Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkesDave
After you flat the flop raise with AJs and don't hit a backdoor flush card you're either way ahead or way behind. You have a textbook medium strength check back hand. What possible reason do you have to bet here? Please explain. You think you're ahead and you're going to get value after you cold-called a raise-reraise from exactly what hands that hero has here? If hero doesn't have at least AJ here he's folding his entire range except for QTcc to any bet you make. Betting that turn with AJdd is a terrible play. You shouldn't be betting to deny clubs equity here either because they're so unlikely. Your goal should be to get to showdown as cheaply as possible unless a safe card lands on the river and it checks through again. Then you bet small for thin value.
Again, I wouldnt be in this spot with AJ but if I was I agree its WA/WB and I would be fairly confidant that Im way ahead. I can count the number of players on 1 hand who would raise a flop donk bet and then check the turn with an overpair. It just about never happens.
Its pretty obvious that the donk better has a J. AJ will be way ahead of the donk better almost every time.
Hero's line with QQ doesnt make much sense and I almost never see it (which is why its so great) except that he didnt follow thru and crai on the turn. I understand your points, but we have different styles and Im sticking with my advice to crai or fold the turn depending on my read at the time.