check the turn unimproved. But I improved.
Board: Ad Qc 8s 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.800% 69.76% 02.04% 1504 44.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 28.200% 26.16% 02.04% 564 44.00 { QQ-88, A4s+, KQs, QTs+, JTs, 98s }

Is that stove range too wide?

C-bet seems plenty big enough to remove a lot of that range. A4s+ is not calling flop, and, of course, JT doesn't have to be suited here, though it's more likely. I doubt TT or JJ take this line. They could get to turn, but they're not shoving over your bet.

I think his range is more like QQ,99-88,AQs,KQs,QTs+,98s,AQo,KQo,JTs,JcTs,JhTd (just giving him 2 JTo combos, against which you have 53% equity, or if we include all JTo combos you are down at 42.7% equity.

Of course with the money in the pot, it's still a call, since you are only being charged 31%.

i wasn't happy with my call to be honest. i felt like i was beat and drawing to 4 outs, but it was one of those nights where hitting top two pair just seemed like the nuts.

$1/$2 players are so damn straight-forward 95 percent of the time, it seemed like a spot where i was WB but i had set up a bad spot SPR wise ... would you just check the turn?

No, I'd pretty much always bet turn for value with top-two on a rainbow board with only one way to make a straight. I wouldn't be happy when I got shoved on, but it's a clear crying-call.

I think turn is a clear bet/fold...Not being results oriented but the A on the turn cannot possibly improve villain's range of hands, and lessens the likelihood that villain is semibluffing, especially since the board is rainbow....Your hand doesn't beat much, given the strength villain has shown on turn...This looks much more like a made straight, rather than a set...and a set much more than 2pair or TT, JJ, etc.
With pot odds of 275/120, villain needs to show up with an inferior hand roughly 1 out of 3 times for this call to be profitable...I just don't think that is the case

Surely Villain could also have A9s or A8s?

Other than that I very much agree with the above.

Not true--there's a big difference between needing the best hand 33% of the time and needing 33% equity.

For example (and this is purely theoretical and not associated with this particular hand), suppose we only have the best hand 25% of the time but when we do, we're 80% favorites. The other 75% of the time, our opponent is a 60% favorite.

Our equity is this scenario is exactly 50%.

I wasn't referencing our equity when stating we need to be good 1 out of 3 times.

the pot is 275 and it costs us 120 to call. If we run this event three times and we win once and lose twice, we end up winning 275 once and losing 240 (2x120) for a net of +35

Maybe I misunderstood--when you wrote "villain needs to show up with an inferior hand roughly 1 out of 3 times" I assumed you meant at the moment of our call (i.e., after the turn). If you meant after the river is dealt, then sure.

One of the first hands at the table, I have no reads on villain other then he is a amateur, he speaks english but looks foreign, he is in his late 40s early 50s, wearing a cowboy hat and alligator boots. We are in Chicago by the way so he is not a local lol. 1/2 NL.

Preflop: Hero opens for $10 with 88 in MP, Villain min raises to $20 in MP, folds around, Hero calls.

Flop: ($40) 249r, Hero checks, Villain bets $40, Hero?

Do you guys just fold here?

Stacks? Yeah, I fold here, almost always, but if very short of deep could be different.