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Missed river bluff on wet wet board? Missed river bluff on wet wet board?

07-07-2017 , 10:46 PM
My basic style in casino 1/2 games is fairly ABC. But I do try to look for spots when they become available. I might have missed one at the game tonight.

I'm UTG with AJcc and raise it to $8. I'd opened about 5 times so far in the game always to $8. My image was probably pretty tight and I expected 1 - 3 callers. I got 3 callers (two in MP and the BB).

We saw a flop of JT9hhh. I guess boards don't get wetter. BB checks and I check.
Surprisingly it checks around - and a 4c drops on the turn.

I bet $16 into $30 and get 1 caller from MP. We are about $200 stacks effective.

River is 4h. So JhTh9h4c4h.
I check and the MP player bets $30 into $60. I fold without much thought.

In retrospect I wondered if this shouldn't have been a really good spot for a river C/R.
The villain seemed fairly straightforward - I hadnt seen him get out of line. But I had the sense that he would be savvy enough to represent the obvious flush when I made my hand obvious.

Thinking it over now,,, I could imagine his range should include AT, QJ, KJ, QT, 89, 88. Some of these holding could include a heart - some not. The fact that he didnt bet the flop would seem to me to eliminate made hands 2p+. Also it should reduce the chances of Ah from his holdings. On the other hand - I could reasonably have checked AxKh on that flop and bet the turn. If he had a hand - even as strong as Qh,Jx - I think we would have a hard time calling a $100 river check raise.

Do you think I missed a spot? Or better just sticking to my ABCs?
Missed river bluff on wet wet board? Quote
07-08-2017 , 12:14 AM
No hand is very WP. Only thing I do different is bet $20 ott. If he showed you some spaz bluff or sdv turned into a bluff, good for him

Also imo unless you x/shove river, you're npt getting enough folds here. And if you're x/shoving every jx here otr, you're going to be to overbluffing this river bc your value range here is super narrow. Not very important, but yeah that's another thing
Missed river bluff on wet wet board? Quote
07-08-2017 , 01:24 AM
i would guys most guys are
- not floating very light on turn
- not betting most 2P combos on river

If I am right it is hard for him to have many bluffs
Missed river bluff on wet wet board? Quote
07-08-2017 , 05:26 AM
The problem with the bluff raise here is that your story makes no sense and any hand that is willing to bet the river is too strong to fold. If you had a set, you'd bet the flop. If you were on the FD, you would have bet the river.

The villain will hem and haw for a minute, then "pay you off" with his 7h.
Missed river bluff on wet wet board? Quote
07-08-2017 , 03:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
The problem with the bluff raise here is that your story makes no sense and any hand that is willing to bet the river is too strong to fold. If you had a set, you'd bet the flop. If you were on the FD, you would have bet the river.

The villain will hem and haw for a minute, then "pay you off" with his 7h.
This is REALLY pessimistic. I think it's a reasonable line to check this flop with every hand we can have as OP. It's about the worst board possible for a set and not bloating the pot when 15 cards kill your hand seems fine.

The best hands to bluff this river are JT, T9, and J9 because they block all the boats. So assuming we play a style where we can have those hands, they would be the best bluff candidates. I think we can safely let AJ go.
Missed river bluff on wet wet board? Quote
07-08-2017 , 03:36 PM
It's important to note that check/raising the river here doesn't represent the A or K it represents a full house. You would be pretty insane to check/raise this river with the K for value.
Missed river bluff on wet wet board? Quote
07-10-2017 , 07:11 PM
Bluffing should be calculated

If you are setting up a bluff don't do it until you have cured the simpleton of calling. Make sure that on every occasion when he calls you beat him. After about the third time you beat him he will give you credit for having the best hand. Not until then you cure him, the fish will always call. Be sure that these weak players who always call are not in the pot or that you have taken steps to cure them.
Missed river bluff on wet wet board? Quote
07-11-2017 , 03:26 PM
Your line to bluff river doesn't make sense. If V puts any thought into it, he'll call it off. Flop needed to be bet in order to work.
Missed river bluff on wet wet board? Quote
07-11-2017 , 05:56 PM
He should never call if you raise but its 1/2 and these guys dont bring a fold btn

Raise is good play, so hard for him to have a strong enough hand to call
Missed river bluff on wet wet board? Quote
07-11-2017 , 07:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OSUTexan
Your line to bluff river doesn't make sense. If V puts any thought into it, he'll call it off. Flop needed to be bet in order to work.
Or you need to check all sets on the flop to have the potential to bluff, which is not that bad of a line.

I get what you're saying that people might THINK that you'd bet the flop with those hands, but still, the opponent has to A. Be that smart and B. not be smart enough to realize you might check flop with sets, and C. not be bluffing themselves
Missed river bluff on wet wet board? Quote

      
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