2/5 NL live Bellagio (500 cap)

Sitting seat 4 with 1700 behind

Seat 5 1450 (Playing very agro and a wide range pre but shuts down post)
Seat 6 600 (Drunk casual into the game for 2k)

99 pre from UTG +1

Playing live from any opening scenario in early position I really like the limp 3 bet. I do it with a range of AA-JJ, 66-22, any Ace blocker suited A5-A2. I like this play on loose calling station tables.

I limp, S5 makes it 20, S6 calls, folds to me. I decide to set mine vs the decent stack of S5. I call.

Flop is Q 9 6

I don't like the check trap play much here seeing how I lose value vs drawing hands if they don't decide to go agro.

I lead for pot 65. S5 flats, S6 raises to 150. I raise to put S6 all in - 450. S5 shoves over the top for his 820ish more.

I know this scenario comes down to how much variance you can live with.
I tank for about a minute running the math and wondering if S5 could really be sitting on QQ. Maybe im not good enough to dump middle set here for a 3500 pot.

Was me putting S6 all in a bad move? Should I have just shoved over the top instead of giving S5 a chance to shove and I still have a decision for his 820 more? Figure he has J 10 at this point.

Do you masters of the poker race call considering the variance?

58% vs J 10
72% vs Any flush draw.

Cant have QQ right?

I think you're overdoing the L/RR, but this hand doesn't fall in your advertised L/RR range anyway.

Just open for $20.

As played, never three-betting here. I'd call, but not just to set-mine.

As played, why the overbet? I like leading out here, but why $65 into $63ish? (Can't remember Bellagio's exact rake schedule) I'd prob go $50. AP, def re-raising the small raise from Seat 6 for fat value and to charge draws. Now the call-off is trivial.

I mean, come on. Assuming that S6 folded (which is rare), there is already $1930 in the pot. You need 29.8% equity to call. If S6 called, the math is weirder due to the side pot, but there's even more money in the pot and they can have each other's outs. If you are ever considering a fold, you are playing scared money and need to move down.

Against a range of exactly QQ,55,JdTd you are 49.8%. Sure, QQ is possible, but discounted given the flat of your flop lead. There is also a crap ton of stuff that includes Ad (AdAx, AdKd, AdQx) in his range.

SNAP!

Call

You're right Garick. Its not that it was scared money. Its the fact he shoves here. I never snap call in that spot I always want to think out the hand again. The reason behind leading for a pot sized bet is to maximize value when flopping said set of top 2s. I create action pre with high value flop hands, so it give the table a persona that im a loose player. Over betting tourists in pots exactly like this one is hugely profitable play for me in the last 5 years.

I hate the open from UTG+1 because your hand and in this case 99 plays as a set mine everytime. In that game at Bellagio opening UTG leads to 4-5 way pots. when you're playing with bad players its rare to be 3bet when you're the big stack on a light 500 cap game.

Anyways I call and board runs out dry. S5 rolls over KQ and S6 mucks. Exact reason I over bet and break their stacks into 3 bets. Always thinking how can I get it all.

Edit
You're right that 99 doesn't fall into my L/RR range but its not an auto play for me with those ranges. A lot of factors go into how each hand is played. More of a guide line to protect my bet sizing for pre flop tells.