I normally advocate not 3 barreling at llsnl unless you are locked in with some great reads but I felt like this was a good spot. My math and theory game isn't strong enough for me to articulate a good defense to my play but it seemed good to me.

Hero just table changed and has 500 young white guy
villain has 350, recreational MAWG

Hero raises otb to 20 with Ah2d, villain calls in the sb, everyone else folds. flop is 964dds,villain checks, hero bets 25, villain thinks a bit and calls. Turn is Qs, villain checks hero bets 55, villain calls, river Ks villain checks, hero bets 110.

thoughts?

Looks good in theory but the only hands you are targeting are A7 and better. Admittedly it should be hard for him to call with anything he called the flop with aside from some QX and KX so I say it's a nice cheap attempt at a bluff that only needs villain to fold ~1/3 of the time. If that's how you read the hand then kudos on giving it a shot.

I think you forgot to mention that all of the 77/88 6x type hands should fold alot OTT, and all of the 9x non 2pairs should fold OTR.

you are readless, so stick with your default play.
If you bluff with this exact hand on this runout as default, you are making a mistake.

If you have never done a reasonable play before at the table (3 barreling), you aren't really in a position to be an advocate for or against it.

3 barrel bluffs work in lots of spots, particularly on draw heavy flops with dry run outs.

I didn't read the post after reading the title and first sentence.

Kinda like 'I've never ridden the train and am not an advocate of riding the train - except rarely'....or 'I've never eaten avocados but know I don't like them'....just silly thinking imo

Looks good to me


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I'm going to vote against triple-barrel here, absent more information. Here's why:

1. Hero's hand actually has a decent amount of showdown value. Since we have the Ace of diamonds, V is almost never going to turn up a worse ace high if we check back the river, and all straight draws that called on the flop missed (75, 87, etc.).

2. Its important to note that this bet has to get V to fold 30% of the hands V would otherwise win with if hero checks. This is super important, because a big part of V's range can be diamond draws, and since we block the Ad, V can have Kd or Qd a decent amount of the time. I don't expect V to ever fold Qd or Kd to our bet. I expect V to fold a pair of 4s, pair of 6s, sometimes with a pair of 9s, and pocket pair 22-88. I expect V to call with any 2 pair hand or better.

3. One of the most important pieces of information we can have here is how V has reacted to other turn bets / double barrels. Do we think V would have called the turn with a pair of 6s or pair of 4s (or like 22, 55, 77, etc.). If V folds second or third pair to a double barrel some percentage of the time, then we can weight V more heavily towards draws. Again, vs. the draws available on this flop, hero is winning with a check or losing because V isn't folding. Its not like a 7 came in on the river, and V could have a pair of sevens which we're targeting folding out. If V can have a pair of 4s/6s/9s >30% of the time and we think he folds them when we bet 110, then I think bet is the correct play.

To be clear, this board/run out is pretty good for a triple barrel in general (low cards on flop, draw heavy, running scare cards). If hero had 75 or 87 or didn't have the ace of diamonds, I'd be 100% advocating for a triple barrel. But since we have ace high we don't need to bluff out the missed draws from V's range, and I'm not sure V is ever folding enough of his hands that are currently winning that we need to bet and can do it profitably.

Hero has Ah. End


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LOL TRUE - then I advocate for the triple barrel once we bet the turn. We probably should just give up on the turn though haha.

OP, I think this is fine as played given you didn't have Ad, as that can give V a lot more showdown hands which we lose to if we check (namely, Ad7d - AdJd).
Would still suggest overall thinking about these types of spots in terms (1) hero's showdown value (2) V's tendencies/play against double barrels with middle/weak pair type hands and act accordingly. Sorry for the misread but hopefully the general thought process helps a bit.

Check flop

Vs a thinking villain this is probably spew. You don't have blockers to anything, the main flush draw missed, and I'm just not too sure of what you're trying to rep for value. KQ that hit runner runner 2p? TJ? And if you do hit those hands, are you really sizing 110 into 200 otr? I mean here the villains line does look quite weak with x/c flop and turn, so sure your bet can fold out his busted draws so there's some merit to that. But if I was in this spot vs you with 9x, which will be a good portion of my showdown value range if I check call twice, I would probably call river given the price you're laying me on top of the fact youre repping a very thin range for value.

You can barrel off here but not with this hand. Draws, particularly straight draws are going to be your best options. You're doing it way too often if you pick a hand like this with minimal equity. Flop is a check. Give up turn unimproved vs turn lead

Sounds about right. I didn't really decide to barrel off here for any reason besides I felt like it. Posted moreso for the shame to prevent me doing it again in the future.

Hero can have a lot of value combos here. All sets KK QQ 99 66 44， two pair KQ, K9，Q9, maybe 69, straight TJ, against some V who capped their range at one pair here, hero can value bet AA, AK, KJ, KT as well


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Waste of money and this kind of play will put you in the hole for good.

Semibluff may work if you have a draw to the nuts with 2 over but your naked bluff is a novice mongrel-slut concept.

Sure I can agree with the assessment of the value range you are assigning hero. We also have a couple other things to take into account though.

Regarding sets, sure it is possible for hero to have some sets here. However sets are 15 combos total here. Also look at hero's sizing at all streets. He bet 25 in to 45 otf and 55 into 95 ott. This sizing doesn't scream set to me on such a draw heavy board.

Let's look at 2pair. I don't know how hero plays, so I don't know if he opens 69 off suit or Q9 off suit. And even if we decide to give hero these combinations, we have to look at the sizing on the flop and turn again. Is hero betting a mere 60 percent pot on both streets with these hands? The only 2p hand with makes sense with this sizing is K9 and KQ, both which get there on the river which are range targeting capped 1p type hands. So I agree K9 and KQ are possible, but I doubt hero shows up here with Q9 or 69 for value.

Let's take a look at the straight TJ. Again I think a straight could make sense here but I wonder about sizing again. By default I use larger sizings on semibluffs assuming deeper stacks on draw heavy boards where I have less fold equity early on in the hand but pick up more fold equity later in the hand. I also don't know if hero plays TJo. Some do, some don't. But let's assume hero has at least SOME TJ here.

As for the last portion of the range you assigned. First off I think again, AA sizes bigger on such a drawy board. Why are we barrelling AK on this board? Flop seems like a check back with AK. If we do decide to 3barrel here for whatever reason, I guess a value bet does makes sense vs the capped range. KJ and KT make much more sense to barrel here, and I agree a value bet makes sense on the river. But again I would have expected larger sizings from these semibluffs ott.

Key thing here after all this analysis is sizing. It doesn't just take away from hero's story, discounting many combos from his value range, the price he is laying villain on the river on a call is insane. It's 110 to win 315 if I'm not mistaken. That means villain doesn't have to be correct that often at all to make this call. We also haven't talked about any of hero's bluffs here. Hero can have any busted flush or straight draw here. Not only that, but since villain is so often capped at 1pair here, he can often eliminate even more value combos hero can have because he likely holds blockers. Added to the fact that if hero is capable of turning something like small pairs into a bluff, this is an easy call for any thinking villain. Feel free to talk about these points.

TLDR: Hero's sizing on the flop and turn takes many of his value combos away. The sizing on the river also yields less folds vs a thinking villain.

It is better to have a larger sizing. But note that V is a recreational MAWG who was not even playing full buyin. These type of player can be either stationary or money scared. But both types are playing their hand. They might not even track the size of pot. It is hard for them to hero call with 3rd pair or worse



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