1/3 500$ eff

Villain 500- late 40 white, casual gay businessman look. Seems to be only to adjust playing short handed, 5-6 players since I joined. Opened A4 utg. Folded and showed AK when he missed flop and I cbet HU. I can hear him and his neighbor discussing my hands quietly.

Hero cover- youngest at table and breathe takingly handsome. Been playing super aggressive short handed against a passive table. A lot of it was just strong hands like KQs on the button and 3 betting 5 handed. At first I was getting a lot of callers pre flop but they tightened up a bit after folding to multiple pot sized c bets. 6 handed, Straddled pot, two callers to me with AK raise to 26, 4 calls, flop Q high three checks to me I cbet 60 all fold. Next orbit same situation, straddle two calls and I raise to 36 with J6s, two calls. Flop comes A high no draws, checks to me and I bet 80, utg raises AI 120 I call 40 more and go runner runner. now they're all riled up. It might of been the first hand I tabled. But they don't adjust except villain, in fact they start calling my pre flop raises less. But villain is calling almost every pot I'm in, I assume light. I'm 3 betting him and cbetting a lot after seeing him open A4 utg

AKo bb, three limps my option, raise 16. Two calls, villain on button.

Flop Ad 10d 3h, H check, check, V bet 12, H r38, fold, V call

Turn 8h (A 10 3 ddh) H bet 80, V raise 200, H raise AI (H covers, V 250 behind)

I think many things about thus play but am weighted by results and ego.

^^^^

I would probably just bet/fold 3 streets. He thinks we're FOS so he'll call us down light. But he probably won't raise anywhere unless he has TP crushed (cuz why raise out our piece of crap, plus don't want to run into a monster as it's probably the only hand we'll call a raise with anyways).

So overall I think we got too fancy on the flop (including building too large a pot), plus should have insta folded the turn. He's not playing back at us with Ax (which he'll simply let us barrel off too); he's got a hand (just like anyone else who raises postflop at this level).

GimoG

Preflop : More. 20$+. You say he's calling frequently (and thus light), maximize that value.

Flop : Bet it yourself, 30$. Once you c/r, make it more (50$+). You're giving flush draws immediate odds. Not in love with c/r though, you're setting yourself up to play a huge pot over the next 2 streets with TPTK

Turn : The bet is good and well sized. The 3-bet is bad, you should be folding to his raise. This is a classic Baluga theorem spot, where a turn raise indicates that your TPTK is no good. He's not making a play on you, he's letting you know he's got your AK beat, so thank him and fold. He's going to call you light, he's not going to raise you light in a big pot like this. You even said he's calling you frequently.

I'm just a occasional rec player, but one thing I find to be pretty consistently true is what I believe they (2+2) call the Baluga Theorem. Basically at LLSNL one pair hands are behind when facing a raise on the turn.

So when villain raises the turn he's not doing it because he's playing at you. He's doing because he has a strong hand.

Howdy, thanks for the thoughts I appreciate it.

my thinking on the flop was that villain would bet more hands than he'd call with but thinking back now the board was pretty wet and a lot of the hands that he would bluff with have made a draw. Any who, he does bet, I'm almost positive it's gonna go HU so I'm not worried about isolating him and I was ok giving him immediate odds on a flush while keeping in gut shots and Ax type hands with the small c/r.

On the turn, the board now being double suited I didn't want to give immediate odds to a flush and I was ok taking it down. When he raised it was 200 total, 120 to me. by the way the pre flop and flop action came he had so little combinations of AA, 1010, 33, 88, A10, A3, A8 that I could put him on was draws. That second diamond now gave Axd+ a flopped top pair and a turned flush draw and QJd-KJd now had a gut shot and flush draw. anyways I thought that turn increased his range where he could raise. I thought he could make this raise with a big draw here cause he expects a lot of fold equity. I'm not good at math or numbers and while I was thinking about this I during my turn and still now, I don't know if there are more combos of draws or hands that beat me. And I think a pair is ahead of all the draws with one card to come.

So I weight him towards a lot of combo draws and I'm not gonna fold for 120 more. I don't want to call and fold on river with only 250 behind so I know if I call I'm not folding any river. So I thought I might have fold equity against hands that beat me like A10 and I'd get value from draws that miss river. So I shoved.

So that's what I was thinking and that it was an ok play. I'm not a winning player and I don't to justify bad plays with delusional thinking.

Edit to add that I really thought my line was so strong (raise bb, c/r flop, b/r ai turn) that a two pair bottom set might fold a %. Isn't that always nuts or semi bluff draw to the nuts, who would think I'm value betting a pair?

The theorem is to "reevaluate the strength of one pair hands"

In other words it doesn't mean you're behind, it means one pair is often a bluffcatcher. Because people are rarely c/r'ing a hand such as TPGK on the turn.

Giving llsnl villains credit all the time is a mistake. There's a lot of bluffing and most of it is pretty transparently bad.

I see. I probably the over simplified the concept then.

Still in general I think that being raised on the turn means a hand like TPTK isn't a strong as we thought on the flop and pre.

For most players, making the spot black and white has higher +EV. People simply don't have adequate info to actually evaluate, and by adding doubts in mind, it would have adverse psychological effects, not to mention those times that people actually call the raise.

Agreed. I think sometime we can get caught up in Information paralysis and end up doing nothing or the wrong thing if we over analyse

1/3 NL, 10 handed

Villain straddles. Middle aged white guy, I play with him a lot. He probably perceives me as a winning player and tightish, although definitely raisey / attack the straddle in LP. He can definitely get gambooley when short.

Fold to me in CO with mighty 86o. Tight players behind me, I raise to $25. Fold to him in the straddle, and he minraises to $50. He'll have $125 back if I call (a little over a PSB).

We're getting 3:1. He could think I'm FOS (which I am). He's obviously never folding. He could easily have big overcards in his hand (but also pairs). He'll probably cbet overcards 100% of the time and never fold on the flop with this much stack behind.

Is this a call due to immediate odds and fact he's probably never folding big overcards on the flop?

I call due to immediate odds.

Flop 633r. He donks $50 into $100, leaving $75 back.

I has two pears with SPR ~1ish.

I'm supposed to fold now?

Maybe the 3:1 immediate odds ain't great if they get me in spots like this?

GfeltlikeanidiotinthishandG

Not sure if serious...

8bb raise with absolute junk, then wondering if you should call for 6:1 implied odds...

Anyhow, not sure if I want to read your poker related posts...

Ya, kinda felt like an idiot on this one.

If you think your steal attempt is going to work enough times to make it with ATC, then cool. But you can't call the minraise, even though it's a minraise. He's not deep enough. Fold and cultivate your LAG image.

So I guess the bottom line is my RIO when flopping a pair and behind outweigh the IO when flopping a pair and ahead (keeping in mind he's never folding anything postflop)?

agreed

Any opinions on post 2655, in relation to post 2651? I'd appreciate it. Thanks

As requested.

Even though he once opened with A4, you haven't given any reason to suggest that he is the sort to raise with big draws. Instead of trying to 3bet you light, he seems to be calling and trying to hit a hand against you. Instead of thinking that he must have hit something, you seem to want to put him on a range that you can beat by including a lot of draws. Also, thinking that you can get top two or even bottom to set is, quite frankly, delusional, especially considering that the J6s hand should have them thinking you might be completely full of it.

I am bad at table selection. After a couple of players leave and some new guys sit down, the following three-hand sequence happens.

Hand 1: Blinds chop
Hand 2: Player open-limps on button. SB raises. All-in preflop AA vs KK.
Hand 3: UTG straddle takes it in a walk

How aggressive should I be in examining my options for a table change? I think I'd normally wait at least an hour before taking a look. I know that is too long and it might be the biggest leak in my game.

Weird things happen, doesn't necessarily mean table is bad. I look around the table and figure out where the money is going to come from, (how many bad players are seated). If it's a bunch of regs that aren't going to make too many mistakes, I look to move asap.

Id look to table change after 30 minutes or so if the table stays that way, should be about two orbits at that rate.

In the mean time Id make an immediate short term adjustment of raising almost atpc from LP, and a wider than normal range from EP. And literally 100% of unopened buttons for 2 - 2.5x and cBet (almost) all flops.

Pretty much what irtm said, if it's not a new table. I've seen tables, especially new, go from 0 to 60 in an orbit after an hour of zero action.

The most important factor in choosing a table for me is how much money is on it.

Firstly since deep-stack poker is more profitable than short-stack, but also because the only way to get more chips than the table max is to win a big pot. So if a few people are sitting deeper than the maximum, you know there are big pots being played. It's also likely that the people sitting on those stacks have played quite a while and are tired and tilting.

I know whenever I'm 200+ BBs over the cap I'm on tilt.

Haha

I'm serious though. Suppose a guy's up 400BB and then he loses 100BB. He's going to be tilted even though he's up huge. Because he could have just left and booked the win and now he has to grind it back.

Or he's just a bit dopey from playing too long and makes mistakes. That's tilt as well.

Plus lottsa times people sitting on big stacks are actually stuck.

Gbigstack,butup$2G