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Most optimal flop play in this spot? Most optimal flop play in this spot?

10-12-2015 , 01:35 PM
3/5 NL full ring
Villain is a rich rec, he likes to play when he "feels it coming". Running very well today!

Villain is on the button. 5 limps to hero in the BB and I make it $45 to go with AKo. Everyone folds but villain.

Flop $115: KQJhh
Hero bets $75. Villain thinks for a little bit then raises to $175.

I have ~$750 behind and I am covered. I also have the Ah. Bet call? Or is this a spot to check call? Or bet fold?
Most optimal flop play in this spot? Quote
10-12-2015 , 02:59 PM
Either shove now or call and shove the turn. You have some fold equity against 2P or a set and decent equity even if called by a straight or flush (well, except Th9h of course). If you call, your implied odds for hitting the set or flush are poor.

You might be ahead and fold out a worse hand, but that's hardly a disaster here.

There's also a chance V will put on you a big combo draw or naked bluff and call off light.
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10-12-2015 , 03:46 PM
either fold now or call and fold the turn
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10-12-2015 , 03:47 PM
without better reads, i'm very reluctant to get it in with just TPTK and backdoor hearts. SPR is 7:1, i don't think we're gonna be ahead often enough if $1500 goes in on this flop

how has V acted previously post-flop? passive with draws, or aggressive? has he ever shown down total air? what have his holdings been like when he's been betting?
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10-12-2015 , 03:49 PM
V has gotta include JJ-KK in our range, too, right? as PFR from the BB, this board smacks our range, so i don't think he's folding at this point...
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10-12-2015 , 03:58 PM
I think Im folding. Like amh said, does V, raise draws? or flat draws?

I dont think V is folding either. He has at least 2 pair or a pair plus draw.

Would he raise with any hands were ahead of? Probably not. I'm folding
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10-12-2015 , 04:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Case2
Either shove now or call and shove the turn. You have some fold equity against 2P or a set and decent equity even if called by a straight or flush (well, except Th9h of course). If you call, your implied odds for hitting the set or flush are poor.

You might be ahead and fold out a worse hand, but that's hardly a disaster here.

There's also a chance V will put on you a big combo draw or naked bluff and call off light.
Shoving here will never fold out better hands

Shoving here will never get called by worse

His raise size is too small to be on a draw, they usually raise more with a draw hoping you fold.

With that being said, I call and see a turn.

Sent from my SM-G920V using 2+2 Forums
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10-12-2015 , 05:15 PM
I had a reply all typed out. Then I realized that the flop wasn't monochrome and that we don't have a NFD in our equity pool.

With the hand as it actually occurred, shoving is horrible. My mistake.

We raised from the blind pre and then bet a flop that hits our perceived range. V raised anyway. It's hard to find a hand we're beating in his range, or even one that we can profitably call.

If V will fire the flop and then shut down, I can find a call. But I'm done with the hand except for perhaps a moderate b/f or c/c on the river with a blank runout.

Against passives or unknowns, this is a fold for me.
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10-12-2015 , 05:19 PM
Having the Ah is pretty bad for our equity. It's a bit hard to imagine any hand that villain would raise that doesn't have us beat. JT or QT maybe.
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10-12-2015 , 07:35 PM
Hard to know for sure what to do without reads, but we may have enough information as is.

I think there's a general correlation between bet sizing and aggressiveness, where low aggression is defined as a tendency to bet (or call) only with the very top of one's range.

That's not always true. A high aggression player will bet a speculative hand here if he figures the sum of his hand equity, fold equity and implied odds makes it worthwhile. Most aggros are real focused on fold equity, and if they have a bet-sizing tell, it will be betting more when behind. Some people are a lot more focused on the value side of the equation, and they will bet more when they are ahead and less when behind. This is usually a TAG doing this. You didn't say he was aggressive, much less a TAG, so I guess a fold is called for.

In the future, pay more attention to your reads, and be on the lookout for bet-sizing tells.
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10-12-2015 , 09:56 PM
Any more reads on villain? Is he aggro / spewy post-flop? Without any other reads I'm folding the flop.
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