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Mega raise on river - call?

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10-20-2020 , 11:42 AM

Arsenalbet

newbie

Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 27

1/2, 6 handed

Folds to Hero with AQhh in CO
Opens to $6 - Btn and BB (Villain) call

Villain is loose pre and fairly aggro post. Have been caught bluffing once or twice in two hours.

Flop ($19): 3h3c8s
Checks through
Turn: Ks
Villain checks - Hero bets $10 - Btn folds - Villain calls
River ($39): A
BB checks - Hero bets $20 - Villain raises to $150

🤔?

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10-20-2020 , 11:46 AM

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,496

Sizing and situations on his previous bluffs?
In general seems like a pretty straight forward fold.

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10-20-2020 , 11:48 AM

jdr0317

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 8,231

Not sure why you bet this turn.

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10-20-2020 , 11:50 AM

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,496

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdr0317

Not sure why you bet this turn.

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Seems like a good spot to pick up the pot uncontested, ya? Might even get some middle pocket pairs to fold.
And if someone has a draw, they are overpaying for it.

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10-20-2020 , 11:53 AM

jdr0317

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Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 8,231

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

Seems like a good spot to pick up the pot uncontested, ya? Might even get some middle pocket pairs to fold.
And if someone has a draw, they are overpaying for it.

You might get like 22 to fold. But almost no one is folding a pair on this board to a single bet besides some nit who always puts someone on the hands that improved on whatever that street’s card is.

This is an especially poor hand to bluff with because we still win here a large portion of the time.

Also, bb’s range is going to be mostly air. Not low pocket pairs and flush draws. And if he’s behind without a flush draw, we’re not offering much free equity to let him pair up. Plus once in a blue moon he has a Qx Hand, we river a queen and now get to make this $10 bet for value

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10-20-2020 , 12:08 PM

samo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 4,251

$209 in the pot, $130 to call, so chop equity would be $130/($339/2), or 76%. If my math is correct, would need to find 3 chop/bluff combos for every 4 of his value combos.

88/A3s = 5 combos. Let’s give him ½ of the 6 remaining AK combos (3), and another couple of 43s. Total value = 10.
If he has 8 bluff/chop combos, call. That said, large X/R on river usually = value.

Flop – I’d bet small to clean up any over card equity, planning to continue on cards good for PFR range on the turn. Backdoor hearts in your favor.

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10-20-2020 , 12:34 PM

hitchens97

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,455

This is an interesting one. Usually the river check raise is a monster, but the initial pot was very small and we have an aggro villain. I think one thing to consider here is would he call non flush draw Ace high on the turn.

I think I make the crying call, and hope he doesn't show up with A8 or a random 3.

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10-20-2020 , 12:50 PM

venice10

Referee

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 25,855

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

Sizing and situations on his previous bluffs?
In general seems like a pretty straight forward fold.

+1

The ace and king should have hit your range for raising pf. You could is easily have AK here. If he bluffed you, he'll be so proud of his bluff he'll show. He's so bad you'll catch him on the next one.

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10-20-2020 , 12:59 PM

Arsenalbet

newbie

Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 27

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

Sizing and situations on his previous bluffs?
In general seems like a pretty straight forward fold.

His bluffs were pretty standard sizing-wise. Can't recall seeing an overbet

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10-20-2020 , 01:02 PM

#10

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,496

Snap fomd them

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10-20-2020 , 03:26 PM

#11

Arsenalbet

newbie

Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 27

Seeing it was checked through the flop, the flush draw on the turn and his loose history I curiously sigh-called.

He had 53o

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10-20-2020 , 03:41 PM

#12

Javanewt

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Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,780

I fold this. More power to him if he's bluffing, but it's not worth it to find out.

Oops, just saw results (had this window open too long!). 53 sounds about right, though. I hope you came back and crushed him.

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10-20-2020 , 04:01 PM

#13

WereBeer

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Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,700

LOL

I was in the fold camp before I saw results.

This is why you can just default to folding 1 pair hands to river raises at LLSNL, because however much what they are doing doesn't make any sense at all, 90% they beat 1 pair.

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10-20-2020 , 04:08 PM

#14

Javanewt

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Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,780

Plus, this is a terrible spot to bluff because most LLNL players won't fold a big A and definitely won't fold AK. (Not that it matters here.)

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10-20-2020 , 04:23 PM

#15

Arsenalbet

newbie

Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Javanewt

He busted let's say...

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