Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasDonkem
1/3 100 bb's eff.
utg solid on the nitty side opens to $10, I call from MP with 2's and the blinds call.
QcJc2h sb checks bb donks 25 (also a fairly solid player) I put him on KQ+, QJ, maybe occasionally JJ or QQ but after he flats pre these probably prefer to check raise.
UTG calls but I doubt he's opening QJ or KQ maybe he has AQ+, AKcc ,1 combo of JJ and 1 combo of QQ. (the other combos of QQ JJ would just raise here)
I make it $75, instantly regret the sizing it should be $100+ as I'm up against a strong range from both players and want max value before any cards kill action and to set up an easy turn shove.
sb folds then bb flats and then UTG jams?! I can pretty much rule out QQ, JJ for bb as he would surely try to get it in? So AQ, QJ?
Should this be an easy fold vs UTG as the flop flat, 3 bet jam should be really nutted. If this is only QQ, JJ I am super crushed. If he ever can shove AKcc here I am still crushed. If he could also spaz backraise 3 combos of AA ((containing Ac) I'm not convinced of this)then it's 52% in his favour or 3 KK combo's then it's 54% to us.
Are we always just folding here?
I nit fold preflop. Raiser is solid which means purely setmining against him is unlikely to be profitable and we don't have anyone else in the pot to pad our immediate odds / improve our IO, plus someone could still raise behind us, plus we're in horrible relative position postflop if it goes multiway. If a bunch of other people at the table were passive horrendous postflop payoff stations, I'm cool with the flat and hoping everyone else comes along; but otherwise (and it sounds like two of the people we ended up with in the pot are solid), meh, imo.
The basic problem with preflop is the situation we're in postflop. Both of these opponents sound solid. Which means they're going to continue if they feel it's profitable (mega draws and sets that are crushing us) or fold if they know they are beat (solid raiser folds AA here without much of a second though, right?). Basically our IO aren't nearly as good as we think they are, and are RIO are worse that we think they are. If a solid player decides to play for stacks when we have bottom set, we're typically in trouble.
But yeah, I'd raise larger.
FWIW, we're doing fine against AKcc (we're definitely not crushed). But yeah, basically a solid players range here is QQ/JJ/AKcc and stuff like ATcc/T9cc/etc plus have to add spazz AA/KK/QJs some percentage of the time too. I'm too lazy to stove, but my guess is overall we're doing ok against that with all this dead money although with BB flatting obviously some of our redraw outs (if we need them) are likely dead. Think we're likely forced to call at this point.
ETA: Did some quick stoving and it looks like a pretty simple call at this point. However, it's interesting that our overall EV is only about 13x (+/- depending on what you range him on exactly), which is kinda meh for setmining (such as when you take into account all the times you flop a set and his KK sees a A high flop and we make nothing). Note that if our raise takes it down on the flop that we win $30 + $25 + $25 - $8 (rake/BBJ/tip) for a profit of 7x. Again, purely setmining likely isn't nearly as profitable as you think it might be here, imo.
GcluelessnitnoobG
Last edited by gobbledygeek; 03-07-2018 at 01:15 PM.