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Old 12-01-2017, 11:56 AM   #1
Proper Villain
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Was my flop call really stupid?

1/3 NLH at MGM National Harbor
$300 effective stacks
Button seems to be a solid ABC player. Hasn't really gotten out of line, has a reasonably wide preflop raising range. Has showed down strong hands and has some discipline, he folded when I 3-bet his $15 raise to $45 and also when I popped his straddle to $30 in the last hour.

I'm in SB with Ac Jc and call the button's raise to $15, along with 2 limpers. 4-handed to the flop and $63 in the pot.

Flop 9c Qd 2h

Checked around to button who bets $25. I didn't really catch a piece of this and first instinct is to fold. BUT...this is a good board for button to c-bet. Can't really narrow his range too much or gauge his strength, plus this bet seems on the small side, especially being 4-handed. My thinking is with $260 effective if I call, I can afford to see the turn with the intention of check-folding if it bricks. There are a lot of turn cards that give me multiple draws and an ace might win me the pot as well. I call, as does one of the original limp-callers, making the pot $138.

Question 1: Is my rationale ok here or is this way too loose?

Turn is the 10c. Checked to the button, who fires in $125.

I think implied odds go out the window here for the most part. If I hit my draw I don't think he calls. He clearly has a hand here and does not want to see the river. I look at the original limper, who looks like he's going to insta-muck as soon as I decide what to do.

With his turn bet I'm getting 2.08-1 odds. I think I have 18 outs (flush/str8 cards plus 3 Aces), so that's 1.55-1 odds. If the Aces are no good then I have 15 outs or 2.07-1, still making for an even-money call.

Thinking about what he could have, I think we can remove 2 pair given the flop texture. Maybe a set of 9s or AQ, but with his turn be I'm thinking there's a good chance he's holding KK.

Question 2: With all these outs I'm not folding to the turn bet. Do I have any fold equity here, and does it make sense to shove over his bet to double up if my draws come in?
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Old 12-01-2017, 12:54 PM   #2
gobbledygeek
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Re: Was my flop call really stupid?

Preflop there are probably some pretty good arguments for all 3 plays. It's a Button raise by a guy with a wide range, so some argument for a 3bet. Our suited hand plays ok multiway so flatting and inviting the limpers in for a multiway pot ain't bad. But in the end we'll also be in terrible position (both relatively and absolutely) with a good player on the Button, so folding isn't bad either. The more of a superstar you are, the more you can continue; the less of a superstar you are (especially compared to those you are up against) the more folding is fine.

I consider anyone cbetting air 4ways either the most aggressive player in the game or the biggest fish. Is the Button either of those? I don't get that vibe. Plus either of the limpers could have easily hit a hand (Q itself hits a huge amount of hands that limp/call preflop, let alone other hands). Trivial fold for me on the flop. If this is our postflop thinking, then preflop is also a super trivial fold, imo.

On the turn, if Button is an ok player then he's pretty much indicating he has a monster hand, perhaps even TT from his betsizing. He's up against 2 opponents so it's unlikely he's barrelling air plus unlikely he's overvalueing something like AA with this huge bet.

We're getting about 2:1 to call, with the slight possibility the other guy might also call and pad our outs (although we can't count on that). We have 15 outs, although two of those might be dirty if he has a hand like TT, so 13 outs gets us in the neighbourhood of about 3:1. Our gutshot could look like two pair, and our flush draw is a backdoor draw, so those might get paid off; we'd have to make up about one bet on the river to breakeven, and we have just over that left ($135 into $388 HU, which will be hard for any good made hand to fold to). Kinda doubt we have any FE facing a bet this size into two opponents; facing a weak bet we might have.

Overall it's very thin, especially when you take into account the times (a) the other guy surprises us by check/raising the turn, (b) the Button surprises us by making an incredible river fold and (c) the times we end up hitting our hand against a full house and pay off.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 12-01-2017, 01:01 PM   #3
caddymatty
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Re: Was my flop call really stupid?

I think given the situation you were thinking way beyond what your opponents thought process would be. In most 1-2 / 1-3 games it’s gonna be a very simplistic mindset for the abc players. Typically in these spots when that type of player bets the button they are not going to be doing it as a bluff but more like a pot builder/value range. They want to keep people in with less lee holding and not scare them away. I tend to think he is in the range you mentioned which is overpairs, sets, and AQ. I would definitely fold and find better spots against this opponent.

As played on the turn if you have no intention of folding anyway( which I think is reasonable) then why wouldn’t you just fire out. Your hand looks a lot stronger betting out into two people plus gives you the opportunity to set the price. This will also allow you an additional opportunity outright even though I think his fold equity is on the lower side.
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Old 12-01-2017, 01:07 PM   #4
gobbledygeek
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Re: Was my flop call really stupid?

I'd also be fine with the idea above regarding donking the turn, especially for like a 1/2 PSB which pretty much gives us the immediate odds we need plus has some FE.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 12-01-2017, 01:56 PM   #5
Rhombo
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Re: Was my flop call really stupid?

Easy 3bet pre if this flop isn't an easy fold. AP jam I guess. The only combo that makes sense for V is KJ, which you block. Every other made hand should not be potting when the T comes, though it doesn't mean he isn't doing it anyway with QT.

Leading turn idea is a bit results oriented. I would expect excellent odds to c/c 90% of the time.
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Old 12-01-2017, 01:58 PM   #6
gobbledygeek
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Re: Was my flop call really stupid?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhombo View Post
Every other made hand should not be potting when the T comes, though it doesn't mean he isn't doing it anyway with QT.
Sizing thru out looks very consistent with TT, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 12-01-2017, 02:11 PM   #7
Proper Villain
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Re: Was my flop call really stupid?

Great responses, thanks very much. I like the idea of donking the turn.

Preflop, I did think about a 3bet but I had popped this guy a couple times before and if he took a stand I'd have to fold or play a pretty large pot out of position.

On the flop, I wasn't fearing a x/r from limpers as they had been pretty passive. Definitely thought about folding, but I've been trying to loosen up a bit over this year (I was on the tighter side of TAG for a long time) and this seemed like an ok if thin spot to call a bet. If x/r did come it's a clear fold.
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Old 12-01-2017, 02:17 PM   #8
Rhombo
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Re: Was my flop call really stupid?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Sizing thru out looks very consistent with TT, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
I think V has every 2p+ combo in his range, I just don't think he is playing them well. Punishing here with the big combo draw probably isn't worse than calling even though it's really hard not to get called light in low stakes.
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Old 12-01-2017, 03:48 PM   #9
Viral25
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Re: Was my flop call really stupid?

If we are continueing on flop, x/r >x/c imo. We can have sets and Q9, we can fold out his bluffs/weak value, and we can barrel on a lot of turns: every club, A, T, K and 8.
However I prefer to make this play with a hand that has direct outs, like KJcc.

The turn becomes really awkward because of his sizing. Jamming is probably breakeven or at best marginally +EV. If we had more fold equity i'd definitely prefer this option. However with current stacks it's kinda hard to do anything other than call and hope you bink.
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Old 12-01-2017, 10:45 PM   #10
The Rumor
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Re: Was my flop call really stupid?

Why you want to call out of position with air postflopversus a good player who cbet into a 4 way pot is beyond me.
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Old 12-01-2017, 10:50 PM   #11
javi
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Re: Was my flop call really stupid?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Proper Villain View Post
Preflop, I did think about a 3bet but I had popped this guy a couple times before and if he took a stand I'd have to fold or play a pretty large pot out of position.
This is what you want though. You want him fed up with being 3bet. In fact the first couple of times should probably be a bluff, because thats when you get the most credit. It's that 3rd and 4th time where you finally pick up a real hand but now you have an image and your opponent is tilted.
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