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Originally Posted by ChrisV
I'm not super certain I'm correct here but I'd just bet the flop. I think Vs catching up happens too rarely to be worthwhile. For example, if the PFR has AK, he's ~12% to hit something OTT and it's not like you stack him when that happens. Let's assume you get $35 from him OTT and then 75 OTR. (35 + 75) * 0.12 = $13.20. I feel like your expectation on an immediate bet is better than that, because as well as getting the immediate call you increase the size of the pot.
Thanks for providing some actual math. Based on the table dynamic, betting the flop was likely to get 2 folds. Despite all 3 of use being rec players, we were the 3 best players at the table.
Any non-J hand was simply not paying whatever I was betting on the flop, unless I made it look like a spaz (and made it like $13). If in your games Vs call this flop with random trash, then god bless your games. Remember, this is a paired rainbow board, so any draws would turbo muck to any bet.
I guess this hand isn't really a good candidate for this thread - there was too much context between me and main V.
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This is a dream flop where you are 77% against a hand like AJ which many will consider the nuts here, and you are 83% against over pairs like Aces. You have the button which should make your bet look very bluffy. Also, live low stakes players are notorious for slow playing their hands (because they are TERRIBLE at poker). This is like the typical spot for a live low stakes player to check their AJ for the same reason that OP is slow playing 44...to let them catch up.
Wow, this is like reading something from another planet. I'm betting the flop here with AJ like 90% of the time. I couldn't care less what % we are against AJ or AA here, because the likelihood of a V having those on that flop is tiny. We don't flop boats often enough to just assume Vs will flop the 2nd nuts or have AA and get their stacks in, just to blow every other hand in their range out and get $0.
How much?
Results:
In the end, I'm still not convinced about betting flop. I think a turn raise was appropriate however, but I'm not sure about the sizing. Do I just min-click it back or make a real raise?
Wouldn't that make V more likely to check on the river? What sizing do we pick on the river?