Good god don't fold. wtf

Pre is meh unless we're button, CO, or we can own the nit.

Of course, he can play various Qx and bluffs this way. We're so close to the top of our range. Folding is just bad.

Ya, I didn't fold.
Crying call, 90% sure I'm F'D here.

Was... 22

I had too good of a hand to fold, but you're 100% ready to be shown boats or missed heart BDS

If you're truly ****ed 90% of the time then it's a trivial fold.

Keep track of the number of times you see someone of this type bet this big with a worse Q or bluff a busted draw to a constant show of strength. Your 90% ****ed estimate, while obviously an exaggeration, might be closer to the mark than you think.

I'm not saying it's an easy fold, and I'm not even sure I can make it in real time at the table. And you also have to be really confident of the player type you're playing against ("ha ha, I've tarped him with my QJ!"). I wouldn't beat myself up about calling, but it's probably not correct.

GcluelessNLnoobG

$130 error against AQ,KQ,Ah4h,22.

Which is only true if he plays all parts of this range the same way.

ETA: Not to say he couldn't play various parts of this range a different % of the time to make a call still profitable, but it's not nearly as devastating as you're making it out to be.

Gwhichhedoesn't,imoG

5/5, 500 eff

Red kings in SB
Unknown MP1 open to 20, 2 callers
I 3b to 125, only MP1 calls
Flop (295): T75ccc
V bets 125 out of turn
I check, V bet 125, I jam to 375

Reasonable to GII OTF with SPR 1.5? Drawing dead vs flushes but villain could definitely be doing this with naked Ac, Kc. We have equity if he has 2x as many draws vs made flushes.

Yeah, looks fine. He could have a ton of worse stuff, any JJ any QQ for starters.

2/5 hero is the effective stack with $400

Decent spot to slowplay on a flop where I’m not going to be bluffing often?

Main villain is very loose aggressive, perceives hero as very tight. He’s a maniac though so at 1/3 that hasn’t stopped him from getting out of line against me from time to time. He did make a disciplined fold against me though with top pair good kicker after I bet/called flop, called turn, and donked a river that completed the flush.

He seems to be playing very loose at 2/5 but definitely not quite as aggressive since the game has some competent pros.

Three of the villains are loose passive and a solid pro is in the BB.

2 limps including v in the LJ. I limp 66 in the HJ, sb completes and BB checks.

Flop: 67Tr

Pot:$23.

X, V1 in LJ $20, H? H$55, folds to V1 who calls.

We don’t block top pair which is nice, but V is betting a lot of air and draws so top pair is a smaller part of is betting range than the average player.

He’s also definitely capable of 3 betting the flop with hands like QJ or a pair and a gutshot.

Turn T

Pot:$133

X, H? H$65, V folds.

That's a very face up line & think many rec players are capable of such laydowns. Breaking a betting lead usually indicates a lot of strength. Don't think many other hands in your range would donk river there when a flush comes in lest it's backdoor.

Hand in question... I think we can charge a bit more OTF. I wouldn't flat b/c 9,8,5,even J 4 or 3 aren't good cards for us. I like the 1/2 pot OTT. Guy didn't have anything we could extract more value from anyways. If he has trips here & flats fearing 98, we're still likely getting looked up for 1/2 pot on most rivers.

Line looks fine to me. You could maybe sneak in a bigger flop raise but I don't think it's a big deal.

Definitely a super nutted line in the flush hand. I went for that line since it was actually a 3 way pot and the maniac checked the turn to a passive button who bet tiny. Button was very unlikely to bet river. Main point of the story was that villain isn’t a complete drooler even though he’s a maniac.

In this hand, I definitely see the merit of a larger flop sizing. The reason I opted for the smaller sizing was to make it more plausible I was protecting top pair. I concur that he’s not very likely not laying down trips for 1/2 pot on turn and brick rivers.

If he’s only playing premiums and only showing down big hands then he’s not TAG. Still calling without more of a history.

1/3. 7-handed. Villain is a decent/thinking TAG regular (ISO's CO/BTN quite wide preflop, etc.). Most of our dynamic involves me 3-betting him, and him folding. No significant history of him 3b me. Hero plays a nitty-TAG game, and we've played enough that he should have some concept that I build my strategy around raise/folds and bet/folds.

Is it too MUBSy to assign a guy like this AK/JJ+ only? I'm really quite terrible at knowing what to do w/ my AQ/AJs/TT-88 range here against someone who, in theory, should have a wider 3b range than just AK/JJ+.

Hero ($350, HJ): A Q

UTG straddles $6, fold, Hero r $25, CO c $25, fold, Villain (SB) 3b $95, fold x 2, Hero ???

Jam or fold I think the disciplined play is to just fold here and wait for a better spot

5/10 quick line check with the turned nutz

K9dd in BB
MP1 open to 35, 2 callers, I complete
Flop (145): QT3dd
Checks around
Turn (145): Ad
MP1 bet 45, OMC BTN raise to 100
Hero 3b to 275?

2/5 800 effective

Utg opens to 20, utg+1 calls, mp calls, hero on button with pocket queens makes it 110.

Utg calls. Utg+1 makes it 350. Mp folds. Hero all in or fold? Villain is unknown and tight as far as I can tell. First time he’s raised in 2 hours.

Yeah, I assumed it was shove or fold. According to the FE calculator I only need 49% to break even (assuming 25% PE when called), so wondering if we might as well shift AQ into our "bluff" category here?

Stacks? Assuming no reads & assuming we're deep, yeah we want to build the pot to play for stacks, so do that. Sizing seems good. If you have reason to believe both players will fold to a 3b, flatting is possibly better.

Stacks v important here, also, I would lead turn

Nasty spot, I hate folding QQ there but this is AA (and some KK) a lot - I would play AA like this for sure.

If you have been splashy and raising/3 betting a lot then I might consider cramming but if not and against a tight looking unknown I probably fold and do no tell a ****ing soul what I just did

Don't threebet against this player. Taking a flop there multiway in position with QQ is a really good spot.

I would fold without too much thought. We should have little FE against a guy getting in ~1/3rd of his stack, we pretty much have the bottom of our range, and there's at least one other guy in the pot.

Gthey'renotplayingbackatme,theyarenotplayingbackat meG

1/2 game is only 20 mins in. V is 24 year old kid with $300, looks studious with a button up shirt. 1pm on a wednesday. H is 30 year old button up white male with $500. H raises $11 with red QQ after a limp, V on BTN calls only. Flop 962dsd H cbet 15 V cals quickly. Turn offsuit 9. With SPR of 5:1 are you betting this turn exploititively? GTO prob says check but do you bet anyways?

Ck against people who don't seem like droolers.
If he seems like a sicko who would know it's a blank for your range and would continue to float AK/AQ maybe we can bet again.

I think you misread the HH. The Villain that OP described flatted the open from UTG in UTG+1, then backraised after Hero 3bet.

Oh, right. That's fine then and I guess I fold.