V is playing 25-33% hands pre, either raising or cold calling mostly. Hes had a few all ins pre for 66-100bbs where hes shipped or called off with AQ AK and a hand not shown that lost pre to an unpaired AJo within about an hour of each other. He has about 700 in front of him so I am going to guess hes close to even now but he could be slightly up or down. I think he is not as tilted as before but still could be. This guy is calling with a very wide range as you'll see below. I cant remember any hands hes raised post flop but I am sure there were some I missed. He is calling with mid/top pairs good kicker, big draws, medium over pairs on a undercard board from what Ive seen. Not as loose in multiways but still calling with 2nd pair decent kicker and above type stuff.

Quick example hand before the HH I need help on. H raises UTG $20 w AK, V calls. HU. Flop Kh8x3h. I cbet 40 V calls. Turn 5x. I bet his last 180 in a 120 pot and he calls off with 7h6h and hits the river.

1/3
(400)UTG opens 10
(700)V UTG2 calls
HJ calls
(500)H BTN calls 10 w/ 99
BB calls

($50) A 9 6
x, UTG bets 30
V calls 30
LJ fold
H makes it 150
BB fold
UTG fold
V calls

UTG 95% had an ace. He is a very solid reg and he would not bet anything but an ace or a FD into 4 people and he folded so it is almost certain he had AJs/AQ/AK

($380) Turn T
V x
H ? (Has 340 behind)

V does take stabs when checked to as well. Something hes constantly been doing all night and a few people are taking advantage and he seems clueless and keeps doing it. Do we jam here and pray that he called a 5 way flop with a non flush draw or do we pot control/bluff catch river?

I stopped reading after the first paragraph since your hand history structure hurts my brain.
Some styling would help.

The villain you're describing in the first paragraph does not sound like a call station.
He sounds like a solid player who's properly defending his equity.

The hand history is fine.

I'd check behind. Not much worse can call your shove. His better range is going to be wider than his calling range.

Ah yeah the hh is fine, it's the example that got me all confused
Guess my brain is just a bit fried

I wouldn't check though, there are a lot of bad river cards that can come.
Any spade would really hurt us
K, J, 8, 7 all complete possible straights

I'd try to get it in now and hope villain calls with worse or some weird draw

What the hell are you doing raising the flop on this board texture with mid pair and no backdoor hearts?
You're lucky UTG didn't look you up tbh
AP the money is going in, so just jam ott and let him call off with Axs, or any draw with spade and avoid guessing games otr

Eh? 999 is a bit better than middle pair :P

What straight besides the one that already got there would v call the flop bet with? What offsuit spade hand would v flat preflop and call flop bet with? I don't see it very likely that if V was on a draw he didn't get there.

Jamming doesnt make much sense. No reason to turn your hand into a bluff. Check and reevaluate on the river.

That’s the worst turn card besides the 5s because not only the flush but also the OESD gets there, both of which are his most likely holdings to call your 5x flop raise.

As nitty as it sounds, I’m checking back turn and folding to any bet greater than $100 OTR.

Thank your stars that V didn’t donkbet into you OTT and is letting you see a free river. That line really gets the 2p2ers. They just can’t fold middle set to a $150 turn/$200 river donkbet line from villain.

Works for me, everytime.

Hero would be getting odds to call $150 on the turn with a set even if villain showed him a straight or flush.

Not really.


150/(380+150+150)=need 22%.

Hero has 9 outs (eliminating one very likely Ace in the cbettor’s range)=has only 18% with no implied odds as I’m never paying him a dime if the board pairs OTR.

Even if Hero was getting the right odds to call the $150, the beauty of the situation is that I’m never paying him off if the board pairs but he will pay off my river donk bet almost EVERY TIME with his set getting such a good price, given my unorthodox line.

Especially the regs.

#f***GTO #exploFTW

Eh formatting I read it as T9 oops

Everything is fine (including HH) until the turn, which sucks. Everything got there Check turn and evaluate river.

Since OP labeled villain as a call station (or at least someone who defends a large range)
There are a TON of possible hands he can still have here that we beat and only a few that actually got there.

Hands we beat:
AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A6, A5
KK, QQ, JJ
KQ, T9, T8, 98, 97, 96
66

A lot of these could have one spade

There really aren't that many hands that did get there
any two spades
QJ, TT and 87


Even if we remove a bunch of hands that villain would fold to a raise, we'd still have a bunch of hands left that we beat and that need protection

That's an awful turn. I'm fine just checking behind and re-evaluating the river.

T9o and ATo are all in V's range on the flop which are the only big non flush hands I could beat. I think he would have raised A9/A6/66/96s but not 100% sure. He does raise on the flop sometimes but as I said I cannot remember any showdown hands where hes done this.

There are a lot of Ax and 9x hands that hit a flushdraw on the turn. V could have every T9o-K9o, ATo-AQo but we are removing an A from the deck because UTG probably had one.

Is shoving here really that bad?

Will he call with worse? Will he fold a straight or better (I highly doubt he's folding any flush)? There are only eight flush cards left if he has one (9s would be OK), but it would suck to hit one of them.

Does V check here with a turned flush/straight? If I were him, I would bet the Turn to price you in on the River.

In your spot, I bet with the intention to gii if reraised (you'll have the correct odds to draw by then if you're behind).

You want something like AxXs (AxQs, AxJs) to either fold out or pay to draw.

I say bet about $175.

I'm fine with preflop.

I like offering poor 2:1 odds on draws so I raise to $170 on the flop but $150 is fine too (although the bigger raise may setup a more trivial commitment spot on even bad turn cards).

Nut low turn card as both the flush and 87 got there. You could argue that we're pot committed and should shove to protect against weirdo runner runners. We could also setup a bluffcatcher, although we'll see far more super gross cards than super good cards on the river. Think I lean to checking behind because pretty much every draw that he could have got there and we're behind (let's see what happens on the river) and otherwise if he called the flop super weak it's unlikely he'll improve (albeit not impossible) to beating us on the river.

ETA: I think it's a really tough spot. Especially since most people just go ahead and bet their flushes / straights here in a huge pot. They're happy winning the huge pot now and not getting tricky and letting the obvious two pear / set possibly get there for free. Which is more reason to bet. But on the other hand, he's gotta be *super* bad to be calling the flop with anything that is still behind.

GpukingalittleinmymouthG

He would call with a straight, and 80% sure he would call with AT and T9.

So if it was HU and V cbet 30 you'd recommend around a 145 reraise?

H x behind turn

River: 7
V bets 75
H leaves the casino

(what do you think he had with that weird bet?)

Yeah, pretty much I'd calculate whatever I'd need to do to offer 2:1 (which is current pot size + 2*bet), and then maybe I might fine tune it depending on what types of stacks that leaves (such as just shoving if that leaves a lol amount behind). But I'm also of the mind that (a) no one folds a draw on the flop (so go for max value against the range of hands that are most likely to continue to a raise) and (b) offering 3:1 or better is just offering too good of odds (especially against players who may also start repping scare cards).

GcluelesssizingnoobG

Lol @ river, practice running out better.

For that price, might be a crying call and just hope he's doing a blocking bet with two pear / Ax.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Two pair or small flush that he thinks has been counterfeited on the River.

If he would check a small flush/straight on the Turn, then raise River.

If he wouldn't check a flush/straight on the Turn, then just call River.

Now that Ive had a little while to think about it how bad would a jam be over that 75?

He would have went 150 or bigger if he had KsXx or QsXx

I was just going to type that a jam would be sexy!

Alas I am not a sexy individual. I think there is a 50% chance he would call with a Js here though so maybe its better that I don't over think things at the table.