$1-3 game ,

Hero : ($800) 34 grinder, been playing quite lag , going for pots etc , testing villans etccc

Villian : ($1400) middle aged chinese guy won a $1400 pot all in preflop 3 way when he rivered a full house, he had 1010 , generally ABC ,

Otth : villian makes it $20 from the co , one player calls , hero calls with 53 in the SB ,

Flop ($60): 558
X,x, V bets $40 , middle player folds , hero raises $140, villian calls

Turn ($340) 7
hero leads $165 , villian calls

River ($670) 7
hero ? What sizing are we going for , obvs targeting his overpairs ? In a nutshell with this board should we be going for smaller bets ie 1/3 psb or larger ?

folding this suited gapper in the SB pre-flop seems completely reasonable

AP... bet bigger on the turn.. set up river shove

you have less than psb OTR just rip it in vs this player type

2/3 PSB usually works for me which is exactly a shove, so shove.

Fold pre. Not sure why you called, but it worked out.

Shove river w/ your stack. It's really the only play.

I did some research on bet sizing with the absolute nuts, which I think applies here. A key factor is villain’s folding tendencies. For a fairly tight villain, using an S-shaped fold equity function, I found that EV is maximized with a bet at about 0.8 x Pot. For a looser villain (exponential fe function) the EV maximum occurs for a bet in the range of 1.25 to 1.5 x Pot.

Of course, these results depend on the specific fold equity function. The point I’m making is that one can gain insight into the best bet size mathematically and then maybe revise the result to account for factors not explicitly considered. A future post in the following poker math blog site will provide details on the method used.

https://holdemmathology.tumblr.com/

I think if you shove here, V will fold. You are showing so much strength by raising and barreling all streets. If V is abc, he probably figures his 1p is no good.

I would bet half pot here in the hopes V finds a call or thinks you are bluffing.

Are those realistic models of player tendencies? Your site is very nice and this is a good idea, but I wonder if these specific models are reasonable. The best bluff sizing for both models is allin, I believe, but we don’t just go overbet jamming airballs all the time.

I think MDF should be considered as well. Optimal bet sizing against an MDF opponent has an elegant formula.

Stick it in his eye. More turn