Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-13-2019, 12:24 PM   #1
adummmmm
centurion
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Vancouver, canada
Posts: 129
Need help river sizing

$1-3 game ,

Hero : ($800) 34 grinder, been playing quite lag , going for pots etc , testing villans etccc

Villian : ($1400) middle aged chinese guy won a $1400 pot all in preflop 3 way when he rivered a full house, he had 1010 , generally ABC ,

Otth : villian makes it $20 from the co , one player calls , hero calls with 53 in the SB ,

Flop ($60): 558
X,x, V bets $40 , middle player folds , hero raises $140, villian calls

Turn ($340) 7
hero leads $165 , villian calls

River ($670) 7
hero ? What sizing are we going for , obvs targeting his overpairs ? In a nutshell with this board should we be going for smaller bets ie 1/3 psb or larger ?
adummmmm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 12:39 PM   #2
tmo1120
adept
 
tmo1120's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Southwest, FL
Posts: 910
Re: Need help river sizing

folding this suited gapper in the SB pre-flop seems completely reasonable

AP... bet bigger on the turn.. set up river shove

you have less than psb OTR just rip it in vs this player type
tmo1120 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 05:41 PM   #3
twitcherroo
old hand
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 1,208
Re: Need help river sizing

2/3 PSB usually works for me which is exactly a shove, so shove.
twitcherroo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 05:49 PM   #4
Javanewt
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: a farm in the country
Posts: 8,368
Re: Need help river sizing

Fold pre. Not sure why you called, but it worked out.

Shove river w/ your stack. It's really the only play.
Javanewt is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 06:18 PM   #5
statmanhal
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,387
Re: Need help river sizing

I did some research on bet sizing with the absolute nuts, which I think applies here. A key factor is villain’s folding tendencies. For a fairly tight villain, using an S-shaped fold equity function, I found that EV is maximized with a bet at about 0.8 x Pot. For a looser villain (exponential fe function) the EV maximum occurs for a bet in the range of 1.25 to 1.5 x Pot.

Of course, these results depend on the specific fold equity function. The point I’m making is that one can gain insight into the best bet size mathematically and then maybe revise the result to account for factors not explicitly considered. A future post in the following poker math blog site will provide details on the method used.

https://holdemmathology.tumblr.com/
statmanhal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 07:06 PM   #6
jshah
centurion
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 127
Re: Need help river sizing

I think if you shove here, V will fold. You are showing so much strength by raising and barreling all streets. If V is abc, he probably figures his 1p is no good.

I would bet half pot here in the hopes V finds a call or thinks you are bluffing.
jshah is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 08:28 PM   #7
browni3141
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 3,128
Re: Need help river sizing

Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal View Post
I did some research on bet sizing with the absolute nuts, which I think applies here. A key factor is villainís folding tendencies. For a fairly tight villain, using an S-shaped fold equity function, I found that EV is maximized with a bet at about 0.8 x Pot. For a looser villain (exponential fe function) the EV maximum occurs for a bet in the range of 1.25 to 1.5 x Pot.

Of course, these results depend on the specific fold equity function. The point Iím making is that one can gain insight into the best bet size mathematically and then maybe revise the result to account for factors not explicitly considered. A future post in the following poker math blog site will provide details on the method used.

https://holdemmathology.tumblr.com/
Are those realistic models of player tendencies? Your site is very nice and this is a good idea, but I wonder if these specific models are reasonable. The best bluff sizing for both models is allin, I believe, but we donít just go overbet jamming airballs all the time.

I think MDF should be considered as well. Optimal bet sizing against an MDF opponent has an elegant formula.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 08:44 PM   #8
wait
banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 1,116
Re: Need help river sizing

Stick it in his eye. More turn
wait is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:11 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online