2/5 and V is a loose Asian guy. Buys in for the min ($200) and plays too many hands. I doubled him up when his 92s flopped a pair and a flush draw. I had opened to $25.

Super passive table and it takes a decent raise to get any limpers to fold. V limps UTG and 4 other callers to me. I raise in the BB to $40 with 1010.He shoves $250.

It’s possible he limp/rr with a big hand but the table just hasn’t been active enough for that to make sense. So my read is a big A.

Do you call? And, in general, if you are 90% sure it’s a ‘flip’ do you always go with it? Or why is your threshold for picking a better spot?

Marsh

If I'm sure it's a coin flip I call every time I'm getting 51% odds or better. As played it sounds like a snap. Could easily be better than a flip.

snippity snapple

I guess that question might belong in the small stakes live poker forum?

Two things:
a) you need to call only $210 to win a pot of $500 + dead money, so you less than 42% equity to call off
b) pocket pair against suited AK is 54-46, not that far away from a coin flip. But against unsuited overs, TT has 57% equity. That means your EV in the $500 pot is $285 while a true coin flip would be $250. Those $35 difference make for dinner at the casino.

Combine those two and you have a pretty easy call. (And yes, even if he also does that with JJ+, you still have a call)

Sorry! Yeah meant to post in the strat forum. Feel free to move it.

Answering the title rather than this particular circumstance of hand ranges and dead money, and therefore taking out the added elements of dead money and hand ranges...... my willingness to flip depends on the quality of the player I am flipping with. If I feel he is a better player than me, I am happy to flip. But if I feel I am a better than the villain, then I won’t. My view is why give a worse player a 50/50 chance of beating me when I think I feel I can get the money in in better spots? But if it is a player that is outplaying me then perhaps a 50/50 is a good option for me.

If I am in Vegas to have a good time, then I will probably limit the flip to a single digit in front of the comma. $25 at a $2/5 table isn't much more than a pot sweetener in many of the LV games I have been in...and just as you get people at lower stakes that will see any two cards for $10-15, so to are such people at $2/5. This holds just as true in LV as it does in live environments in other parts of the States...

And to the specific question, with a pocket pair pre-flop and for only $250, there is no way I am laying it down when I was already into the pot for $40.

He called a $25 raise with 92. I think that pretty much answers your question. Snap call.

It's either +EV and you call or it's not and you fold. Never "wait for a better spot" in a cash game. If you're under-rolled and scared of variance go to work until you have a bankroll.

BTW, the scenario you're describing is not a flip. If a bet this profitable were offered repeatedly people would literally be flying across the world to get their money in.

There’s more than just EV to poker, and generally other things as well. Imo and generally for most normal people, utility >>> EV. That’s why things like insurance exists.

Suppose we ignore all metagame purposes and what not, and that we get 3-barreled shoved otr for 500bb. We know we are right 50/50 and that our call is +EV by 0.3bb. You really “shouldn’t” be calling here and most people wouldnt. the utility you get from being right doesnt justify the utility you lose by being wrong. And actually for most people the discrepancy would be very high. I mean yeah if you’re risk loving or whatever and you think being right gives you a lot of utility, by all means call

If you’re absolutely sure you’re flipping it’s a snap with the dead money

But you would never be sure of that; regardless, i still think it’s a call

For all practical intents and purposes of the person asking and every other person I’ve seen asking this question what I said is true. If this were posted in a more math focused forum like poker theory or if a more experienced player asked the question I’d go into more detail talking about utility like you are. Modeling utility is complex and beyond the scope of this sub-forum, IMO.

A more honest but lazy answer to OPs question is that the amount you should be willing to “flip” for is a lot more than what you and most other people think if you think TT vs overcards with dead money qualifies as a flip.

Agree this is a snap because it's not really a flip.

However, we should definitely avoid true flips, where it is 50/50. Many poker players incorrectly believe that we want to get in any amount with the smallest edges. This is wrong, not just because of utility and the psychological impact, but because it elevates your risk of ruin by a lot. You def. do not want to stick in 5% of your BR with a .1% advantage.

But it's not like we can really determine our edge with such precision.

I appreciate the responses. Perhaps it’s a dumb question because math always wins. This was more the tension between ‘lol, gambooler’ and limp/rr is always KK+ (IME). I’ve punted my fair share of money when I ‘know’ someone has me beat. One instance in particular was being deep with KK and someone limp/rr with AA and I just couldn’t get away.

Perhaps this was my own borderline GTO situation where the money wasn’t very much but I still thought I was beat in general.

Carry on.

This is true and also rake is a thing which reduces a very small +EV edge to a small dog.

The other major factor here is the $70 pot out there before he shoves his $250.
So actually, without doing any math, you should still be calling even if you think you’re a slight underdog (which is difficult to be the case with 10’s, but you all get the point I’m sure). I should also point out that I dislike using this kind of math logic to justify calls for for large sums of money. But for another couple hundred here, meh. Pretty easy call with this type of V I think.
A hand like A-Js or A-Qo would be a closer decision imo.

Edit: actually KQs would be the tipping point difficult decision here for me I think.

Snap call

I agree with snap call, and will throw in that I think nearly half his range is underpairs. I am guessing 44, 55, or 66.

Assuming OP has a standard quadratic utility function, I recommend a rapid call.

Agree with everyone else. If you have a notable EV edge, you take it, and you have one here. Calling a PP vs. overs a flip is an oversimplification of what actually goes on in these spots. Whose the final aggressor, the ranges, and the pot odds are all key factors that novices often ignore.

As for true flips, where we are facing a large bet and the math says the EV is near 0, then there's arguments both ways. Like others said, taking huge money flips increases our risk of ruin, which is bad. But on the flip (pun intended) side, we portray a more gambly image by showing we aren't scared money and are willing to take big risks. I find this type of image easier to capitalize on then the nit one I sometimes get. As long as I'm comfortable losing the pot on a flip, which is almost always unless I'm shot taking a bigger game Mike McDermott style, I'll err on the side of gambling.

If i am the one pushing I'll take a 40% chance to win + fold equity all day every day for any amount. If I am calling I'd want a lot closer to 50%.