Hi Guys,

I was hoping you could help me mull over a hand, I think I have the numbers right, but would love any feedback, and elaboration on the range analysis.

Villain was a middle-aged man, worked in finance and seemed like a relatively solid player. I had been playing with him for about three hours and hadn't seen him 3-bet.

I'm sitting on about £300, and he's got about the same as me.

I make it £8 in mid position with KQo. Villain calls in position, the table folds around. The flop comes 64K rainbow. I c-bet for about £14, Villain calls. The turn is an Ace. I check with the intention of check-calling as I find it hard to put an Ace in Villain's range here (unless he has A6 suited), Villain checks behind. At this point I am putting Villain predominantly on KQ, KJ, KT, K9 & K8s. River is a 9. There are no flushes and obviously no straights on board. I value bet £20 into the pot of £47, Villain raises to £75.

Now I have to call £55 to win £142. That means I think I have to be ahead 38.7% of the time to make this call. Let's look at Villain's range:

Unlikely Hands

KQ/KJ/KT/K8: Not likely to raise river as I'm folding out all better hands.
AK: Most probably 3-betting pf, also unlikely to check back turn.
A6: Despite it being a dry board, I feel A6 bets the turn here.
44/66: I feel these are also betting the turn.

Likely Hands

K9: This seems like the most likely contended in my opinion.
99: This is also a possibility based on the way the hand played out, though fewer variations.
77/88: I don't doubt VIllain would be capable of calling my c-bet with these hands, then turning them into a bluff in after I show weakness in the face of the Ace on the turn.

So, based on the range of hands cited in the 'Likely Hands' section, I'm winning 57.2 of the time. Yet, I didn't call. There were two additional factor's in this decision:

1: When I asked Villain if he would show if I folded, he told me that I had to pay to see his cards.
2: He playfully threatened to call the clock when I was thinking on the river (maybe after 40 seconds). He had seen me value bet a river HU when checked to (essentially VPiP) after a player earlier in the game called the clock on me.

I folded, he mucked.

What do you guys think about the hand?
Would you call solely based on the numbers?
Are the numbers correct?

ranges need to be wider to figure the "math", middle aged people from the uk dont turn hands into bluffs often enough to make this a call. Would probably bet turn for value as they dont bluff enough and you can probably extract from any pair.

Thanks for the feedback. I would have hated being raised on the turn then playing the river oop though.

i cbet turn, and check river, maybe c/C