1/2 NL at an AC Casino

Hero has been at the table and built stack by playing ABC vs. pretty bad villains. $750. Other than the V that just got moved here, no one else at the table has more than $250 in front of them.

V gets moved to the table from another table. 20's white kid, dressed a little bit sloppy, probably at least buzzing if not drunk. Sits down w $600 since he came from another table.

This is literally first hand since V sat down.

Folds to V in MP and he raises to $17. Hero flats with 55 in late position. Blinds fold.

Flop ($37) - 567r.

V bets $100, (yes, $100). Hero?

I think we are ahead here.
Looks like a REALLY scared over pair.

Buuuuuut he did just 3x the pot.
I'm not folding, but I'm a station sometimes.

I'd just call.

The first thing I do when I see this raise is decide if I'm willing to lose 300BB with my bottom set vs. this guy. We know very little about him (good description, BTW, OP), except for one thing - the giant overbet. Are we willing to decide this guy is bad enough go lose 300BB with an overpair right now based on this bet alone? I can see the argument for "no", but I'm leaning more towards "yes".

Based on that, we could just call but we have to hope a 3,4,8, or 9 doesn't appear to put a 4-straight out there. Ditto with an Ace if he has KK/AA or a K if he has QQ+, etc. (and ofc the 2 outer that beats us).

I'm thinking a raise instead. How about a CIB to $200? Someone willing to make a 3x pot sized bet might also decide he has to protect his aces right now.

This hand actually happened about 7 years ago but I still remember it and still think about it from time to time but never bothered to ask what anyone else thought.

I think the flop actually had 2 of the same suit as well. For some reason, I felt really sure he had an overpair and thought V didn't like the coordinated board and just wanted to take the hand down on the flop. I didn't want a flush or straight card to come and allow him to fold his AA or KK so I just shoved. He tank called w 77. It was the first time I had ever ran into set vs. set live and I felt like I had the worst luck in the world because he was the only player at the table that could put a significant dent in my stack. To make things worse, V racked up immediately after and came back an hour later and sat down w $100. Grrrr.

Because I was asked...

1/3 NL, Friday afternoon

EP ($300) opens to $15, 3 callers to me on the Button with 44 ($350), I call, and Villain (covers) calls in SB.

Flop (6 players, $90): 974r

Checked to EP who cbets $40. I flat. Villain check/raises to $100. EP shoves $240 total. Hero?

Villain is a white middle aged reg and we've played lots of hours together and get along well. He is fairly tight ABC and most likely a winning player. He respects my game (often asking me how I woulda played a hand, I usually respond with polite BS). He has told me in the past how he knows he has a tight image and is trying to use that to his advantage, but I think that is perhaps some polite BS on his part as well. He's by-the-book, and ain't going to get too out-of-line.

EP obviously has an overpair as it's unlikely he's raising 99 preflop or cbetting air into eleventeen opponents. Villain knows this and is never expecting EP to fold to his small check/raise, especially in a pot this size.

Villain cannot have AA/KK because he would definitely raise with all this preflop action. He would also probably raise QQ here with all the dead money. It's slightly possible he has JJ/TT and is scared of being up against EP's overpair, but if so, he's never going nuts on the flop like this.

He's tight preflop, so 94/74 are absolutely out.

It's *possible* he *might* play T8s/97s/86s due to pretty much closing the action and seeing a big pot brewing.

He is not semi-bluffing T8s/86s due to not expecting to have FE against EP, plus he has to be wary of my flat. He's getting slightly over 4:1 odds closing the action, he'll simply call these hands and hope to hit.

So that leaves 97s/99/77. He's not 3betting 99/77 preflop for much the same reasons he might even flat with JJ/TT.

But with 97s, doesn't he just sometimes lead the flop? Probably the best hand, but somewhat vulnerable, sorta ok with taking down things right now or going against EP. And does he really check/raise "just" top two pair with my flat? For those into "tells", he didn't take that much time in sizing his small check/raise, and he also didn't look at me, almost as if "oh, huh? what, you're still in the hand, oh, jeez, didn't even really realize that".

GthinkingoffoldingasetG

hero folding sets on flop has to be in like 1% of times we flop sets.

i don't think this is one of them especially 116bb deep.

something I've been thinking of is how serious is the spite call live? when do you guys feel your aggression done pissed people off and they gonna spite call you so you have to tone down all bluffs and semi bluffs?

A long time ago, stampler once said (paraphrasing), "Every time I'm thinking of folding a small set on the flop, it's the wrong fold."

The physical tells you're talking about actually suggest to me that Villain does NOT have a set.

I would have raised the flop myself, but definitely would not have any chips left in front of me by the time the turn was dealt.

Of course every Villain is different, but in my own experience I would expect to be good here a lot.

First thing first.

1. V is aware of his own image.

2. V is a winning player.

3. Board is dry, leaving very little room for draws.

4. $100 is a big bet in 1/3 game.

Given all of above, V probably believes that his CR carries decent amount of FE. And perhaps he may be doing it subconsciously, there is enormous value to turn his thin value hand into a bluff given the pot size and size of his CR.

Why isn't FE expected against EP? EP made a weakish bet of $40 into pot of $90, not even 1/2 PSB bet.

Why can't he have JJ/TT? How is CR'ing $100 to a weakish $40 bet with $170 in the pot "going nuts?"

And if you indeed believe that CR $100 a strong move, then it actually strengthens V's belief that he has tons of FE against EP.

In other words, you think if V's holding top 2 or better, he would lead instead of CR $100 and going nuts?

Basically you're saying that you have no flatting range less than set on a dry board, and that you think people should recognize that?

Are people really that bad in your pool? If so, how do you rationalize that they're these super players capable of all these things?

Any disagreements with my overall thoughts, or do you simply think that I have to include 97s in his range which thus makes it a call?

Note that one of my problems I've always had is projecting my way of playing poker on to other "good" players. For example, I would never play JJ/TT this way, but *maybe* he does to "see where he's at"? But I just. don't. think so.

GherofoldingsetsinSPR3potsG

@ RP:

I don't what to say, I don't think Villain expects to have any FE against EP, especially since his check/raise is almost a minraise. EP is playing his hand face up and Villain simply wants to take his stack. And while I think it's definitely possible Villain could think he could have FE against nitty me in a HU pot, this ain't a HU pot.

I think check/raising JJ/TT here would be going nuts, don't you? He flatted JJ/TT because he was worried he was up against a better hand, and now EP has continued cbetting into the world, plus nitty me has called. We think check/raising JJ/TT is for value here against both opponents? The only thing I could really get behind here is that it's a raise to "see where I'm at", but I just don't think he's doing that (I think he has all the info he needs by this point). But again, I could be projecting.

I'll admit that there might not be much difference how he plays top two versus a set regarding donking or going for a check/raise. I do think however that he is a cautious aware player overall, and that my flop flat should be setting of alarm bells for him, so I'm not convinced he thinks top two is the nuts here.

I dunno. Maybe it was a "you had to be there moment". Or maybe he turns over 97s enough for this fold to be horrible.

GonlypostedthishandherecuzIdidn'twanttoclogupthech atthreadwithitG

GG I think your ranging is a bit nitty and I wonder if you occasionally project your own nittiness on other players? However, I agree that his range is pretty narrowed to 97, 77 and 99 though I would include 86, T8, TT and JJ because this is LOL live poker...plus a spazz factor should be present.

FTR I don't mind the flop flat as much as others on this board. SB is the only player left to act behind us so we don't mind dragging him along for one bet. EP looks relatively face up and this is a super dry board. Players may or may not be aware f GG's image so a raise from him could be problematic re: getting value. I doubt it but it's possible.

I agree with RP that you may be overestimating these players abilities and applying logic to their plays that likely isn't present. I also agree that our hand can certainly look like TT/JJ if the villain is capable of such thoughts.

I think people are right in that I certainly do give far too much credit for opponents capabilities at times, especially early on when I haven't played a lot of hours with them.

But I also think it's possible that we as a whole sometimes don't give our opponents their due as much as we should. Villain is not a world beater, but as far as our local player pool goes, I'm fairly convinced he's an ABC winning player, and is definitely not clueless. He sees me as a tight winning player, and I just flatted the flop cbet from an EP raise into the world on a totally dry board. A lot of players aren't aware that just happened; he is not one of them.

Gjustcuzwererecreationalplayersdoesn'tmeanwe'reret ardedG

Missed this, wasn't sure if RP was getting at that. Yes, it's totally possible that Hero could have JJ/TT here (although, honestly, I would have folded, but he's not 100% sure of that), and thus he figures 97s is the nuts against both of us.

I am pretty much saying that V's CR to $100 range is wider than 97/99/77.

He can certainly have 99/77, but that's result oriented to me.

Against me HU, definitely. With obvious EP in the hand, I disagree.

FWIW, if he does have 97s in his range, then I'm pretty sure my fold is horrible.

Gputtingpeopleonanexacthandjustliketheydoitinthemo viesG

I am simply interpreting what you have written down and they don't justify a fold to me.

Fair enough. I mean, the SPR is like 3 and I'm folding a set on a non straight/flush board. Ha, I wish someone else woulda posted this hand and I could see my response to it, because it does sound flat out horrible to me.

GprobablybeingresultsorientedG

Ive seen people (reg players) getting it in in spots with hands that are relatively very weak and they are obviously behind for a lot more money (both actual money and bbs) so i dunno. With not even a straight possible on the board you would have to have a very strong read to fold there.

I think you have to include some A9 and TT (maybe not JJ). Remember, you and Villain don't know EP has an overpair until he shoves. It's possible that Villain's raise is to make EP fold overcards because he thinks TT (or whatever) is good against you.

I have folded sets before--I even folded a set to a single flop bet once--but this is not a spot where I'd ever do it.

FWIW, when EP cbets the flop into the world, I'm 99% convinced he has an overpair and would fold JJ/TT. I don't think Villain is *too* far off that line of thinking if he had JJ/TT himself, although I could *perhaps* seeing him making a call and seeing what happens on the turn. It's also possible he might donk JJ/TT and go from there.

Gbutagain,perhapsI'mguiltyofprojectingmyubernittys tyleontoVillainG

You're working with few underlying assumptions.

1. EP doesn't cbet if there are > x number of callers.
2. V is aware that EP is betting into > x number of callers and has a small range.

Two assumptions above is already painting an unrealistic picture.

3. V would fold TPTK or JJ/TT instead of calling or CR'ing small to "see where he's at."

Why, so he can see where he's at?

Perhaps in V's mind, he's thinking if EP bets > x amount, EP must have big PP and if EP bets < x amount, he might just be cbetting.

So his response was to raise to see where he's at, the same rationale as if he donk bets.

@ RP

Are 1 and 2 really unreasonable assumptions? I don't think they are...

I'll admit that there are lots of ways Villain might play JJ/TT. I think check/raising them is at the bottom of his list, but I guess I could be wrong.

GcluelesssetfoldingnoobG

I think they're huge assumptions in a pool where you are getting away with folding set in such spot.

The fact that you think V can only put you on a set in this spot makes me wonder if anyone in your pool is capable of winning.

If the table was simply made of up players like me and him, yeah, no one but the house wins. Thankfully, there are still plenty of poor players to take advantage of (such as EP, for example).

Gshipped401bbsonSaturday,veryfewofthatagainstplaye rslikehimG