Quote:
Originally Posted by mtagliaf
Let's do some math to examine the turn call. I am not trying to berate, but calling flop with a gutshot and too little behind is a losing play in the long run, and I want to point that out.
Let's simplify the situation to say that you will call the 15eu flop bet, and when you hit your 4, you will get your stack in the middle every time and win. (This is overly simple, but bear with me). When you don't hit your 4, you will fold to the turn bet.
You hit your gutshot on the turn roughly 8% of the time. When you hit, you double up and win 120eu on the hand. Net profit is (120 * 0.08) = 9.6eur.
The other 92% of the time, you lose 15eur. (.92 * -15) = -13.8eur.
If we make this play over many hands, we stand to lose -4.2eur per hand. (-13.8 + 9.6)
One of the major problems is our short stack. If you change the 120 starting stack to 200, you actually end up making 2.2eur per hand. Note that this is still unrealistic - we don't always get villain's stack when we hit (he may have nothing, or may be good enough to fold one pair hands), but it gets us a bit closer.
This is the best, most useful post in this thread. OP, use this as gospel. Don't get defensive, it was an awfully played hand all around (although I have made similar poor plays, calling pre and calling flop bets with gutter draws shortstacked).
However, I have never made this fold, so you have that going for you....
