Quote:
Originally Posted by IRAZERIVER
J9s otb 250bb deep vs fish. Not the worst player, but def very bad and overplaying (imo) several hands.
What size raise are you willing to flat. 5x? 7.5x? 10x?
I think I'd go up to 5x against "very bad but not the worst." Depends on type a little. If I am looking to get stacks in vs. a maniac, this is not such a great hand. If I will be able to take it away a lot, it is a better hand.
Button's great, but remember there are 2 left to act. They will occasionally make you fold. It's rare at LS, but if one does happen to be active and/or sharp enough to realize you are capped and wants to isolate the fish/take it down, you have to tighten up.
This is a perfect example of a spot where we are inclined to overestimate our advantage. So, even as a very good postflop player compared to the LSNL pool, I'm worried about doing that.
My gut reaction is to side with GG and ship, since we are usually going to get stacked if we are behind anyway and we should often be ahead.
But, if we take the reluctance at face value, KQ seems reduced. I think the average player is pretty happy with a Q high flop and a mid 20s Asian male even more so. At the same time, if he called a PFR with J9, this is a no brainer call otf for him. But, soul read on one word in a post on a forum: calling a PFR and then going from reluctant otf to wanting stacks in on this turn sounds a lot like AJ.
We're just 43% vs J9s, AJ and KQ.
KT makes SOME sense. 66 too. So maybe we can get to 50/50.
Therefore, I think calling works out. If the board pairs, we ship the river. If it doesn't we generally check call, but maybe pull a hero fold out of our butts once in a while.
If he DOES have the straight, I think it's a pretty good outcome to almost always stack him when the board pairs and to get away on A and J rivers.
Should we ship spades? Don't really expect him to fold a straight but he might. He might also check back KQ,KT,66 but call a bet. We do screw ourselves if he would check back a straight but now calls.