What to do when you have 3-4 limps in front of you followed by a tiny raise (say to 10 in a 1/3 game). Do you treat this like a legit raise or more like a glorified limp?

Depends on the player. Some players are just totally clueless about sizing. If the player has previously shown they are capable of normal sizing, then I frequently attack these raises, because they're then basically guaranteed not to be a premium hand. Often they're a hand like 77 where the player wants to juice the pot in case they flop a set.

given how low the effective stacks are in the average game, it's still a raise because of what it is doing to the SPR and your implied odds

But, how I treat it from 3 betting stand point is totally player and situation dependent - some people will make that 10 dollar raise as "their raise." Others have bet sizing tells. Etc.

yeah, it's really too vague a question to provide much insight on, albeit it would immediately make me think the raiser is a fish.

I think it's rarely a really strong hand though, so it's more likely to be a high implied odds type hands like a small/mid pair or suited connected cards where raiser wants to beef up the pot for if/when they flop huge

I'd jam A2s as the preflop 3bettor. 2 combos
I'd also jam 88, there are like 3 combos
jam 78s, 1 combo?
I'd prob jam AA too, some % of the time.

run the simzzz

i do not think v would 3bet 78s? if he is, is he 3betting 88?
villains usually dont chose both hands to 3bet

In games 2/5 or lower I’m starting to feel like once a villain calls a large bet OTT, they’re calling the river a large % of the time, unless the board drastically changes. I think once fish have put a signif amount of $ in the middle, they don’t want to fold so they’re looking for any reason to call. My thinking is that in good barrel spots I should just go for the kill ott and MOST OF THE TIME give up otr if it doesn’t work.

On the flip side, let’s say I have AQ on AJXXX, I’m not typically going for fat value OTR, I’ll usually bet small to induce calls from weaker Aces. But if the above is correct I’m probably missing a lot of value.

I’m interested in everyone else’s experience/thoughts.

Good post and interesting topic.

I certainly agree: fish without doubt gets more emotionally in a pot once they have put certain amount of money in. Being emotionally attached to a pot is not something that is exclusive for fish of course, but to some degree for every player. But when it comes to fish/whales you can exploit this fact alt more mercilessly, because fish amongst other things have worse control of their impulses- and they kick in when pots get big.

These patterns you can also see in other ways. Like for example a pattern i see really often is that fish/whales are not folding if they fire both the flop and the turn- because their range is being so weighted towards hands they are simply not able to fold. So i often pile the turn in many spots, even with ridicilous big sizing- because i feel like i get paid off so often from a range that doesent have much (if any) bet/folding hands in them.

Same if fish 3 bets with a big overpair and they flop "clean" on lets say 3-9-8 flop or 2-5-6, especially with KK/AA they are not folding postflop. If you flop two pair or a set, you can fastplay and use bombsizing on the flop to make them commit right there- or on the other hand if you need to draw you can easily verify your implied odds because you know chances are skyhigh that fish arent able to fold KK/AA even on later streets if draws come in.

Being able to find that threshold amount, and gauge when the fish is feeling fully emotionally attached to the pot is simply huge.

This is a very interesting topic and something I'm trying to understand better myself in order to make my bluffs more successful and also find those spots I can squeeze out very thin value. I'll share my thoughts and pardon the lack of organization.

First...I seem to get looked up ridiculously often by like 2nd pair or an underpair or TPNK. OTOH when I bet/bet/bet AK on AXX I don't seem to be as good as often as I should be if fish are really calling with like 2nd pair. This seems to be contradictory at first glance. BUT...

I think the primary difference is one of dynamic vs. static boards. When we flop TPTK the board is typically static or semi-static. E.g., AK on A84r. If we're ahead OTF we're probably still ahead OTR. But if we get called twice it's not looking good because there are so few draws. Villains may get to the river with AX but if they call a river shove we're often beat by Aces up or a set. And they're unlikely to call down with e.g., TT here even if they get a relatively clean runout like A8439tt because they got a bad flop. They likely peel once and give up. They get less emotionally invested when their hand appears to be a loser early on.

But now suppose we raise in HJ with KQ and villain calls OTB with TT on 762

Now villain flopped well and is happy, but being typically passive our villain just flat calls our C-bet. The turn board is 762A and we fire a second barrel. In this spot villain typically sighs, asks how much it is, then calls after 10 or 15 seconds, which makes me think I can bluff a lot of rivers. The river board is 762A5 and villain looks unhappy so we figure along with the reaction to the Ace he is capped at an underpair, and we fire a third barrel. He tanks and tanks and says "if you have it you have it" and calls. We lose. Villain got emotionally invested OTF and didn't want to let it go.

In a lot of ways this board is much worse for villain with TT than the previous one. But he flopped well and put in a lot of money with what he thought was the best hand so he decides to stand his ground. On the static board where we're betting for value he flops poorly and gives up by the turn. On the dynamic board, it's typically going to take all three barrels to get him to fold an underpair or possibly even 7x, and in my experience the third barrel needs to be pretty damn large against typical low stakes sticky villains, like around a PSB. And he'll still call sometimes.

One thing I'm experimenting with is trying to get more value on dynamic boards when I think villain is weak but sticky. For instance if I had KK in the previous hand, against some villains I can bet all three streets for value amazingly enough. Or especially if I had AA and the board was 762K5 I can usually get three full streets from a hand like 88 to QQ despite the nasty runout because fish just don't like to fold overpairs to the flop and my image is fairly aggressive. If the board were 7625K they are pretty much never folding an overpair once calling the turn bet, despite the nasty river card. They are too emotionally (and financially) invested at that point.

Another important aspect of dynamic boards is figuring out if villain is on a draw or has a made hand. Sometimes I get a live read and am very confident villain is drawing, sometimes I have no read but I know how villain plays and how many made hands he has vs. draws, etc. If we suspect villain has a draw, we can barrel dynamic boards with small river bets and if our draw bricks but villain might have a better draw, e.g., we have 76 vs. A4 on T95JQ we both bricked and here the board is so scary there's no need to shove. A 1/4 PSB or even smaller is enough to get villain off his busted draws while a PSB might not be enough to get him to fold T9 even though it's basically a bluff catcher, so on this board if we bluff we should go small to target the busted draws.

So my point is...it's important to figure out three things when implementing barreling strategies, particularly whether to fire the third barrel

A) Is the board static or dynamic? If it's static, a double barrel will usually be sufficient to get villain to fold his weaker hands. A third barrel is not going to work too often because once villain calls OTT we can be pretty sure he likes his hand. If it's dynamic, it's more often going to take a triple barrel if villain doesn't fold OTF because villain either has a made hand he liked a lot OTF or has a draw he won't fold until the river. On dynamic boards, we should usually not bluff the turn unless we think we can bluff a decent number of rivers also (or we have massive equity like an OESFD).

B) How emotionally invested is villain in the hand? With premium preflop hands that make overpairs OTF it's going to be hard to get a fold even on runouts very bad for villain, and we should frequently give up once the turn barrel is called if we think villain is too emotionally invested to read the board and realize his hand is a bluff catcher.

C) If it's a "wet" board, is villain drawing or do we think he has a made hand? Solid made hands OTF are going to take a larger river bet to get them to fold, and they still may not fold even on bad runouts. My general experience with villains and underpairs leads me to believe they'll fold often enough if the turn and river are both overcards, particularly if some draws come in as well, but probably not if just one overcard falls. When we think villain might fold a made hand, we want to size on the large side. When we think villain has a lot of busted draws, a very small 1/4 PSB is usually sufficient.

Those are, to some extent, conflicting thoughts and representative of weak/tight thinking that I too can be guilty of. However, when we have AQ we block Ax that he can call with, when we have a bluff we are more likely to get called down because we don’t block the Ax that they can call with.

Do you go for value on this river or check it back? 1/3 live.

Limp by unknown 40’s guy, hero makes it $15 OTB with JhJd. He calls.

Pot: $30

Flop: 6h7h3d .

Check, Hero bets $22, villain calls.

Pot: $74.

Turn: Th.

Check, hero bets $45, villain calls.

Pot: $164

River: 2c.

Villain checks.

Do we bet say 1/3 pot here? Seems close with the Jh blocker. He probably has a few combos of 89, let’s say 10 flushes, one combo of 67 one combo of T7. We get called by T8, 9T, AhTx, KhTx, sometimes 99, 97, A7, 87. 88. Sometimes he calls flop with random overcards with a ten and hits as well like AT without the Ah. He probably raises some flushes on the turn or leads some flushes on the river further narrowing his value range.

I kind of thought this was a check back but I put the hand into PIO and as long as we set the villain such that he rarely raises as a bluff it has JhJx as a bet. The main problem though is this could be the type of board where villains are over-folding one pair hands.

Against an unknown I'd size small, but worth noting that if up against a thinking/suspicious player, I'd size large as a level-2 play. It looks pretty bluffy. You can imagine having something like ace high with a big heart, double barrelling the turn when flush+overcard hits, then trying to blast them off their hand on the river. And they look weak, so it doesn't make any level-1 sense to bet big with a value hand. Obviously no way I'm hoping some unknown works all this out though.

Easy bet against most villains. River is a total blank. If you bet the turn no reason to stop IMO unless you know you're up against a villain who plays tons of hearts and likes to x/c with them. I don't think they're putting you on hearts, 54, or 98 too much as the aggressor so I expect most villains to be surprisingly sticky here.

Ok, thanks for the input. Even though river was a blank, my concern was his call range has become too narrow since some of his turn calls might plan to fold river unimproved (e.g. 87/99/Ah8x.) I think this is a spot where I've occasionally been missing value though and will look to bet it more often in the future.

Why did you bet the turn?

This is not a three street value hand unless you have a history of triple barreling and V is prone to call you down light. I'd rather take a b/c/b line that allows us to pick off his river bluffs as well.

Sure. On a dynamic board like this villains will show up with many hands like 7x Tx and 99. You're pretty much never against a bigger OP or he would have raised. He probably doesn't have 54 66 77 33 76 or he would raise the flop (he *should* anyway especially with the sets and 2p). TT is unlikely unless the guy barely raises pre.

The main hand we're worried about is 98 and he could have all combos particularly the non-flushes. We would probably figure 98hh raises as it's the supernuts. We are also somewhat worried about hearts, but given he just x/c the turn and x the river we can discount them somewhat, and there's max 35 heart draws anyway since we have one. But he might play a straight like this.

So final board is 673T2hhdhc. And action was x/c x/c x. I think you're behind up to 15 98 combos, maybe a handful of 2p/sets/54. T7s he might play like this but that's only 3 combos max. He's going to reverse float you a lot OTF with overcards so I expect a LOT of AT/KT/QT/JT/T9/T8, perhaps even hands like T5s/T4s. He's always calling with T8/T9 and probably half the time with the others, so that's about 32 + 27 = 59 combos. I would also give him some 99 combos, perhaps all 6 if we think he's the type to limp this hand from whatever position he was in, perhaps 0 if he's in the CO. I also expect he arrives OTR with A7/K7s/Q7s/J7s/75s/74s pretty often, that's max 30 combos, but he'll fold sometimes OTT and more often OTR so he could have 0 to 30 he'll call a river bet with depending how sticky the guy is.

In total...my guess we're losing to something like 30 - 50 combos, perhaps a bit less depending whether he usually raises his flopped 2p+ and how he plays a turned flush, while we beat at least 60, perhaps closer to 90 depending how sticky he is.

I'm personally skeptical he would he play flopped 2p/sets like this or that he would x/c and x river with a flush, though I've seen it happen so can't discount these hands entirely. But I think you're losing to closer to 30 than 50 combos. Regardless, there are just so many TX in his range that he is never folding to a reasonably sized river bet that we can bet JJ for value.

I don't think villains are overfolding one-pair hands on this board, not with you as the aggressor HU. People get scared of flushes multiway especially when you're the caller and suddenly you lead or x/r. Not so much here, especially when most of his river calling range is TX. Now if the board were 67352hhdhc yeah he might start folding a lot of one pair hands, but when he spikes a T OTT? I just don't think typical LP 1/3 players are capable of laying down something like KT to like a 30 - 40% PSB OTR. The pot is huge compared to the bet and their T could easily be good in their minds. Against some opponents I might even jam JJ here because I don't block anything and my image is pretty aggressive.

I'm curious...does PIO think it's different if we don't have the Jh?

Betting the turn seems fine since he has max 35 flush draws and considerably more TX. Players at this level usually let you know if you're beat, so I like the turn bet with the intention of folding to a raise, checking back scary rivers and betting blank ones.

We shouldn't just x with overpairs every time a flush draw comes in, as it happens way too often, plus turns our hand face up, especially when we have a blocker and it's a high card like the T. This is a great turn (for being a heart) since it gives villain a lot of TP that we still beat.

I tend to like betting turn instead of river in position against weak passive opponents because they will have a lot of hands that will call absolutely call turn because they can still improve but might fold river if they don’t improve (eg Ah8x, 87).

If we are against a tougher opponent with a stronger range and one who will bluff raise more turns and bluff more rivers if we check turn then I like the b/c/b line. I’ve definitely taken both lines before in this spot.

What it does with JJ is going to depend on the river sizing.

If we bet 45% pot on the river it bets almost all JJ.

At 75% pot, against a villain that only raises a couple of combos of bluffs, it thinks JJ with a heart is a bet a little over half the time and without a heart it’s a check.

It’s also going to depend on what preflop ranges we assign for myself and villain, I just made my best guess at what he’s limp calling.

Realistically I think he's CRAI OTR as a bluff close to 0%. I've seen this happen maybe once, where someone x/c x/c x/r as a bluff in a large pot. I've done it at times but I'm not the typical opponent. I'm surprised those extra 10 heart combos when you don't have the J make that big a difference in the evaluation. Interesting.

Is PIO worth it for low stakes play? Seems really interesting program but I'm not sure I can justify the price for the stakes I play. I've also thought about getting PokerSnowie but for now just doing my analysis manually with the help of some basic software like Equilab and Flopzilla.

I'm fine with preflop and flop.

I would typically check back the turn. The main draw got there and we could have even been behind on the flop (or even preflop). Not too worried about Ah3 hand to bet here. We keep the pot under control and can setup a bluff catcher on the river / value bet that perhaps looks a little FOS after our turn check.

As played, I check back the river. He could easily have a crapload of better hands (overpairs, two pairs, sets, straights, even baby flushes) that are simply concerned that we have 3barrelled on this turn card. What worse hand calls the flop and calls a river bet on this runout? A7o, really? (ETA: Ok, I missed 99 and maybe a couple of Tx hands like T9/T8, but still). He'd have to be a massive calling station / think we are a barrelly maniac (but with no history) to do so.

Against all but the most calling stationish of opponents with us having the most aggro of images, I think we mainly valuetown ourselves here with a bet. Most opponents after raking in the pot simply state "I have two pair / set / straight; I can't fold, but I can't bet either on this board".

GcluelessNLnoobG

Why do we think V has Tx after he called flop? I would expect hands like T9 or T8 to c/r flop if they were going to continue, not c/c. Hearts and 98 just hit. 45 was already there.

Basically I think we're targeting 7x here which is way too thin.

And why exactly do we expect him to x/r T9 and T8? Typically passive players just don't do this as much as you'd think. If he does x/r T9 T8 he certainly has fewer sets and 2p. And what happened to AT/KT/QT/JT? These are almost certainly in the guy's limping range, and he's going to reverse float the flop with overcards pretty often unless he's a nit. If he does it half the time with AT/KT/QT/JT that leaves about 20, plus he should have almost all T9 / T8 combos, perhaps reduced somewhat if we expect him to sometimes x/r or fold preflop. But that's about 40 - 50 TX combos. He might also have various TXs for TPNK.

There's MAX 35 flushes he could have and that's if he plays every suited hand and then x/c when he hit and x river, which seems doubtful. We should not be that worried about the flush.

54 and 98 are the most plausible hands that beat us IMO, particularly 98, given the way the hand went down and the fact he may have all 16 combos.

I just think you're leaving significant money on the table not betting here against typical LP sticky opponents. And if they're frequently folding 7x and Tx hands against you on this type of board, you probably aren't bluffing enough.

@GG - yeah it's probably a check back for you because you're a nit and your opponents realize it. Feel like you should put that in your posts as a disclaimer lol.

I don't think people reverse float with two overs as much as you believe they do. I make more loose flop calls than most people in the rooms where I play, and even I wouldn't be reverse floating with T8+ here. I'd be c/r T8 or T9 especially if I had a BDFD, and mayyyybe I'd peel exactly AhTx.

Ha, yes our image plays into this too.

Gstillthinkwevaluetownourselvesagainstmostopponent sG

Also, Shai, I said IF opponent was going to continue with T9 or T8, he's more likely to c/r than c/c. Frankly I think most Vs c/f T9 or T8 here, but the ones that continue with those holdings tend not to c/c a naked gutshot OOP.