1/3
Effective stacks of relevant players:
V1 (EP) 250
Hero (MP) 300
V2 (BB) 700+ (covers, ldo)
Preflop:
UTG limps, V1 makes his standard raise to 12, hero calls with A
T
, button calls, V2 calls in BB, UTG calls. Five to the flop.
Flop: Q
T
2
Checked to preflop raiser, who makes his standard c-bet of around half the pot, which in this case is 30. Hero calls. Button folds. BB/V2 makes it 140. UTG folds. V1 calls. Hero?
Hero calls V1's initial flop bet because he has a good sense of how V1 plays. Basically, V1 will bet the turn with any hand that beats hero and check any hand that hero beats. The main exception is when the turn is a ten and V1 has a hand like JT.
Hero has played over 1000 hours with V2 and call very accurately range him as having 22/QT/Q2/T2. Maybe an outside chance that he has TT or AQ, but he usually three-bets those in the BB, given the pf action. V2 respects hero's call sufficiently that he only check-raises the flop with hands that are ahead of KQ. I consider it non-negotiable that hero is at least 95% accurate about V2's range. I am that confident about my hand-reading (pattern-matching, really) skills against some regs.
V1's range once he calls is basically KJ/J9 for OESD and flush draws. This includes combo draws. He's the sort to just flat with K
J
once he gets raised. Hero's ranging of V1 is less certain, but still probably 90% that I am exactly right. If I am wrong, he probably has AA/KK/AQ/KQ. Once he puts in that call, he's never folding. His range is kind of annoying because KJ takes away potential ace outs for me and flush draws take away at least two outs, four if he has the open-ended straight flush draw.
Heads-up against V2, I would just jam knowing I am taking slightly the worst of it against his range because it's close and I have the meta reason of making sure that he calls with two pair when I jam with a set.
I actually have two lines to consider three-handed. One is to just jam the flop for a practically certain three-way all-in. The other is a bit fancier. I can call with the intention of calling any turn bet unless the board pairs. I am fairly certain that V2 will not put any money without a boat once the board pairs. If he boats (or quads) up, he will probably bet the turn to get money from draws that have seemingly irresistible pot odds, but there is a chance he checks. If he checks a turn Q then bets a river heart, my hand is no good and I can throw it away. There are also turn cards that will make V2 check the turn. I think he will check an ace or king unless he has a set. He might check a jack. Possibly a nine or eight. So by calling I don't always face a turn bet that I have to call.
I think that jamming and calling with the intention of folding if the board pairs are both +EV when compared to folding the flop (which I am never doing). One play is definitely easier. The other is really hard to evaluate at the table and requires making a lot of assumptions.