Loose-passive $5/$10 table in which I am driving the action. One decent TAG semi-reg (w/ some imagination in seat 10.) One giant passive-station in seat one and a few fit or fold reg-fish scattered about (I'm in seat five, am UTG in this hand and have an aggressive but clean image.)

Hero is UTG w/ QcJd
Hero raises to $40, BTN (seat 10) calls $40, everyone else folds

Flop: KsTs4h

$95 (2 Players) Hero bets $60, Villain (asks how much I have, he has $1,400 and I cover then) calls $60

Turn: 5h

$215 (2 Players) Hero bets $165, Villain calls $165

River: 7h

$545 (2 Players) Hero checks, Villain bets $300, Hero raises to $1,175+ (all-in), Villain...

- flop cbet is standard
- turn barrel folds out draws and floats (which are a big part of his range)
- river is often a missed draw or a non-nut hand looking for value (pretending to be a missed draw.) If I fire a third barrel he could call light or raise with his missed draws and if he does fire, I can make money off those hands (although I could run into the nuts - AQ or AJ of hearts) He definitely bets this river for thin value and as a bluff and he likely has a river jam with air in his arsenal.
- it's not exactly easy to rep a lot of hands concidering my line BUT there are a lot of big hands out there and I'm trying to put incredible pressure on him since how many river c/raises are bluffs?

...at least if I'm called I'll have a crazy image lol

...and now let the criticism begin

Main thing I see working against you are that both the K/10 OTF are not s which gives him a lot more combos of flushes OTR. I think it works against 1 pair hands a lot. Would you take this line with a set of tens?

I hate your betsizing otf, go half pot to set up 2/3rds or 3/4ths turn sizing. River play is actually sexy but im not sure I would make this play in fear of a check back vs villains tendencies. I would rather just overbet 3barrel bluff vs a loose passive. Now to analyzing ranges for villain, a loose passive should never bet here with a naked K, so his range is K10/44 or a khigh flush, with that being said I think you fold out those hands so good play.

I would probably c/c (although pending results on this hand I might have a different answer )

I like this line if and only if you've taken a similar line at this table with a monster hand and broke your foot off in someone's ass who called you and villain witnessed this.

I took a very similar line against a thinking player where I flopped a set on a draw board. I was OOP and bet flop and turn and then c/r shoved river. He called me with Mid pair and I turned over the set and table couldn't believe it.

About 20 minutes later, flopped an OESD and bet flop and turn and then c/r shoved Ace river when I whiff. Villain tanks, recalls my earlier line and then folds 2p face up

So if you took a similar line at this table where you owned someone with a huge river c/r then I can get behind this line.

And even if you didn't, I think a lot of Villain's range is going to be air or weak fledgling pairs that can find a fold here.

ANd if he soul reads and Hero calls you, you will get paid off huge on your next hand.

Looks exactly like a busted draw

esp if V is holding the K

This is true, which is why I was big on Hero taking this line if he took a similar line earlier while super strong...

But even though this looks exactly like a busted flush draw, does our villain have the balls to call it with Tx?

Or will he say, "I know you missed, but i'm going to wait for a better spot" which is what a lot of players do.

Everyone always talks tough but when it comes time to stack off with mid pair, lots of players "wait for a better spot." Hell, one of my pet peeves in this forum is to have the entire thread agree that a big call is +EV and then go right on to say, "But we should wait for a better spot"

So it comes down to villain player type and OP did provide some details on V that leads me to believe this shove could be +EV. Imo, that is largely dependent on if Hero took this line or a similar line with a monster so Villain can recall that this Hero likes to c/r shove rivers when big.

Also, FD is in villains range as well so we can fold out Axs type hands or flush draws that caught a rag pair that beats us.

I might be leveling myself but i'm very curious as to why villains range is weak fledgeling pairs. With those he can check river and take a showdown.

My amateur mind does not comprehend what you are representing with a b/b/cr line other than maybe AhKh or some other backdoor flush.

But if you are that strong why check river and allow it to possibly get checked through. How much air can he possibly have after calling two streets on a KJx board AQ/QT?

If you want to check-raise bluff, and you think he's floating you a lot, why did you not check/raise the turn instead of the river? (This is an actual question, not rhetorical. I feel like if I knew Villain was doing a lot of floating I would be check/raising the turn with a lot of hands, so why not include this one?)

villain is 'decent TAG semi-reg'... is he passive or aggro?

if villain has TPGK or even a 10x hand he would probably check the river for showdown...
if he has a set, he can play it this way avoiding a flip if you have a combo draw hand...

I really cant think of a bluffing hand he can have except a busted spade combo draw which should have raised you somewhere at least... everybody pushes for royal flush draw imo.

I like it.

Only hands in villains range that should be calling here are backdoor hearts.

I can definitely get behind a c/r turn line as well.

Overall, I think spots like this are really dependent on your history at the table. In my experience, 5/10 nl games are at a different level and you end up taking more atypical lines since the skill level at the table is higher. Playing straightforward isn't nearly as profitable because all the players at the table are playing level 2 and level 3 poker.

Or put another way, you get into some interesting spots when the table is a combination of level 2 and level 3 thinking players and you are constantly adjusting and balancing trying to stay one step ahead of them.

That is why I'm more supportive here vs if this was a 1/2nl or 2/5nl posting.

Cant cr turn due to stack sizes

Ding, ding, ding

Decent TAG semi-reg w/some imagination is the description I gave (and I don't believe that implies passivity)

Definetly not a showdown monkey

What did you think when he asked how deep you were playing before calling your flop bet? If he has a vanilla flush draw on the flop it should be obvious without asking that he can call $60. However if he has some backdoor stuff like QT or J9 that might be why he is asking.

given your active image, V would expect you b/f (or c/c) better Kx and b/c any flush.

the hands he is most likely to fold to a c/r are Tx and busted draws. i don't see either in his range. Tx releases ott or checks behind otr, plus you hold QJ reducing his busted draw combos and all the bdfds got there.

don't like it.

Big balls. I would like to work on finding more bluffing opportunities, so thanks for posting.

Agree that c/r is more likely to get a fold than 3rd barrel but obviously it costs more! The hands you're targeting (KQ, missed A-hi draws, other QJ) are definitely in his range but so is a lot of other stuff with which he'll sack up and call at 2:1 (KT, sets, maybe even AK). I think he's going to eliminate a lot of the huge hands you could have (sets, AA, top two) and your range is either bluffs or the backdoor flush, the latter of which is a lot less likely. If you are capable of playing more of the big made hands (TPTK or better) this way then your river c/r range is scarier. If you do that too much against timid players, you'll miss value with the real good hands. So I think this is definitely the type of player to river c.r.

One point: You say your turn bet is designed to fold out floats and draws, and I agree. So you have inconsistent reasoning: his range should include a lot fewer A-hi type draws. OTF he could be asking if he's getting the right implied odds to draw to AQ/AJ, but then he'd probably fold that OTT and check it behind OTR.

Villain has like exactly KQ or KJ here and likely can't call unless he views you as a maniac or w/e

I mean realistically this entirely depends on how villain views you and what his river betting range is

Since all draws missed OTR (except the BDFD) I figured that he would bluff if I checked to him as well as value bet any kings that he had (looking to get value from QQ or JJ type hands acting as bluff catchers.) If I barreled the river he would call with KX hands and might raise with his missed draws BUT if I c/rai I'd fold out all hands that beat me and make an extra $250-$350. Even if he did have a hand like AK, KQ, KJ or even KT (which most likely isn't there) he'd have a tough time calling.

Problem is... AQhh and AJhh fit the action perfectly as well

BTW: I'm viewed as a conservative-sicko (because of hands like this)

Yeah villain's range is capped at 1 pair hands and some small % of flushes

I don't hate it as long as you have the right image and villain bets light for value on the river and can make a decent fold

My point was that he wouldn't have many draws by the river if by your logic, he folds them when you bet the turn, and as you realize here, the only remaining draws that call the turn are those that picked up the FD.

But go back...if he is the type that calls too much with draws OTT then:

you could either 3-barrel profitably
or
just check the turn because he calls turn too much, plays well on the river, and your fold+pot equity sucks.

I think this is very accurate. While I fold out weak hands that go for thin value, too many draws that picked up the FD continue after my turn bet.