Quote:
Originally Posted by water69
In games 2/5 or lower I’m starting to feel like once a villain calls a large bet OTT, they’re calling the river a large % of the time, unless the board drastically changes. I think once fish have put a signif amount of $ in the middle, they don’t want to fold so they’re looking for any reason to call. My thinking is that in good barrel spots I should just go for the kill ott and MOST OF THE TIME give up otr if it doesn’t work.
On the flip side, let’s say I have AQ on AJXXX, I’m not typically going for fat value OTR, I’ll usually bet small to induce calls from weaker Aces. But if the above is correct I’m probably missing a lot of value.
I’m interested in everyone else’s experience/thoughts.
This is a very interesting topic and something I'm trying to understand better myself in order to make my bluffs more successful and also find those spots I can squeeze out very thin value. I'll share my thoughts and pardon the lack of organization.
First...I seem to get looked up ridiculously often by like 2nd pair or an underpair or TPNK. OTOH when I bet/bet/bet AK on AXX I don't seem to be as good as often as I should be if fish are really calling with like 2nd pair. This seems to be contradictory at first glance. BUT...
I think the primary difference is one of dynamic vs. static boards. When we flop TPTK the board is typically static or semi-static. E.g., AK on A84r. If we're ahead OTF we're probably still ahead OTR. But if we get called twice it's not looking good because there are so few draws. Villains may get to the river with AX but if they call a river shove we're often beat by Aces up or a set. And they're unlikely to call down with e.g., TT here even if they get a relatively clean runout like A8439tt because they got a bad flop. They likely peel once and give up. They get less emotionally invested when their hand appears to be a loser early on.
But now suppose we raise in HJ with K
Q
and villain calls OTB with T
T
on 7
6
2
Now villain flopped well and is happy, but being typically passive our villain just flat calls our C-bet. The turn board is 7
6
2
A
and we fire a second barrel. In this spot villain typically sighs, asks how much it is, then calls after 10 or 15 seconds, which makes me think I can bluff a lot of rivers. The river board is 7
6
2
A
5
and villain looks unhappy so we figure along with the reaction to the Ace he is capped at an underpair, and we fire a third barrel. He tanks and tanks and says "if you have it you have it" and calls. We lose. Villain got emotionally invested OTF and didn't want to let it go.
In a lot of ways this board is much worse for villain with TT than the previous one. But he flopped well and put in a lot of money with what he thought was the best hand so he decides to stand his ground. On the static board where we're betting for value he flops poorly and gives up by the turn. On the dynamic board, it's typically going to take all three barrels to get him to fold an underpair or possibly even 7x, and in my experience the third barrel needs to be pretty damn large against typical low stakes sticky villains, like around a PSB. And he'll still call sometimes.
One thing I'm experimenting with is trying to get more value on dynamic boards when I think villain is weak but sticky. For instance if I had KK in the previous hand, against some villains I can bet all three streets for value amazingly enough. Or especially if I had AA and the board was 7
6
2
K
5
I can usually get three full streets from a hand like 88 to QQ despite the nasty runout because fish just don't like to fold overpairs to the flop and my image is fairly aggressive. If the board were 7
6
2
5
K
they are pretty much never folding an overpair once calling the turn bet, despite the nasty river card. They are too emotionally (and financially) invested at that point.
Another important aspect of dynamic boards is figuring out if villain is on a draw or has a made hand. Sometimes I get a live read and am very confident villain is drawing, sometimes I have no read but I know how villain plays and how many made hands he has vs. draws, etc. If we suspect villain has a draw, we can barrel dynamic boards with small river bets and if our draw bricks but villain might have a better draw, e.g., we have 7
6
vs. A
4
on T
9
5
J
Q
we both bricked and here the board is so scary there's no need to shove. A 1/4 PSB or even smaller is enough to get villain off his busted draws while a PSB might not be enough to get him to fold T
9
even though it's basically a bluff catcher, so on this board if we bluff we should go small to target the busted draws.
So my point is...it's important to figure out three things when implementing barreling strategies, particularly whether to fire the third barrel
A) Is the board static or dynamic? If it's static, a double barrel will usually be sufficient to get villain to fold his weaker hands. A third barrel is not going to work too often because once villain calls OTT we can be pretty sure he likes his hand. If it's dynamic, it's more often going to take a triple barrel if villain doesn't fold OTF because villain either has a made hand he liked a lot OTF or has a draw he won't fold until the river. On dynamic boards, we should usually not bluff the turn unless we think we can bluff a decent number of rivers also (or we have massive equity like an OESFD).
B) How emotionally invested is villain in the hand? With premium preflop hands that make overpairs OTF it's going to be hard to get a fold even on runouts very bad for villain, and we should frequently give up once the turn barrel is called if we think villain is too emotionally invested to read the board and realize his hand is a bluff catcher.
C) If it's a "wet" board, is villain drawing or do we think he has a made hand? Solid made hands OTF are going to take a larger river bet to get them to fold, and they still may not fold even on bad runouts. My general experience with villains and underpairs leads me to believe they'll fold often enough if the turn and river are both overcards, particularly if some draws come in as well, but probably not if just one overcard falls. When we think villain might fold a made hand, we want to size on the large side. When we think villain has a lot of busted draws, a very small 1/4 PSB is usually sufficient.