Home game, social, pokerrr+zoom, 1/2, 100 buyin...9 handed...we've been playing for over a decade together, though villain is not a weekly regular.

Effective stacks are 300...

UTG, dealt AKs...raise to 6. This was my first misclick...wanted to go to 12, but either way I'm planning on 4 betting unless it's one of the rocks raising me.

MP, woman who is terrible...a calling station, will only bet with really strong hands, and will call most anything. Her default move is the min raise. She min raises to 12. If she had a big pocket pair, she would raise more.

Two late position OMC types call...both would raise if they had JJ or better.

Comes to me, and I misclick to 100...wanted to raise to 62...50 is a big inflection point in our game. A 25 raise would probably get three callers, so 50 will scare most hands away. BTW, if I only had 100 I would just open shove here. Done it many times and 90% of time get folds, other 10% I'm flipping or dominating.

She mulls, and I think she folds, but then a flop comes...turns out she called, other two muck:

Flop: 445, two diamonds (I have none).

If she has a medium pocket pair then she isn't folding. She would reraise preflop with AA,KK,QQ. If she has two big cards she isn't betting (she doesn't understand position) because, in her mind, she doesn't have a hand. There is ZERO chance if she bets she's bluffing. And she doesn't bet for thin value.

How much, if anything, do I bet here? 233 in pot, or something like that, 200 behind.

Any bet might as well be a shove, and you already have SDV and domination over most of her unpaired hands. Just check, imo. IF she could fold middle PPs, I'd shove.

Villain has unusual characteristics. I think max EV is playing totally straightforward.

- You have 25% against 77->JJ. You don't want her to call with that range.

- She will presumably fold most of her overcards to a bet.

- You are mostly not giving free cards by checking down, she is mostly giving you free cards.

- She won't bet unless she hits.

So just check down and fold to a bet because that puts her range on the exact cards that beat you.

Obviously bet turn or river A and K because if she has either, she will pay you off.

EDIT

I guess if she has a wider range like all broadways and a bunch of Ax, and she will call some of that to a shove, then shove now.

Just check. You have a big equity edge against her unpaired hands. The unpaired hands mostly fold to a shove and you can't get anything else to fold. You can only make money on a shove if she will call with a ridiculous range of unpaired hands or she will fold her low pairs.

In this situation just check down unless you catch an A or K. If she bets fold. If you catch the A or K then bet.

I ended up checking it down.

Turn was 10d...terrible card, as a big diamond was in her range as were 10s.

She checked back...at this point I thought we were probably tied.

River was an offsuit Queen...check/check.

She turns over AQ, with Ace of diamonds.

I asked why she didn't bet river:

"I had you on pocket Kings the whole time"!!!!

BTW, she is by far the biggest winner in our group over the last two months...go figure!

Stations will have winning runs even against good players because they get to the river a lot more. They will win with their meh hands like second pair and low pair a lot more.

It can even be a winning strategy against overly aggressive opponents that don't adjust. If a player is trying to bluff more then value with the same sizing then being a station is +EV.

The problem with being a station is that it's trivial for opponents to adjust for.

I once watched an old lady absolutely murder an overly aggro reg with the strategy of VPIP/PRF of 90/1 preflop and never folding top pair or better postflop. Hit him for about 4 stacks. It was hugely enjoyable to see.

jam flop. You have ok'ish equity vs her any two cards range (and I assure you her range is much wider than you'd think. Hell I see fish snap off overbets out of spite looking to crack a perceived AA with trash). You also have decent FE because once again believe it or not but live players will actually put you on monsters here despite how out of line such action is. Quite simply theyll just have an emotional reaction to the bet and fold everything but maybe QQ