middle two facing pot bet on river
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 7
quick background
playing in a live game in Prague: 25/50 CZK so roughly $1/2. I have 4,000 CZK ($200) and the villain in question has me covered. For quick conversion a dollar is roughly 20 CZK.
5 handed UTG limps for 50, villain completes in the SB and I check 98o.
150 in pot. Flop: 932r
Check, I bet 100, UTG calls, Villain thinks and calls. 450 in the pot.
Turn:8d. villain checks , I bet 400. Both of these players rarely fold. Unsurprisingly they both call. Now there is 1650 in the pot.
River: Qd. Villain tanks and leads for 1700.
Board: 9328Q. backdoor straight and flush got there. Villain in question had been a little spewey before like 3 betting me once with J8o and also check calling me on two streets with bottom pair before giving up to a 3rd barrel on the river and showing his hand to me.
I felt his most likely holding was 45 or some quirky straight draw or perhaps A3. We should be able to rule out J10.
Cry and call? Cry and fold?
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 37,493
It would be very strange for anyone to call the flop with naked JT here out of position.
It just doesn't make any sense.
Q9 is far more likely.
Hand is strange, but I'd call. I expect to see busted 54 here a good portion of the time.
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 611
Cry and fold is my first thought but you didn't provide much of a villain description. Can he be value betting some kind of weird queen or A9 etc?
River bets (especially pot size) scream extreme strength at 1/2 but our hand is pretty strong. Against complete unknown typical looking 1/2 player I think I would fold but I'm nitty.
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 417
Is he ever capable of bluffing here? Against people who can take this line as a bluff I will call sometimes. You have to be good 33% of the time to call. Against more passive players you're never good here. q9 got there, A4dd, A5dd, 64dd, 65dd, slow played 33, 22 beat you. If he's really loose he can have a hand like AJdd, JTdd, KJdd here.
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 51
I'd rule out his sets here since a majority to players at 1/2 will raise on the turn thy just aren't crafty enough to wait until the river. J10hh is the only combo that makes sense but if that's it so be it you are better than me and you are getting paid. Q9 is just unlucky for you. I think you might be Q3 Q2 82 83 hands and he thinks he just hit gin. Of coarse you will run into A4dd and those type of draws. SO it just comes down to what type of player this is. It is a tight player is gripe fold but if its against a loose player playing a lot of pots I'm calling.