Playing at a new 1/2 home game, but lots of players from my other one go there as well, I have a lot of reads on some players and not much on others.

V is a competent regular at these games, very LAG and able to adapt well, basically a crusher at these games. Not someone I like to tangle with, probably the best player there.

V views Hero as tight and somewhat passive, but definitely winning against the players here. I've been working on being more aggressive.

OTTH:

Hero is $750 effective with V, been playing/running well all night.

Hero raises to $8 in the HJ with QJ, V 3-bets OTB to $32, Hero calls. (Heads-up)

Flop: KT3 Pot = $67

Hero check, V bet $25, Hero raises to $115, V 3-bets to $275

Hero??

Analysis:

Pre-flop I think I could go either way. The open is fine, but I think calling or folding to the 3-bet works. QJs is often dominated, and I normally advocate for a fold with this exact hand when people are <150BB's deep. Also it is against a competent player who will definitely be putting some aggression post-flop. However, at the time I felt we were deep enough to call and realize our equity pretty well, even against a tough player.

On the flop, obviously a fantastic board for our hand. I like check-raising because we have an absurd amount of equity against really anything, but I don't want to check/call and be in a weird spot where he bombs on a brick turn. I also think he respects my raises a lot, and can make big folds facing a lot of pressure. I might be able to make AK fold on a lot of run-outs and get stacks in on an A.

Once he 3-bets, it is very strange. I block most AcXc combos, except for stuff like Ac5c, Ac4c, etc (Which is definitely in his range). I don't think he is doing this with AK (maybe AcKx?) because he isn't super spewy. Also, he knows I'm repping a lot of strength with this raise, so him coming back over the top might just mean he has a strong hand and wants to get the money in now.

Should I just be 4-bet ripping it? Call/folding? call/jamming on any turn? ]

Thanks for the responses, I'll post results soon.

PF your raise is fine but would definitely fold to the 3-bet given you explicitly stated this is the best player here and not someone you want to tangle with.

As played I like your check on the flop planning to C/R.

snap-shove to his 3!. There's no hand we really hate getting called by (we even have 40% against KK) and we have good FE against AK and KQ which constitute some portion of hsi range. Calling just means we have to make another decision OOP against the player we've identified as being tricky.

Joey,

Everything fine so far, now just push and cross your fingers.

I would be shocked if V didn't have a set or ATcc here. I don't think you have much fold equity, so I think we call and try to bink given how deep we are. But shoving and riding the variance train isn't awful either.

Yeah, I ended up shoving and getting snapped by KK. Unfortunate result but pretty much a cooler. Wondered if the line leading up to it was OK. Ran it twice and lost both :/

Just call the flop the first time. This isn't a good spot to raise vs his range.

Joey,


Lol @ not being able to make either a straight or a flush with four shots at it. Work on improving that.

Really makes a case for deep stack play being overrated.

M,


Nah, but this situation is one reason why I’ll sometimes lead into PFR here at this stack depth.

I doubt we have fold equity with a shove as villain would never play one pair this way. AA/AK is a very clear flat IP and deep to the x/r. Even a LAG rarely has anything but a set here, maybe KT that decided to 3-bet light pre.

The EV of shoving into a range of KK/TT is about 0.

The EV of calling if he never stacks off when we hit is 14/45*617+31/45*-160 = $82. We are getting well above direct odds.

The EV of villain on the turn if he calls a donk jam when we hit is about 10/44*1500-443 = -$102.

The EV of calling if he always stacks off when we hit is therefore 14/45*(617+102)+31/45*-160 = $113.

This is a very clear call.

Fold to the 3bet...

Brown,


Good post, but I don’t fully agree with that. I definitely see a number of LAGs in that spot putting hero on exactly a flush draw when checkraised and 3-betting the flop wider based on that. You’re right about no fold equity, though, they’re usually only doing that with hands they’re willing to go with.

Why? Shouldn't we call given stack sizes the odds we are getting?

I would never fold pre-flop, but it's probably not the worst thing to do if you don't know how to navigate these spots post-flop, and most people (as shown by this thread) don't. You should not be raising or betting into a board that smashes the 3-bettor's range.

+1. I’d have a zero raising range otf.

I do think raising flop with this exact hand is +EV though. I think checking overall is better though

AP it’s a sigh jam vs his bet and hope you suck out. I expect KK/1010/K10s almost everytime here.

Which exact hands do you think you rep in his eyes?

He likely sees it as pretty unlikely you flat a 3b OOP with KK. That hand should want to 4b. For the same reason, he may discount TT combos from your range as well.

He may think that you're either not opening KTo or throwing it away to a 3b, so at most you have two combos of KTs that could hit two pair on this flop (and if he holds a K in his own hand he can reduce this to one combo).

So from V's perspective, your x/r range doesn't have a ton of strong made hands (3 x bottom set, 2 x 2pr, 2 x middle set if we assume you're 4betting TT a third of the time for 7 combos total) while you probably have a lot of strong to middling draws (2 x NFD + overcard + gutter, 1 x NFF + overcard + pair, 7 x NFD + overcard, 1x OESD + FD, 1x OESD + bdsd, 1x gutter + FD for 13 of these; prob some other FDs and gutter + bdfds to consider as well).

That doesn't mean that I'm going to want to just shovel money in if I'm V with KJhh. I'd still want to just call and see how you react to the turn before I commit stacks. But I'm not going to automatically think you're strong here simply because you're x/r the flop. I'm going to know that you're repping a rather narrow range for strong made hands and will wonder whether you might be over semi-bluffing in this spot, since it's the sort of spot where the initial raiser tends to do that.

Yeah, that's not a cooler. He had a 35.6% chance to win both even if you ran it twice. Not like you got set over setted or he binked 67 with 89 here.

If that's not to your liking - take the lower variance line and just call his flop bet the first time. That way when you don't hit your draw you can safely fold to his turn bet (if he's not giving you odds to see river)

Also, is $8 your standard PF sizing?

AP, I think it's a call. I don't like shoving here at all.

Anti-jammers,

While meta-game should be a very small part of your decision-making at low limits, I do believe there are benefits to sometimes showing up with draws in big all-in spots like this. It’s one of the few things that a lot of these players seem to remember for a long time. So that’s another reason I’m jamming here.

I would call otf. AA, KK, TT, AK are all snapping or RRing, and with how deep you are, he will have a tough time getting away from a big hand if you hit. Also it would be unbelievably gross if he had a NFD.

As played theres no reason to jam the flop. you got near 0% FE. Id be more inclined to call flop and jam a non club turn to fold out the NFD. if you hit ott, i guess up to you.

I feel like meta-game concepts have fallen off the face of this forum so appreciate the PSA on it.

What did you think was going to happen when you raise the flop? That's also a pretty large raise. You block QQ and JJ. V's are not folding AA/KK/AK/KQ/KJ/KT/TT. So there's basically a minimal amount of dead money in the pot compared to stack sizes and now you're getting it in as a flip at best. Just call the flop! And that's not being results oriented. If you were in position I'd like a raise more.

I agree with just flatting the flop the first time, but this is lol. You are always getting odds to call the turn unless he uses some obscene sizing.

Haven't seen the results or other comments. That being said, I wanted to ask what you were trying to accomplish with your check-raise OTF? Remember we bet/raise for two reasons only: (1) to get value when ahead or (2) to bluff and get better to fold. Given this is a 3! pot, and this board is awfully wet and hits a PF 3! range pretty hard, I don't think we can accomplish either of these goals.

I would have checked the flop with the intention of calling and seeing the turn. In fact, against the best player at the table, I might have c/c both the flop and turn unimproved.