Two Plus Two Poker Forums Mea Culpa, short term and small +ev spots
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

 Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

02-18-2014, 01:35 AM   #1
Lapidator
LLSNL Frequent Flyer

Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: lying dog-faced pony soldier
Posts: 13,763
Mea Culpa, short term and small +ev spots

Having put a few hours into drilling into the rest of 2+2 for some education as to what "short term" and "long term" were for the live poker player, I found this "Protecting Your Bankroll" which I can honestly say I had not read before.

Herein, I find:

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Cry Me A River For example, take one hand of his 20/80 situation. If we fold, we lose \$something. If we call, there are two possible outcomes: We lose, this is significantly worse than folding. We win, this is significantly better than folding. Given 20% equity in the pot our chances of these two events are: 0/1 80% 1/1 20% So 80% of the time the guy who folds gets to 50NL ahead of us. Now, let's take that to the OP's two hands in a stretch of 20,000 hands. If we fold both times, we lose \$something. If we call, there are three possible outcomes: We lose both. This is significantly worse than folding. We win once. This is better than folding. We win twice. This is significantly better than folding. Given 20% equity in the pot our chances of these three events are: 0/2 64% (80)(80)/(100)(100) 1/2 28% 2/2 8% (20)(20)/(100)(100) So now, 64% of the time the guy who folds gets to 50NL ahead of us. But what happens if we encounter this situation four times? If we fold all four times, we lose a static \$something. Now there are five possible outcomes when we call. We lose all four hands. This is significantly worse than folding. We win one hand. This is better than folding*. We win two hands. This is significantly better than folding*. We win three hands. This is very significantly better than folding*. We win all four hands. This is very significantly better than folding*. Given 20% equity in the pot our chances of losing all 4 hands is 40.96%. I'm not going to solve for all the other individual results because it's not important. Now the whole thing has turned. 40.96% of the time he guy who folds gets to 50NL faster than the guy who calls. The guy who calls gets there faster 59.04% of the time. *I've skipped determining how much better winning is than folding because that's based on our edge (EV) which is unknown and assumed it's enough to so that 1 win is better than 4 folds. It's possible that our edge is not that high, but all that means is that we need to encounter this situation 5 or 6 or 7 times.
And then in the same post, in conclusion:

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Cry Me A River When we have something like 39% or even 30% equity then the "long term" is two hands!!!!
An elegant explanation.

Indeed, the short term becomes the long term much quicker then I had considered.

Thus, Mea Culpa.

02-18-2014, 05:06 AM   #2
HappyLuckBox
old hand

Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,488
Re: Mea Culpa, short term and small +ev spots

I couldnt really understand what the quoted text was, since im reading out of context. I did read the linked threads first few pages though.

Glad you understand now. In reality the short term = long term. This guy explains it pretty well:
Quote:

A good poker player has a mindset where he approaches every new situation by making a decision that maximizes his profit, as if he were faced by that same decision an infinite amount of times.

Ex:
If ive got the nut flush draw
A5ss

Flop K 7 3 ss
\$100 flop
Villian shoves \$100 all in.

Im always calling. I dont even need to think about it. I can expect to profit each time i call. We start building our long term graph the correct way by making all the correct short term decisions.

You should be doing the +ev decision no matter what your equity is. Whether its 33/66 or 8/92 where you only have a 8% chance of winning.

Ex:
We have 66
We know our opponent has AA (for examples sake)
Flop K T 2 rainbow
Pot \$100
Our opponent bets \$5 all in

Call

Last edited by HappyLuckBox; 02-18-2014 at 05:22 AM.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Links to Popular Forums     News, Views, Gossip and Books     Beginners Questions     Marketplace & Staking     Casino & Cardroom Poker     Internet Poker     NL Strategy Forums     Poker Goals & Challenges     Las Vegas Lifestyle     Sporting Events     Other Other Topics Two Plus Two     About the Forums     Two Plus Two Magazine Forum Marketplace & Staking     Commercial Marketplace     General Marketplace     Staking - Offering Stakes     Staking         Staking - Offering Stakes         Staking - Seeking Stakes         Staking - Selling Shares - Online         Staking - Selling Shares - Live         Staking Rails         Transaction Feedback & Disputes     Transaction Feedback & Disputes Coaching & Training     Coaching Advice     Cash Game Poker Coach Listings     Tournament/SNG Poker Coach Listings Poker News & Discussion     News, Views, Gossip and Books     Poker Goals & Challenges     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     That's What She Said!     Legislation for Poker & Income Taxes for Poker Players     Twitch - Watch and Discuss Live Online Poker     Televised Poker General Poker Strategy     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Poker Tells/Behavior, hosted by: Zachary Elwood     Poker Theory     Psychology No Limit Hold'em Strategy     Medium-High Stakes PL/NL     Micro-Small Stakes PL/NL     Medium-High Stakes Full Ring     Micro-Small Stakes Full Ring     Heads Up NL     Live Low-stakes NL Limit Texas Hold'em Strategy     Mid-High Stakes Limit     Micro-Small Stakes Limit Tournament Poker Strategy     STT Strategy     Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos     Mid-High Stakes MTT     Small Stakes MTT     MTT Community     Tournament Events Other Poker Strategy     High Stakes PL Omaha     Small Stakes PL Omaha     Omaha/8     Stud     Draw and Other Poker Live Poker     Casino & Cardroom Poker         Venues & Communities         Regional Communities     Venues & Communities     Tournament Events         WPT.com     Home Poker     Cash Strategy     Tournament Strategy Internet Poker     Internet Poker         Global Poker         BetOnline.ag Online Poker     Commercial Software     Software         Commercial Software         Free Software General Gambling     Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.     Probability     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics         OOTV         Game of Thrones     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     Las Vegas Lifestyle     BBV4Life         omg omg omg     House of Blogs Sports and Games     Sporting Events         Single-Team Season Threads         Fantasy Sports     Fantasy Sports         Sporting Events     Wrestling     Golf     Chess and Other Board Games     Video Games         League of Legends         Hearthstone     Puzzles and Other Games Other Topics     Politics and Society     History     Business, Finance, and Investing     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Religion, God, and Theology     Travel     Health and Fitness     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Programming

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:37 AM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top