Does previous 15 minutes affect this decision?
1/3 NL, 10 handed
Hero (covers) has just tabled changed to the lone other 1/3 table. I don't do anything in my first 15 minutes of note. I've got a big stack and when questioned about it stated that I've been at the table for about 10 hours. White early 40's male with beard, maybe look nittyiesh, I don't know.
Villain ($320) is 50s asian male. I don't believe we've ever played together. He doesn't seem to be doing any stupid, but two hands may have him rattled in the 15 minutes I've been at the table. Hand 1, he gets AKs and gets in $150+ preflop against an opponent with JJ + lottsa dead money (standard, imo), flops a K, turns the nut flush draw, and then sees opponent bink the one outer on the river. Hand 2, he gets QQ and gets in $150+ preflop against another opponent with JJ + dead money (again, standard, imo), only for the opponent to bink the 2 outer on the river. So he's lost half his stack recently with style on the river. He strikes me as having played this game before (probably a reg at another casino?).
Girl ($600) is only important in the hand in the fact that she's still in it and has to be part of the villain's thought process.
Preflop (10 players): Hero is SB with 9
9
Villain (UTG) raises to $6, Girl calls, Hero calls, BB folds
[WTF. $6 is a minraise and typically table would go off eleventeen ways, not sure how we got 3handed. Not sure if this is a juicer or a small raise with a monster trying to induce a 3bet. Yes, I could have 3bet, but I'm 200bbs deep OOP against girl who seems a little fishy and I'm fine setmining against her (as well as villain) for mucho $$$ (it would be a shame to take this down preflop, imo).]
Flop (3 players, ~$18): 9
8
5
Hero donks $20, Villain calls $20, Girl calls $20
[Pretty standard, imo.]
Turn (3 players, ~$78): 6
Hero checks, Villain bets $200 into $80 (leaving about $100 behind), Girl folds, Hero...
WTF?
Do previous 15 minutes factor in at all here?
Is he tilt bluffing? Tilt committing with a weak hand like an overpair? Tilt protecting a worse hand? Tilt protecting a better hand? Or even tilting at all?
He's still got the girl to react behind him when he commits, and there's an obvious 4-to-a-straight on board (albeit it would have had to be a gutshot that hit), but flop donker did just show weakness. But would a turned gutshot try to scare away opponents with this huge overbet?
$26 invested, meh, fold?
I's got top set, meh, shove (since a call would be fairly pointless)?