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mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help!

03-05-2011 , 09:39 AM
2/5 live 6 handed. i have $550 to start with, utg+1 and bb each around 1500, sb has 400.

I raised Ac9c UTG, UTG+1 calls, so does sb and bb.
flop came 5c8s7c, sb leads 40, bb calls 40, i raise to 150, utg+1 3bet 450, sb fold, bb tanked for awhile before folding.
utg+1 is a fish but ran really hot, and yes he plays nuts like that, so i assume he has least 2 pair/set/ or made straight.
now WHAT?
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 09:54 AM
I shove. Very likely behind at the moment, but a 6 quite possibly chops the pot and any club wins it. A small possibility he's on a combo draw with something like 6c8c. We've got 36%+ to hit a club and we're putting 400 into about 850 (assuming he calls, but we have no FE).

High variance, but profitable shove as far as I can see.
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 10:14 AM
Meh. I really hate the raise on the flop. Just call the 40 and see what happens.

How much did you raise PF?
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 10:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grindme
Meh. I really hate the raise on the flop. Just call the 40 and see what happens.

How much did you raise PF?
sorry, i raised to 20, 3 callers, made it total of 80 going to flop.
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 10:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grindme
Meh. I really hate the raise on the flop. Just call the 40 and see what happens.

How much did you raise PF?
whats wrong with the raise on the flop?
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wahaha
2/5 live 6 handed. i have $550 to start with, utg+1 and bb each around 1500, sb has 400.

I raised Ac9c UTG, UTG+1 calls, so does sb and bb.
flop came 5c8s7c, sb leads 40, bb calls 40, i raise to 150, utg+1 3bet 450, sb fold, bb tanked for awhile before folding.
utg+1 is a fish but ran really hot, and yes he plays nuts like that, so i assume he has least 2 pair/set/ or made straight.
now WHAT?
What I would like to add and elaborate a little is this,

With a drawing hand for a profitable play you've got to have couple things developing at your table
1.) If OOP you tend to limp to make sure if you get others to limp too you will still have the implied odds for a draw. So, don't raise coming in. Limp if you are sure there'w not gonna be a raise behind.
2.) In position you limp if you see limpers in front of you.
3.) Try to have a hands that flops a draw to the nuts like AXs or any two Broadways part of a str7-flush or middle pairs that flop middle sets.
4. In position you can call a raise from up-front if that raise was called by another one or two deep stacks before the action comes to you.

In this hand that we're talking about the more you raise OOP the less implied odds you've got if you flop a draw. Why? Because your raise has made the preflop pot a little bigger and now on the flop you will face a bet proportionally bigger in comparison with the effective stacks. And the smaller the ration is, (effective-stacks/flop-bet), the less implied odds you've got and that means that sometimes you cannot call that crucial flop bet. Me personally, if OOP, I would have raised with AKs/AQs/KQs because these hands not only draw to the nut but also tend to flop TPTK or TP-CORD-K. (Top Pair + COOrdinated Kicker). But still even this is not the preferred play OOP. That's why OOP is very difficult to build situations that favors draws if you have skillful players behind.

The way this hand evolved to this point I would not call the remaining stack with a draw. Why? because you've got no implied odds with money behind, you are calling and doing that you've got no FE, plus now this is just for myself: For big pots, big money, I’ve got a good hand. Usually I got the best hand when I get the money in. I can’t help if I get outdraw. If my opponent has the best hand at the last card, he would have had to have the worst hand until that card. He would have to outdraw me to take the pot, and the player who stays on the worst hand, with the hopes of catching a winner, is going to go broke in the long run. As you see, you don't have a hand yet, you probably have the worst hand at this point and you're hoping to catch a winner to take the pot away. And the most important is that I don't want to have the best hand at the last card. I don't want and I'm not looking forward to that. All of this points out to me in the direction of a losing play in the long run. If you call the shove of $450 the best you can expect with two cards to come is to make your draw and win and even if you win this pot you draw at a ration of 2:1 or a little better and that means a break even proposition. You invest all your stack twice and win once (one time lose and the next time may win)., plus some small change between that is worthless.

Che,

Last edited by always_tilting; 03-05-2011 at 01:05 PM.
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 01:37 PM
Preflop: I will often raise hands like A9s UTG 6 handed, but I need some sort of a reason to do it. If you're in the type of game where you expect your UTG raises to get called by over half the table, you have a reason not to raise that hand. Also, how much did you raise?

Flop: Doing anything other than raising here is bad. You have too much equity to fold, but your implied odds aren't nearly as large as they first appear. If you hit your gutshot you're unlikely to get paid off when the board is 8765 and screaming straight. If you hit your flush, it will be obvious to everyone that a flush is possible. If your A is somehow drawing live to the best hand, you're not going to get action from a hand that flopped top pair. You aren't that deep, your equity is large, and you bloated the pot before the flop. I'd raise a little less than the pot (with a $20 preflop raise that means about $200 total) and snap call a shove, especially against a maniac who could be semi-bluffing with a worse draw or a one pair hand that leaves your drawing to as many as 18 outs.

Just my opinion...
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 01:58 PM
Real life, I prob just call on flop, but Moneyline is right about action killing if you hit, so I like the raise. You must call shove. I suspect you are flipping against his range (sets, PPs that fit into the SD, overpairs, a couple of A8 and 2-pair type hands), and there is a monstrous amount of dead money in the pot.

High variance, but def call.
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoronaAndLime
whats wrong with the raise on the flop?
Before you raise you should always ask yourself why am I making this bet? Have a plan and know why you are making a certain play.

With that size it's not to take it down. It's not for value because we dont have a hand.

So what's it doing then?
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 03:30 PM
The raise is fine, its obvious purpose is a semibluff, it's a fine good spot for it as it's tough to get paid when we hit on this board. People hate paying off flushes and our straight outs put a 4-straight on board. At the same time we have good equity against any made hand.

Obviously villain's 3bet sucks hard for us but we're calling (essentially) 400 to win almost 800 and are way the hell priced in.
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 03:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaffer
The raise is fine, its obvious purpose is a semibluff, it's a fine good spot for it as it's tough to get paid when we hit on this board.
Right, but it's sizing is horrible. That's what I'm getting at. I guess I should have been more clear. The pot is ~200 after we call the 40 and then we make it 110 more.

The raise IMO should have been closer to pot. ~250 to go. Then it's such an easy call if/when we are shoved on.
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 05:03 PM
here's the scenario if i just flat the 40 on flop (since i know what they holding)

so i flat 40, pot is 200, and utg+1 raise to 200 or more, sb fold anyway, bb tank, and call (him and utg+1 both are 300 bb deep)

i guess here we have to shove?
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 05:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoronaAndLime
whats wrong with the raise on the flop?
Yeah the raise on the flop is meh at best. You push out a lot of draws. Second if your up against 2pair or a set. Your going to have to play a big pot on a draw. Which could be a big loss.

As played, if I'm raising I'm never folding on this flop. "All In"
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 05:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by always_tilting
What I would like to add and elaborate a little is this,

With a drawing hand for a profitable play you've got to have couple things developing at your table
1.) If OOP you tend to limp to make sure if you get others to limp too you will still have the implied odds for a draw. So, don't raise coming in. Limp if you are sure there'w not gonna be a raise behind.
2.) In position you limp if you see limpers in front of you.
3.) Try to have a hands that flops a draw to the nuts like AXs or any two Broadways part of a str7-flush or middle pairs that flop middle sets.
4. In position you can call a raise from up-front if that raise was called by another one or two deep stacks before the action comes to you.

In this hand that we're talking about the more you raise OOP the less implied odds you've got if you flop a draw. Why? Because your raise has made the preflop pot a little bigger and now on the flop you will face a bet proportionally bigger in comparison with the effective stacks. And the smaller the ration is, (effective-stacks/flop-bet), the less implied odds you've got and that means that sometimes you cannot call that crucial flop bet. Me personally, if OOP, I would have raised with AKs/AQs/KQs because these hands not only draw to the nut but also tend to flop TPTK or TP-CORD-K. (Top Pair + COOrdinated Kicker). But still even this is not the preferred play OOP. That's why OOP is very difficult to build situations that favors draws if you have skillful players behind.

The way this hand evolved to this point I would not call the remaining stack with a draw. Why? because you've got no implied odds with money behind, you are calling and doing that you've got no FE, plus now this is just for myself: For big pots, big money, I’ve got a good hand. Usually I got the best hand when I get the money in. I can’t help if I get outdraw. If my opponent has the best hand at the last card, he would have had to have the worst hand until that card. He would have to outdraw me to take the pot, and the player who stays on the worst hand, with the hopes of catching a winner, is going to go broke in the long run. As you see, you don't have a hand yet, you probably have the worst hand at this point and you're hoping to catch a winner to take the pot away. And the most important is that I don't want to have the best hand at the last card. I don't want and I'm not looking forward to that. All of this points out to me in the direction of a losing play in the long run. If you call the shove of $450 the best you can expect with two cards to come is to make your draw and win and even if you win this pot you draw at a ration of 2:1 or a little better and that means a break even proposition. You invest all your stack twice and win once (one time lose and the next time may win)., plus some small change between that is worthless.

Che,
I know you wouldn't play a hand like this. Let's just say you where tipsy one night and you raise A 9 UTG someone donks into you and you raise. If super fish raises you I don't ever see you folding.

See the problem with raising is op is trying push out the fish. He just tapped the glass with a meh hand on a meh board and got caught. Don't get scared now call. Next time you will learn. Raising with players left to act oop is suicidal as well. But after making a mistake chips have to go in the middle.
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 05:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoronaAndLime
whats wrong with the raise on the flop?
What's wrong is that he was getting 4:1 on the flop with a clean flush draw, an inside straight draw, and possibly even the Ace was live. Raising reopened the betting and turned a profitable and easy call into an unprofitable facing a large reraise.

Other comments about preflop are also right on.
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 06:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by halpgr
What's wrong is that he was getting 4:1 on the flop with a clean flush draw, an inside straight draw, and possibly even the Ace was live. Raising reopened the betting and turned a profitable and easy call into an unprofitable facing a large reraise.

Other comments about preflop are also right on.
Yes, pardner, You got it right on. The key point is this: "Raising reopened the betting and turned a profitable and easy call into an unprofitable facing a large reraise." (by halpgr)

Che,
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-05-2011 , 07:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks
I know you wouldn't play a hand like this. Let's just say you where tipsy one night and you raise A 9 UTG someone donks into you and you raise. If super fish raises you I don't ever see you folding.

See the problem with raising is op is trying push out the fish. He just tapped the glass with a meh hand on a meh board and got caught. Don't get scared now call. Next time you will learn. Raising with players left to act oop is suicidal as well. But after making a mistake chips have to go in the middle.
Yeah, I will not fold trips with an Ace kicker. You are absolutely correct. But I also understand the big difference between trips or a set. Both hands are called "three of a kind" but the difference is like a day and night. We all know that. Of course I agree with all you just have said.

On the other hand, with a drawing hand to the nuts you need to see lots of flops and got to have a plan of managing your bets/calls in such a way as to be able to cal the turn bet and for this to happen you've got to have a pot size of such number of chips as the ratio of effective-stacks/turn-bet to be big enough and give you correct price to call. Another words the effective stacks behind has got to be deep. What we're talking here refers to deep stack play of 150bb to 200bb or even more behind. And the entire theory for such situations is the bad rock of post-flop play.


Che,

Last edited by always_tilting; 03-05-2011 at 07:19 PM.
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-06-2011 , 01:42 AM
WTF is going on here.

I feel that there is a serious lack of understanding regarding:

#1 Implied odds and the importance of implied odds
#2 Position
#3 When we should draw

Always_Tilting and Halpgr pretty much nailed it so no need to rehash.

Yes, aggression pays off and all that...

But we need to recognize when we should be drawing

And we also need to understand the value and power of position.

I get the feeling from OP that he does not have the proper respect and understanding of the concept of position.

I know, we are all awesome poker players and so we can ignore the basics because we are "advanced"....

But the fundamentals are the fundamentals for a reason, because they work.

Routinely putting yourself in this situation is just a recipe for disaster. Before you know it, all of your sessions are characterized by being OOP and getting all of your money in bad and then retroactively justifying your play...
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-06-2011 , 03:28 AM
I agree with much of what Always_tilting said, and also respect IlikeCaliDonks counter.....

but I personally have 1 question here.... whats wrong with open raising A9s when we are 6handed.... seems crazy-nit to me
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-06-2011 , 07:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flynn87
I agree with much of what Always_tilting said, and also respect IlikeCaliDonks counter.....

but I personally have 1 question here.... whats wrong with open raising A9s when we are 6handed.... seems crazy-nit to me

Nothing wrong with it.
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-06-2011 , 11:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wahaha
2/5 live 6 handed. i have $550 to start with, utg+1 and bb each around 1500, sb has 400.

I raised Ac9c UTG, UTG+1 calls, so does sb and bb.
flop came 5c8s7c, sb leads 40, bb calls 40, i raise to 150, utg+1 3bet 450, sb fold, bb tanked for awhile before folding.
utg+1 is a fish but ran really hot, and yes he plays nuts like that, so i assume he has least 2 pair/set/ or made straight.
now WHAT?
What's going on here?
Did you shove?
Did you won the pot?
Or what?

Che,
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-06-2011 , 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flynn87
I agree with much of what Always_tilting said, and also respect IlikeCaliDonks counter.....

but I personally have 1 question here.... whats wrong with open raising A9s when we are 6handed.... seems crazy-nit to me
6 handed?

sorry, I thought we were fullring

disregard half of my rant
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-06-2011 , 02:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by halpgr
What's wrong is that he was getting 4:1 on the flop with a clean flush draw, an inside straight draw, and possibly even the Ace was live. Raising reopened the betting and turned a profitable and easy call into an unprofitable facing a large reraise.
Explain to me exactly how the call (shove) is -EV here?! It's high variance, but not unprofitable with these pot odds...

I agree with someone who said above that a little bigger reraise might have been a better idea.

I'm not a fan of flatting, but sure you can flat the 40 bet here, problem is that you might have to fold a blank turn against a pot sized turn bet, and have trouble getting paid off when you hit. I rather reraise for FE and if money ends up going in I've still made a +EV move.
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-07-2011 , 01:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
Routinely putting yourself in this situation is just a recipe for disaster. Before you know it, all of your sessions are characterized by being OOP and getting all of your money in bad and then retroactively justifying your play...
This rant is very, very results-oriented IMO. At the time hero made his flop raise, there's no way he could predict that UTG+1 flopped a monster and was going to cold-3bet and put him in a crappy OOP spot. He's reacting to a weak-ass donk from the SB and a weak-ass call from the BB that could mean any mixture of weak-ass made hands, draws, bluffs, whatever. Yes it's profitable to draw, yes fundamental solid poker is fine in spots, but our implied odds are not great here because A) our overcall screams flush draw to anyone at the table with two brain cells they can rub together, WTF are they going to do, check-call off their stacks when a club hits the turn and all of a sudden we start bombing, and B) our straight puts a 4-straight on the board and doesn't even bother to give us the nuts. This makes the semibluff option much more attractive.

Of course UTG+1 screws us with the cold 3bet, but it seems to me like that's a factor in the severity of your judgment against the raise and of course it can't be.

I suspect everyone judging the raise here needs to re-read the HH (although it could have been posted better). Flat-calling the bet and drawing would not have closed the action. This is a spot where we are UTG. The SB donked and the BB called. We raised, and UTG+1 cold 3bet.
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote
03-07-2011 , 02:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grindme
Meh. I really hate the raise on the flop. Just call the 40 and see what happens.

How much did you raise PF?
this
mega draw with 2 over cards on flop, help! Quote

      
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