5/5 Hawaiian Gardens 12:00am Saturday night

Villian (735) - Mid 20's Asian Male; only played a few orbits with him but he seems kinda spazzy/aggro and makes alot of auto pot size bets. No history with Hero.

Hero (BTN) is Dealt AK

UTG calls 5, UTG+1 calls 5, UTG+1 calls 5, 1 fold, HJ calls 5, 1 fold, Hero raises to 35, 4 folds, HJ calls 30

Flop (105): QQ9
HJ checks, Hero?

I mean either option is fine but betting is standard

Check looks mandatory against this sort of opponent. Put it this way: what are you hoping for when you bet? If he folds, you were winning. If he calls, are you happy? Not really, right? If he raises, it's horrible.

In some situations with drawing hands, we bet the flop even when we're not hoping for a +EV outcome on that street, because the bet is part of a multi-street strategy. That is, sometimes we bet AKhh on the flop and we don't expect them to fold anything that beats us immediately, but we hope they will fold stuff that beats us to a triple barrel. But this is not a good board for that sort of plan, because our opponent can have a lot of hands that they will not fold to any action, and the range of hands that multiple barrels represent is also thinner than it would be on a board like Q97, say.

Check.

Given the V descript and the check back flop decision. What do the flop checkers do if V fires $100 on a blank turn?

I’d lean toward betting flop based on value equity, besides fold equity on multiple streets. There are probably few Q in his limp/calling range. Hands like medium/small pps and JT will likely call the flop.

OTT is where the double barrel pays off as he very likely folds hands like 77- and maybe even JTo which has about the same equity as Hero.

I would bet. We are favorite against pocket pairs below the 9 as well as JT. I'd rather fold out villain's equity.

I would bet about 60.

On the other hand if villain is aggro we don't want to get check raised here so I could see a check back being good as well.

Is it?

I check by default and like a check more vs. this villain. Peeling a turn bet at least.

Getting check/raised is terrible with so much equity, we do very well against his x/f range, so there's not a ton of gain when he folds. We can call a turn bet unimproved.

Hero (BTN) is Dealt AK

UTG calls 5, UTG+1 calls 5, UTG+1 calls 5, 1 fold, HJ calls 5, 1 fold, Hero raises to 35, 4 folds, HJ calls 30

Flop (105): QQ9
HJ checks, Hero checks

Turn (105): 2
HJ bets 100, Hero ?

Very clear call, probably calling river too vs this guy.

Betting merely to fold out equity is virtually always a mistake when heads up. The only exceptions are when the pot is very large compared to stacks.

Without seeing some showdowns I would be careful calling this guy spazzy. So we are checking back the flop to induce bets with worse ott and otr? I would just bet 1/3-1/2 pot otf. Most v's wont raise here even if they have spaz in their wheelhouse without the goods. Plus its such a weird spot for an over limp range. Definitely betting the flop. Most of the time v will fold or call and we will realize our equity.

this.

also, given how light this V is betting, river might be a shove bluff over his river bet.

Hero (BTN) is Dealt AK

UTG calls 5, UTG+1 calls 5, UTG+1 calls 5, 1 fold, HJ calls 5, 1 fold, Hero raises to 35, 4 folds, HJ calls 30

Flop (105): QQ9
HJ checks, Hero checks

Turn (105): 2
HJ bets 100, Hero calls 100

River (305): T
HJ checks, Hero?

V has 600 left. How much do we bet and are we bet/calling?

$240 and don't fold

$190 / call.

190/call here too.

I bet 200 and he snapcalled.

jam river

Really think hero should be betting flop, there are too many hands that give up for us to really like giving a free card, I also don't expect villain to xr much

His x/f range has very little equity against us, but may attempt a bluff on the turn which we can call. Bluffing weaker hands is better, such as weaker flush draws which can't call a turn bet or a hand like KT, or naked AK.

Consider it a value check. We likely have the best hand but it's hard to get a bunch of value by betting. Give an aggressive villain some rope to hang himself with when we have a hand which is not very vulnerable and not so strong that checking is missing tons of value.

Edit: Just realized I already said this upthread, oops.

How is our hand not vulnerable? ATC has meaningful equity against us and hands like 77 that will fold are ahead

Call.

I don't think 77 is ahead. Can't use an equity calculator to get the exact equities right now though, but I'd guess that 77 is almost a 40/60 dog.

I doubt 77 is folding to a flop bet. IMO, a delayed cbet when overcards come will often have much higher FE vs underpairs.

Yeah we're a favorite against 77, I meant ahead in absolute hand strength at the moment. Apologies for being unclear.

You described villain as aggro, not stupid. Is he really bad enough to call with 77 on this flop?