I played a hand today where I had no clue what the correct decision was on the river. Literally 50/50 between calling and folding. Maybe you guys can shed some light on this decision.

1/2 NL - Horseshoe Hammond

Hero: (~$500) Been playing a standard TAG game. Nothing really to note.

Villain: (~$600) Wednesday night, middle aged rec. player. He is having some cocktails, straddling and having a good time. He's in a very good mood, we are talking and laughing and making fun of each other(in a good way.) The alcohol and fun atmosphere of the table is definitely loosening him up, but it's pretty obvious to tell that he's a competent player and plays quite a bit. Definitely capable of thinking above level 1.

Preflop: 2 limps, Hero raises to $12 with AQ on the BTN, Villain calls from BB, and one of the limpers calls.

I should note that Villain looked like he knew he should fold and I think he was about to, but decided to call. So we can eliminate all semi-premium hands and pairs from his range. He probably has a hand resembling something like K8s...

Flop: ($35) KQ5 Villain leads out for $20, limper folds hero calls.

You can argue folding here, but I think I am ahead of his range here and we have played several pots together and are starting to develop a dynamic. I never think he has a K here, he would be more inclined to check/call a value hand like top pair, and I think it's more likely that he is betting a hand like JT, Qx or even air.

Turn: ($73) A Villain bets $50, Hero calls.

River: ($173) 2 Villain checks, Hero bets $75, Villain SNAP goes All-In.

Ok, this is not a situation you run into everyday. Once he checks the river, he must think that I am most likely going to check back since I have been in check/call mode throughout the hand. So that means he can never have a hand better than AQ. But I did just get check/raised on the river, and villain is a rec. player and rec. players have a tendency to play their nutty hands weirdly...

Reason(s) to call:
-His line doesn't make sense, and he would never check a value hand on the river.

Reason(s) to fold:
-Check/Raise All-In on the river is ALWAYS the nuts.
-He probably has JTo like 95% of the time here.

Thoughts?

Until I've seen differently, I assume a river check-raise or re-raise is never a bluff. So, my question here is whether there's a value hand that we beat. KQo is a possibility, but think that hand is just calling a river bet. I'd let this go. If we'd seen him check-raise the river before, and especially if he'd ever shown down a bluff in that kind of situation, I'd be more inclined to look him up here, but I let most people bluff me once in this situation just to show they're capable of it.

Preflop : Well played
Flop: Easy fold
Turn: Raise for value
River: Bet/Fold

an important question to ask is what is villains reasoning for checking the nuts otr?

I just can't see villain bluffing in this spot. Your hand is pretty face up as AK/AQ, and I don't see him trying to bluff you off it. JTo makes too much sense.

Well played, now fold.

Bet
Bet
Check-Raise (on non-scare card)

I'm confused. We have to be correct like 37+ % of the time to make this call. Even though it doesn't make sense, I think I'm folding here.

55%? How did we get less than even odds on a call?! Must be worst rake ever.

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Sorry 37% percent of time. Lol. Are we right 2 out of 5 times here? I don't know, but I don't think so. CRAI on River at low levels (except when flush draw misses) seems to be the nuts a lot more often than 63%.

River check/shove at 1/2 is almost always the nuts. I'd probably raise turn with plans to check back most rivers since they aren't calling a big river bet very often with one pair on this kind of board. As played fold river, as much as it sucks. You can't beat any of the value hands that he would shove river with, and he's not doing that with KQ.

Nice first post. This is indeed a gross spot, but I think your instincts are mostly pointing you in the right direction, fold.

I'd also like to point out two interpretations you've made which could be seen differently:
1. V looked like he wanted to fold but called anyway. Is it possible he could have just been considering whether to raise? Worth at least considering.
2. (this is the more important) V would never take a bet/bet/check-raise line with a value hand. I have to differ here, there is plenty of reasons why V might do this with a very strong hand on this board. Primarily because he should feel pretty sure that you likely have a pretty strong (top pair/two pair) value hand here, that likely might not be able to pass up getting more value on a checked brick river card, but might find a fold to a strong triple bet line.

I am totally fine with how you played the whole hand. You could have raised flop or turn, but I have no issue with just calling it down either. But when he check-raises all in, I'm going to feel gross but let him have it, unless I really have some more info on the player.

The only hands that really make sense for him with this line are AK,AQ,KQ,JT,55 with the KQ & AQ probably pretty well discounted after the check-raise river. I think the times a standard player would make this move with anything less are tiny, and there are a lot more JT combos here than anything else.

The hand is ok up until the river. If he is playing a wide range/ semi-unpredictable like you said then you have virtually no value in any sort of value bet on the river. You should check your showdown value and not base your entire hand off of his pre-flop physical actions IMO.

Well played, except otr i would probably bet way bigger then 75. Its possible your small bet has induced. Im betting at least $100 otr, and puke folding if he jams

I also like just calling turn, when he donks flop and continues on turn, hes either bluffing or he has a really strong hand, we could raise for value, but what if he decides to go crazy with a worse two pair, and ship over the top? Wed be in a tough spot because he could easily have the nuts too. So i like flatting turn to keep his bluffs in and protect ourselves from a dumb spot.

That's horrible advice. Most of the money to be made at this level is made by value betting your opponents for multiple streets. Opponents at this level frequently call down light. Sure, you will value-own yourself from time to time but far more often you will take your opponents to value town in spots that they would not take you. The river is the street where you can extract the most value given the size of the pot. Missing out on a $100 value bet in a spot like this is a major mistake.

Certainly bet the river, but im likely folding to the AI. Im not happy about it though, obv

Welcome on board. Excellent first thread, it is well appreciated. I hope you post more often here.

If the villain is above a level 1 thinker (that's big assumption much of the time), I don't think he calls with JT pf oop. He certainly doesn't lead with it on the flop. The flop hits a lot of your range. He's got a nice draw, you don't expect him to bet the flop anyway. If a blank comes on the turn, he can they bet out, representing a king and deciding not to way any longer.

The flop is where you fold. You have second pair, you've been donked into and there's little chance of improving on the turn (5 outs). Even those outs aren't clean if he has a set. I'd want some evidence that he likes donking bets on the flop to call.

As for the river, I'm curious about what he was betting with. For me, that information is worth more than a small river bet, which is unlikely to be called by worse. I don't think this is 50/50 after the shove. KQ would raise you pf and AJ or worse are not shoving on the river. If I had to guess, I'd say it was 55.

Fold, his value range destroys you, your hand is now a bluff catcher. The dynamic between you is important there has got to be better spots than this.

Given your reads I think the hand was played pretty well. Could raise flop for value if you don't think he leads with Kx. Probably don't get much more out of Qx the rest of the hand unless the case Q peels off.

On the river I think the bet is too big against his range according to your reads because he either has 3rd pair or the nuts. Either check/back or bet something silly small like $35.

As played it's a fold but the fact that he's been drinking kinda makes me want to call.

I'm starting to think that maybe I should just fold on the flop.

Gross spot especially because you are so deep but I lean towards a sigh call. Why would he bet flop, bet turn, and THEN check/raise river. If he was on a draw that got there he would continue the aggression. It's also a weird line for sets to make, he would be bet/calling, bet/folding, or bet/raising depending on how good he is. It's such a weird line that seems like two pair and he thought you were just trying to steal the pot when he checks. That check on the river just makes no sense to me. I guess if he's not as good as you say he is, he got there on the turn and is making a weird line trying to figure how to get the most chips in the middle but I think it's still a sigh call and if you lose it's more of a cooler than a bad call.

Wow. The V believes he can totally outplay you post-flop.
He just straight away showed you his bluff too, man.

I still stand by the fold without more info on how V plays,
I would say the majority of the time that kind of line taken on that board
with a standard player you are beaten.

My last session I actually took nearly the exact same line against my opponent as V took against you here, except that I had straight draw which turned the nut straight: I bet flop half pot, bet turn half pot, checked river, he value bet, I re-raise shoved, and he called. My point is don't totally discount this type of line, it may occasionally be taken with a strong hand.

Lol at villain thinking he can get 2p to fold there.

OP's fold is the like 1 in 100 player capable of folding here.

Sorry OP, live and learn.

Nice first post.

You made the right fold on the river, but yes you should have folded the flop. You have a hand with very few possibilities. There is a chance that you are ahead on the flop but most of the time in this spot you are just getting taken to value-town by a better hand.