1/2 game, loud obnoxious idiot who just came from the baccarat table (that's all he was talking about, how much he just lost at baccarat) sits to hero's right with about $100, hero covers.

Donk opens to $12, hero 3-bets to $40 with AKs, folds around, donk calls.

Flop comes J J 2 rainbow. Donk checks. Hero?

We're probably in a WA/WB spot, with a decent chance of being WA and villain having either 3 or 6 outs to pair up.

Hands that have us drawing near-dead are random Jxs, and we have 6 outs against PPs and 2x hands, which are totally possible with this player.

With an SPR of less than 1, I think the default play is to jam and try to represent a big PP. But this guy is not at all thinking about what I'm representing. I'm not confident I can get this guy to fold any pair including 2x, while I do think he will fold unpaired hands like AT that we have crushed.

I also don't think this guy is bluffing in the rest of his little stack either. He seemed pretty unhappy that I 3-bet him and looked like he really wanted to see if he would hit the flop. That to me reads like he's playing fit-or-fold. So I think if I check behind I'm only giving him free chances to outdraw me.

But if we jam, we're really only getting called by better.

Shove. Way too many words for this spot

I did say I know the default play is to jam, but against a player who has no clue, we're not getting him to fold better hands (ie. small pair to our repped overpair) than us and we are only getting called by better.

Still auto-jam?

Maybe but wanted to see if anyone had any other thoughts on this.

I have a lot of experience playing with drunk Baccarat players and for me the intuitive answer is to shove. No need to over-analyze this spot.

The donk isn't really trying to put you on a hand and you don't need to "rep" anything, you are simply WAY ahead of his range and the pot is big enough already.

You are correct though, he will never fold ANY pair here. Sucks if you shoved and he snapped you with 44, but that's part of the game and you still have reasonable equity. if you are really concerned about that, why not just bet 20$ on this flop? If he missed with stuff like ATo he probably folds anyway.

I'd expect alot of pairs to be all in pre and if he has Jx so what you double the fish in a small pot. He might call with A highs or pretty much anything cause he already has half his stack in the middle.

Sorry he had a 2 and you bricked

It’s an auto jam, spr is too low to consider anything else

You're going to miss the flop 70% of the time. Dont 3 bet in this spot vs a guy with this stack size unless you are prepared to shove when you miss.

PS...jam the flop

What?

Iso a tilted short stacker with a premium is what I dream about

I didnt say not to 3 bet. I said dont 3 bet if youre not going to jam the flop when you miss.
Id 3 bet this and jam this flop every time.

I disagree with this for two reasons: 1, he may call with worse hands, such as weaker ace-high and even something like KQ. 2, there are still cards to come out - by betting you force V to choose between abandoning his equity and making a bad call.

I did auto-shove the flop after he checked, and he called with A2 and won, and that made me doubt my decision to shove...

But yes, now that I think about this again and after reading all the comments, shoving was definitely correct.

I would think about it this way:
1. If Villain re-raised you all-in for $100 pre, would you call?
2. If Villain originally opened to $100 (instead of $12) pre, would you call?

If answers to above are yes, then you need to treat your hand on the flop as if you already went all-in preflop due to SPR.

If you want to make life easier, you can consider raising pre slightly larger so that it makes even more sense to commit on the flop, whether you hit or miss.

If you 3! to $48 and Villain calls, there is $99 in the pot and only $52 left in Villain's stack - easy shove. It also forces Villain to commit with weaker hands - he should call on the flop with any two cards.

Hmm, hadn't thought of that actually. In this particular hand I felt like villain was not calling without a pair (maaaaaybe he'll call with AQ and AT, but I really don't think he would with any random ace or lower) and calling with any pair, so even though I was fairly certain shoving the flop was correct, it felt like an "only getting called by better and folding out worse" move.

But yes, if I did 3-bet bigger pre-flop, he would feel more compelled to call the flop bet with even weaker hands. I'll keep this in mind next time I pick up a premium hand against a shortstack.

snap shove

As far as missed flops go, this is one of the best ones. Shove ainec, @ lol 33bb EFF.

I feel like this hand being a shove is a correct example of the oft maligned "protection bet". You are correct you are only getting called by better and probably folding out worse. But you really have no way to get more money from worse anyway unless he improves to better than you.

Also he has a lot more unpaired hands then pocket pairs, Js, and 2s. You ship it to apply pressure on all of the unpaired hands that are behind you. He either has to call it off behind or you pick up a nice pot.

We bet when we are ahead because it's better than giving a free card and losing some percentage of the time.

If we bet enough, we collect more on the bets when we are ahead than we lose the few times the Villains suck out on us.

***

There are those whose goal is to bet enough, but not too much, so that the Villain puts in too much considering how few times they will suck out.

Same principle, stated more as a strategy than as an absolute. If we think they won't call 100 because they think it's too much, but we think they will call 50 even though WE think they shouldn't, that's the idea.

***

The second approach has a better chance of winning more over time (that is, it is +EV) but only if our judgments about the situation are reasonably accurate (if we could actually determine their accuracy).

Good judgment comes from experience.

Experience comes from bad judgment.

Haha, I like this a lot! It's so true, I definitely learn the most on the hands I make big mistakes in and lose!

"Well that was stupid. Maybe I shouldn't do that again."