I played a hand today where I had no clue what the correct decision was on the river. Literally 50/50 between calling and folding. Maybe you guys can shed some light on this decision.
1/2 NL - Horseshoe Hammond
Hero: (~$500) Been playing a standard TAG game. Nothing really to note.
Villain: (~$600) Wednesday night, middle aged rec. player. He is having some cocktails, straddling and having a good time. He's in a very good mood, we are talking and laughing and making fun of each other(in a good way.) The alcohol and fun atmosphere of the table is definitely loosening him up, but it's pretty obvious to tell that he's a competent player and plays quite a bit. Definitely capable of thinking above level 1.
Preflop: 2 limps, Hero raises to $12 with A
Q
on the BTN, Villain calls from BB, and one of the limpers calls.
I should note that Villain looked like he knew he should fold and I think he was about to, but decided to call. So we can eliminate all semi-premium hands and pairs from his range. He probably has a hand resembling something like K8s...
Flop: ($35) K
Q
5
Villain leads out for $20, limper folds hero calls.
You can argue folding here, but I think I am ahead of his range here and we have played several pots together and are starting to develop a dynamic. I never think he has a K here, he would be more inclined to check/call a value hand like top pair, and I think it's more likely that he is betting a hand like JT, Qx or even air.
Turn: ($73) A
Villain bets $50, Hero calls.
River: ($173) 2
Villain checks, Hero bets $75, Villain SNAP goes All-In.
Ok, this is not a situation you run into everyday. Once he checks the river, he must think that I am most likely going to check back since I have been in check/call mode throughout the hand. So that means he can never have a hand better than AQ. But I did just get check/raised on the river, and villain is a rec. player and rec. players have a tendency to play their nutty hands weirdly...
Reason(s) to call:
-His line doesn't make sense, and he would never check a value hand on the river.
Reason(s) to fold:
-Check/Raise All-In on the river is ALWAYS the nuts.
-He probably has JTo like 95% of the time here.
Thoughts?