Almost positive he never has two pair. He sees me as nittish; the only hand that two pair beats is a failed limp/raised overpair (what else am I betting the flop with?), and I'm snap giving up on that to the turn check/raise (as is the Nit who likely has an overpair at this point, which he probably knows, which is why he'd probably just go into check/call check/call and possibly donk river mode).

GcluelessrangingnoobG

Sure, i totally agree that 2 pair isnt a big part of villains range the way this hand was played- but its in the mix and 1-3 villains isnt flawless robots or top pros that never make mistakes. People do some weird stuff from time to time, that we 2+2ers have a hard time understanding.

Bottom line is i dont think we can fold- thats what i am trying to say. Its a cliche at this point, but were just to high up in our own valuerange with top set on this flop/runout. Sometimes were due to lose our stack, and if he manages to show up with 8-10 nice hand sir- reload time.

You need to be right 24% of the time. If V has 4 combos of T8s and 1.5 combos of 66 it's a call.

Would you guys play 66 like this against two of the bigger nits in the game? I actually think a loose closing-the-flop-action-for-lol$ 77 is perhaps more likely given that it can beat 66/22.

Also note he's in the BB. So he can easily have T8o / 85o and isn't limited to the suited ones.

GcluelesscoolernoobG

Yes, very likely. One of the reasons is that nits have KK/AA in their early pos limp range that they failed to limp/reraised pre with, and many nits have a very hard time letting those hands go on low boards like this postflop. (Even though i know you spesifically woudnt make those kind of mistakes GG)

Pretty sure he thinks both me and the other Nit will fold overpairs quite easily to a check/raise in a multiway pot here.

Also, with an idiot being trapped in the pot on the flop and 3 interested parties on an OESD, wouldn't 66/22 attempt to put in more money on the flop?

But, agreed. It's not as if Villain is super human and incapable of mistakes or making moves that even I question.

GcluelessrangenoobG

jesus gg it’s no wonder you feel you have “no postflop edge” when you think your villains are omnipotent

Whoops. Well if BB peels flop with 85o then he's definitely loose enough to have other crap here. I'm still calling. I've played a lot of live poker and I see enough spots where I think someone is usually nutted and then they show up with random crap that I am snapping with 99 here at all stakes.

Just an honest evaluation of my game compared to the people I play with. At most tables I feel I only have a significant postflop edge over a couple at the table, while mostly ~breakevenish with rake against a lot of the others. This table was no exception, and especially the 2 main opponents in this hand. I do believe I usually have a significant preflop edge against most players as most are too loose / too aggro preflop (thus why I've now done a 180 in my preflop BI strategy and believe shortstacking is probably the best route).

But of course everything is relative to one's own skill level. I'm no crusher, and I think sadly this hand is another example of that.

GcluelessNLnoobG

GG we have had many discussions through the last 2-3 years, and we been disagreeing on lot of stuff. However i have to say you dont need to be too harsh on yourself here. Nearly everybody looks like a fool when we run into the very top of peoples ranges, and especially when we run bad over an extended period of time. (Running into the absolute top of peoples ranges over and over is a type of runbad very few people think about, its not only getting sucked out on when you get the money in good).

I havent played with you before,but your true level of skill have nothing to do with going broke for under 100 BB in this hand with top set.

T8/85 are getting 5:1 closing the action. So in order to break-even chasing their gutshot, they'd have to make up a single PSB on the turn that will be going 4ways. Against 2 nits that might have monsters / overpairs plus an idiot.

With 77 he'd have to make up about 17 bets, so like a turn and river PSB. Course, my guess is he's probably not thinking that; he's probably think "lol $10 to see the turn to see if I can hit my set".

The gutshot chasing actually seems fairly standard in this spot, imo; the set chasing probably wrong but probably not as horrendously wrong as some might think. Overall, even if I give you that a call here with some hands might be a little loose, the fact remains that this guy ain't an idiot, and is likely a winning player (not a crusher by any means, but I'm beginning to question whether anyone is). He isn't going to hurp-durp 76 into two pair and treat it like the nuts against the opponents he is up against.

GcluelessNLnoobG

dude this has nothing to do with YOUR skill level, it’s assuming the villains are thinking along these lines and they’re probably not despite how good/reggy you perceive them as

$20 -$25 on the flop.

So every one at small stakes is just hurp-durp-I-haz-76-TWO-PEAR!-and-it-doesn't-matter-who-I'm-playing-against?

GdisagreesG

Yeah, I was wondering about this too. I've always told myself I'm either gonna get action here or I'm not, plus if I get only one street of action from TP then might as well get the maximum. Plus no one is really attempting to play back at people so it's not as if a weak lead is going to induce ******edness.

GIthinkmyflopsizingisamistakeG

Honestly this feels a bit more bad beat story than anything.

You've got a lock down read on this guy. And you've got a lock down opinion of what he thinks of you and your game.

So it leads to only one possible answer. Fold the turn.

Having said that, I range him differently and cram the turn probably.

Yeah, I understand why it feels like a bad beat story (partly why I posted here instead of a thread).

But I also feel this is slowly where my tables are moving too, where most of the times most of the money is just moved around in these "bad beats". As I say, before I could just shrug these off as bad beats / running into the top of his range / etc., and it mostly wouldn't make a dent in the overall results anyways because the tables were so good otherwise. Now I don't think I can be that lazy.

I thought I had to call the turn just in case he is slightly overvalueing 66/22/etc. on the turn, and then could maybe manage the hero fold on the river because at that point it is less likely he's going to continue for stacks with those hands against my continuing range.

Basically I'm fairly convinced I have to fold this hand (somewhere) and I needed a few "sigh fold" responses to help confirm (although I'm not quite seeing those so far).

GcluelesssighfoldingnoobG

give him half of the 45 combos = 8. give him all the sets = 12. maybe one combo of 77, a few T8 combos, add in one or two 67 combos and my raging hard-on would push my chips into the middle. if he has it, he has it. any consideration to folding this hand is ludicrous at 100 bigs.

wtf is "overvaluing" 66/22 in a limped pot?

Put yourself in the BB with 66/22.

You've seen the table nit lead into the field from EP in a 7way limped pot, with the first caller being the second table nit.

On the turn 4ways, I continued leading, with the other nit (whom I'm well aware is a nit and vice versa) continuing to call.

How you feeling about your 66/22 right now?

At least, that's how I'm looking at things.

GcluelessovervalueingnoobG

Pretty good as I know there are some overpairs you're not folding.

Is this guy really a level 2+ thinker?

Not only am I snap folding my failed limp/reraised overpairs here to a check/raise 4ways (heck, I'm probably snap folding to a turn donk from him 4ways into these opponents), I'm probably not even leading the turn with them 4ways with a nit and another solidish player in the hand; heck, I'm probably not even donking the flop (although he admittedly might know that).

I would never expect a nit-with-a-clue to pay off a check/raise here with a failed limp/reraised overpair.

Gcluelesslimp/reraisingnoobG

okay let's work this out:

if he's a dummy, he's not thinking about your range, he's playing solely off his absolute hand strength. "I HAZ SET I MOVE IN"

if he's as sharp as you say, he should know how to turn made hands into bluffs and run you off of an overpair.

add in a non-zero spazz factor = snap call.

GG, you & I play much differently. I'd still make a standard open pre & agree with IRTM on the rest. I think you're overthinking things as a whole. A guy with a demanding career outside of poker is probably not taking any time to really study the game. He's likely just played for fun for years and does have a good "feel" for the game but lacks all of the off table work you've done. You shouldn't be intimidated. I think if you're as nitty as V perceives you, that means that most of your post flop bets are with near-nuts + only. If that's the case, I don't think you could have gathered enough fat value to be winning over 3.5k hrs. Therefore, it's sorta ludicrous to think V can only put you on 99 OTT. Sucks that you got coolered, but it it's any consolation, I would have gone broke faster than you in this hand.

Wait GG wants to fold here? He is committed to the long troll for sure.

Just put all of your wagering chips in the middle then rack up and leave if you are going to fold this anywhere in the hand


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Doesn't make a difference that we're not HU?

Admittedly, the other guy in the hand is also a nit. But a lotta things gotta go right to turn a worse made hand into a bluff here, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG