Jamming 300 to win 75 is a little thin with players left to act. It's especially pointless if a large 3 bet only gets a 4-bet from superior hands, which is usually the case in low stakes with a hand like AK. We could 3-bet larger though...say to 125, then we can call off a 4-bet shove easily. I'm not sure about the logic about betting larger to give ourselves better odds to call a 4-bet, but the primary reason to size up is to reduce the chance we get flat called. Getting flat called with AK sucks when we don't flop well.

Your range is pretty MUBSY. I gave the guy all AA, KK, half QQ, and bit over half AK as an optimistic projection and the call was slightly +EV. But...realistically unless we know this villain very well we aren't concerned so much with what HE does in this spot but rather how the set of all similar acting villains acts. And against that set I think it's probably 3/3 AA combos, 2 / 3 KK combos (some flat with KK, IDK why), 1-2/6 QQ combos, and maybe 2/9 AK combos. Definitely a fold though.

Even though we have blockers to AA and KK and there are as many QQ combos as KK+, in this spot I expect to KK+ almost twice as often as QQ. Most with QQ are flat calling and then stacking off if they flop an OP. Though sometimes you find people who flat call and the flop is AKX and they call down anyway. Makes no sense.

With two people in on that board? Flat. keep in mind that getting a half stack from two people is just as good as getting a full stack from one person

Someone likely has an overpair and i'd like to squeeze more out of them on the river

I would personally raise the flop if your image is aggressive at all.

But anyway, just flat the turn. BB has been leading the action and there are really no bad rivers for you unless someone randomly hits a 2-outer. I would just jam after BB bets the river. If he checks, I don't know...you jamming looks insanely strong but we can't necessarily rely on the button to bet. I think I would jam in that case and hope they get sticky.

Missed blind: pist or wait for straddle or not big difference long term?

I always straddle. I think straddling from the button is +EV anyway, from the CO usually +EV or at least better than paying to play OOP, so missing the blinds essentially costs you nothing but time.

Can only straddle utg where i play

So if you miss the blinds you have to wait an entire orbit to straddle UTG?? If that's the case just post the blinds IMO.

V is a maniac. Opening wide/big. Not sure what his 4b range is, but saw him this session 3b bvb, get 4b shoved on & called off A7o ~ 150BBe. Is my 3b/GII plan too thin here?

Hero (OTB, $300): 8c 8s

Fold x 4, V r $15, CO c $15, H 3b $60, fold x 2, V 4b all-in, fold, Hero c all-in

It's marginal. I hate to be calling off a middle pair like this (would much rather be the shover, of course) given the massive jump in sizing and the fact that it was multiway awhile. To call is 240 into a pot of 375, not great odds of approx. 1.5:1.

I dunno if we can put hands like A7o in V's range here despite the history hand, since the A7o hand was BvB and V 3! it and then likely decided (whether he was right or not) he had the right price to call off the shove against any hand that wasn't AA.

If I'm being generous, I range V at 77+, A9s+, ATo+, KJs+. Someone better at range calcs than me will have to let me know if it's a call versus that range. In reality he might be tighter though and doing it with like {99+, ATs+, AQo+} which is way worse to be calling off 88.

I know you called him a maniac, but I think I need a bit more info before I'm calling off 88 here and riding the variance train. Would much rather find a spot to shove over his maniac raises.

Pretty easy call imo. Esp given the overlay.

Against a maniac, once you throw in the 60, the rest is a call. But, overall, is the line better than set-mining? Doubtful I'd guess, unless he's a maniac's maniac.

Appreciate the feedback, and agreed the history I referenced is not a perfect parallel, but it does give some insight into his crazy/gamble factor.

Oh yeah, it's 1/2, so we're semi-deep here to start, but like I mentioned he raises big almost always w/ like 25% of hands from AP (42s+, etc.), and rarely folds pre-flop vs aggression. Talks alot, big ego. IDK if that makes a difference.

Sailboats point of set-mining crossed my mind of course, as I definitely had implied odds post, but I'm also crushing his range pre & he doesn't seem to have a fold button. Yeah 88 plays not great post when we don't spike, but w/ control of the hand & position and a big equity edge, I opted to 3b, and guessed that he'd at least have some spazz in his 5b range considering how active he was, or at least overplaying stuff like AJ/77/JTs, etc. as YOLO-hands.

If he really doesn't have a fold button pre and can spaz with 42s and the like, than yeah this is a fist pump GII. But if you're gonna call it off instead of shoving on him, hope you're ready to reload because we're mostly flipping and I think we're crushed more often than we're crushing.

2/5 game that turned into 5/10

Villain in this hand is a wealthy rec. I have 1200 he covers. Loose passive. I open black queens to 35 UTG, he is the only caller in MP.

Flop 679 with two hearts. I lead for 55, he calls. Turn is an offsuit ace, no backdoor flush draw. I bet 110, he calls. River offsuit 3, it goes check check.

Thoughts please.

seems kinda standard on a draw heavy board against an old guy who chases a lot

"If our hand is strong enough that theoretically our villain would never fold it, is it wrong to always call it off ourselves?"

I pose this question/view pretty frequently whenever a thread comes up and everyone wants to hero fold a set getting 3:1 because an draw came in, and villain "just always has it" and no one ever really responds to it.

The cards even out over a long period of time. In theory, if V has a set when we hit a straight on the river, and he's just never considering folding, if we're on the opposite end calling should be neutral EV. The kicker is that sometimes when we call it off, V will show up with a worse hand that he's betting for value, often a hand that we would never be playing the same way. This would make calling it off +EV in the long run.

Anyone able to counter this view?

It could be that most of the board just has such a nitty image that whenever they're getting reraised/played back at they're just always beat. That's for sure not the image I have personally, and I'm a well known reg at my casino.

No, it's that unknowns at LLSNL just don't value bet rivers anywhere near thinly enough. It's not based on our images, it's based on the fact that the way that most players suck is to only bet/raise the near nuts against almost all Vs.

+1, bullseye Garlick.

Basically people vastly overestimates their own image and how that influences how your random villain play against you. (Limon have gone on couple of epic rants about this topic).

Hint: more often than not it doesent matter at all, and if you think it does you are probably levelling yourself too much into making various mistakes.

1/3 live. Effective stacks about $300.

hero opens AQo in the LJ to 12, big fish in sb and decent 50’s guy calls in the BB. 50’s guy has some tricks up his sleeve but mostly plays straight forward. He 3 bets hands like 99-AK at a very high frequency.

Flop AJ4r.

Pot:33.

Checks to hero who bets $20 and just he Bb calls.

Turn 3r.

Cc.

River K.

Pot:77.

He bets $60.

I get that I checked turn in order to call river, but the K is probably the second worst card in the deck after a T. I block QT but he definitely has it in his range, he also has KJ. I would be surprised if he has much AK here but it’s definitely possible. He definitely has a lot of AJ here. He also has 44.

Feels like he would have to be turning one pair into a bluff here in a spot where he doesn’t have to given that I haven’t shown much strength.

At 75-100 BB’s I’ve definitely slam dunk gotten it in against a couple maniacs with 77-99 but at 150 it definitely starts getting thin. It’s really hard to say without being there. I think worst case he has like 77+ AT+ KQs in which case you have 48% so it’s at worst fine.

I like the whole hand and now call the river. We checked back the turn for this exact reason, so let's follow thru with our plan, especially against a guy who has tricks up his sleeve.

ETA: I get that on this board he probably has a lotta hands that he doesn't need to turn into bluffs, so admittedly that is a little concerning. But we raised in LP, cbet into just 2 opponents, and then checked back turn; our hand looks like it could literally be anything and really weak. He's got some tricks up his sleeve and could possibly be making a play here. He could also be value betting worse (thinking any A is good here). And one more thing to consider: our hand looks extremely weak here to the point it would have a difficult time calling a bet; doesn't a bigger hand perhaps size a bit smaller to make sure it gets paid off by our weak hand? In the end we only have to be good here 1/3rd of the time for this to be a profitable call, and against a guy with tricks up his sleeve I'm guessing we are.

Gnicehandifyoucalled,imoG

Badreg - you'd have to overlay 1) he's turning a K or QJ into a bluff, 2) with this large sizing, 3) or owning himself with AT-

It's probably a fold. as you mentioned, we block QT and he's got very few bluffs here in this configuration.

Does this guy call you OTF with hands like 88? If not seems pretty hard for him to have a bluff. I agree he probably just checks a K or J. No reason to turn those into bluffs.

Could you be good? Sure. Are you good a third of the time or more? I am skeptical. If he doesn't call your flop bet with lots of low PP (the hands most likely he would turn into a bluff) then there just aren't enough chances to turn the hand into a bluff. If the guy is capable of reverse floating you with all kinds of hands like naked BDFD he obviously has more bluffs but he probably doesn't do that.

You get any live reads off the guy? Timing tells and the like? IME mostly straightforward guys who occasionally get tricky leak when they're being tricky. Their normal pattern is different somehow.

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Been winning at 1/3 over a small sample size and plan on taking a few shots at 5/5 over the next month. Will be buying in for 100bb. Had a couple questions about range balancing and light 3betting/squeezing that I've read about but never really utilized at the lower stakes I play at:

(1) Is 3betting with a significant non-value range (not TT, AQ+) a spew with a 100bb stack? Should I only add in 3bet bluffs with low SCs and suited wheel aces when I have a read that a villain will fold his open to a 3bet?

(2) Related to 1, is squeezing from the blinds with non-premiums ever profitable with a 100bb stack?

(3) I've been playing a purely exploitative unbalanced strategy at 1/3. What's the best way to start balancing my ranges? Check back flopped TP/2p sometimes when IP? Flat with AA/KK IP against opener with no limpers?