20 is standard at this table, it's techincally 1/3 but stacks/pots play like 2/5 - 5/10. Most people buy-in for 1K+.

Surprised people saying folding flop here is standard. Maybe I've been watching too much 5/10, 10/20 cash game streams where people float with much less equity than this hand.

Those floats are probably not OOP when the PFR just bombed pot into a 4way field

This. Your actual hand is good, but everything else about the spot is problematic. Your opponent is likely to be less aggressive than the ones on streams as well.

It's thin, but it's generally a call here imo (as I've already stated). We're getting the necessary (barely) implied odds for the gutshot, we could pick up a flush draw, we could get a free river, we could hit top pair and win that way. One of the reasons you're getting different opinions is due to the briefness of your post. When we don't have much info, people will fill that info in differently due to the profiles they imagine, their experience, etc. Where are the other players and what are their stacks? How likely is a Villain turn barrell and what will the sizing likely be?

But if we think he’s bluffing then we won’t make anything apart from what’s in the pot if we hit top pair

And then outside of hitting the gutshot or runner runner flush, there’s a huge risk of RIO if we hit top pair

This is an easy fold

I don’t know why you are assuming he’s going to shut down if we hit top pair. Q and J aren’t bad cards for villain to barrel and I would guess hit his range better than BB’s flop calling range.

2/5 @ casino

LP UTG limps
Hero mawg isos to 25 with AJcc (1k)
MP young wg backpacker with giant headphones call (~ 1k)
LJ mawg sunglasses calls (700)
HJ young bg calls (600)
SB 30s Asian guy raises to 105 (1k)
Folds to hero

Hero tank calls because sizing is weird with V being OOP and I figure I might get cascade calls

All call

Flop ($525 - 5 ways): Qc7c3c

Sb checks

We flop the nuts in a ridiculously bloated pot. Who's doing what?

I'm checking because it seems unlikely we're getting called by anything except a queen, set or smaller flush, all of which are going to bet anyway if we check. There being no upside to betting, I'll check and allow people to catch up a bit.

What do you think his range is for potting flop?

It’s overpairs and missed overcards. We basically have the nit low overcards with bad kickers. How many Queens or Jacks on the turn can we feel comfortable give us the best hand?

Bet $250

I didn’t say that we should call, although I think calling is reasonable. You said that if he’s bluffing and we hit a pair we aren’t going to get any more money out of him. I don’t think that that is the case.

spot last night..

V playing pretty tight, rest of players calling a lot

V raises from EP to 15 , I call with JJ, three more callers

Flop(5 players,70) T 6 3

V bets 60 - is this an easy call?

Definitely not. It's a pretty clear fold. V isn't going to lead 60 into 70 against 4 opponents without a hand. There are no draws. A tight V probably does not have AT for an EP raise. But even if we give him all combos of AT, you have only 34.6% equity against { TT+, AT }, which would be a thin call heads up, but here you have to worry about one of the three guys behind you having flopped a set.

What are stacks?

V was like 300

other players were like in 200-300 range, I covered all

Call flop, fold alot of turns. 77-99 & a small # of AJ+ are not impossible for villain here. It might be multiway, but board is dry, & people have no idea how to construct logical cbetting ranges. JJ has too much value to flat it pre & simply fold it on a fairly favorable flop.

If everyone is calling pre I would 3 bet pre to 45/50 ish.

I already think a "pretty tight" villain is extremely unlikely to cbet the flop with those hands, but the sizing makes it even more unlikely. The sizing is deliberate from villain, the natural thing to do for a normal cbet where he's hoping for a fold would be to toss out 50. I also think "not impossible that maybe villain could have these hands" is a pretty lax standard for a call with three players behind you and intending to fold the turn anytime he doesn't have those hands. Lastly, the fact that JJ is a good hand has no bearing at all on whether this spot specifically is profitable.

This is an odd standard imo, JJ plays great in a 5 way raised pot. Maybe that's not your ideal spot with JJ, but it's nowhere near bad enough that it's worth changing strategies simply to avoid it. I think whether threebetting JJ is profitable against this villain is a lot more salient.

and yet here we are with an overpair and you think it's an easy fold to 1 bet

Meh, 3! An EP tight player with JJ isn't going to be profitable ITLR. They're gonna fold everything we're ahead of and call/raise when we're behind. Only real hand we probably get them to fold some % of the time that has a lot of equity vs us is AQ.

I'm not saying we should fold to the cbet because a lot of Vs just "know" they should cbet as the PFR, so I'd be basing my action on some reads

Sometimes you just have to take what the defense gives you...


I think you're misconstruing the word "great" with "easily". JJ does not play, by any meaning of the word, great 5 ways. Any flop with a A-Q on it is a guess if we want to call and basically a check fold if someone breathes on the pot is going to be the likely outcome. Even if it checks through, because of the nature of llsnl players, that doesn't guarantee that no one has a pair to the overcard.

How would threebetting pre help this situation? "See where you're at"?

Like the reason I think this is an easy fold is that after he raises in EP then bets nearly pot into 4 opponents, I'm ranging him really heavy for big pairs. The hand has played out great for us, we got a shot at flopping a set 5 ways and can now get away from it in a spot where the PFR is showing a lot of strength. If he checked, we could obviously bet and probably be in good shape. Win money, not pots.

What I'm saying is that the set-mining value of the hand multiway more or less entirely compensates for the fact that we're going to have a little more difficulty realizing our equity on other flops. This is the case with all big pairs. For instance, a 7-way raised pot is a completely fine spot to have with AA. People just emotionally don't like losing with big pairs, so they are averse to any situation which decreases the % they win the pot, even if the EV is the same or better.

Like:

The fact that I think this is an easy fold and the fact that I'm fine with taking JJ 5 ways are closely linked. If you're never willing to lay down overpairs when it looks like they're beaten, then taking 5 way flops actually is going to be a disaster for you.

I'll start by posting that V playing 'Pretty Tight' does not imo mean he's QQ+ AKss +, if it does, then description has to be V is a nit who plays his UTG range face up. I'm ranging him as mid pairs +, big Aces, some other suited aces and then a selection of suited broadways.

3 betting pre is to get value out of hands that will call the 3 bet that we are ahead of from his raise ...other pairs, suited Aces, other hands that may call the 3.

if he's tight and 4 balls us, we can comfortably fold

3 betting may also deny the equity of hands he folds that we are close to chopping with...maybe KQ etc but it also denies the equity of people calling behind us with Q9ss or Q10o or whatever.

otherwise, if we flat and we're fairly sure that the rest of the table is gonna call to see a flop and then we're folding when JJ is an overpair, we're really just flatting JJ to set mine and I think we need to get more value from the hand than just that.

I'm not generally folding JJ as an overpair, obviously. I'm doing it in this instance because the PFR led 60 into 70 5 ways.

What you think that bet means is really the crux of the hand in more ways than one. If you range him at like 77+, AT, AQ+ or something for that cbet then it's going to be a fistpump call. But also, if you range him like that, then flatting JJ pre gets less good, because I'm operating under the assumption that I'll be able to make accurate folds postflop. (Though I still think flatting JJ is fine even if he is aggro post).

Worth noting also that when OP says villain is "pretty tight", I am assuming not standard TAG, which is what you're ranging him as there. I'm assuming either nitty, or tight passive, i.e. would limp a lot of the hands you're giving him. But those assumptions are much less important than what you think the cbet means.

Nope. It’s debatably a profitable call. Is he opening JT-ATs? I think there is a clear difference between if he opens UTG or like UTG+2/LJ. Does he always size to $15 pre or does he size based on his hand strength?