I couldnt really understand what the quoted text was, since im reading out of context. I did read the linked threads first few pages though.
Glad you understand now. In reality the short term = long term. This guy explains it pretty well:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cry Me A River
I used your own example.
So, what now your example is not good enough?
Feel free to come up with another example if you like and I'll prove you wrong.
again.
So what? The long run is the same as the short run. Unless you have some way of predicting the future, you do not know if you will run good, run bad, or run to expectation.
The only way you're assumptions work is if you know you will run bad.
If you run good, your assumption is wrong. You make more money than our buddy playing it safe.
If you run average, your assumption is wrong. You make more money than your buddy playing it safe.
If you run bad, then yes, your buddy makes more than you.
Well, except those times when you don't run bad enough and you still make more money than your buddy even while running below expectation.
In the example given, we can run as bad as winning only 36 times and losing 64 and we still come out about the same as the buddy (a difference of $2.40 in his favour).
However, the point still remains, you ran bad.
You cannot come up with a situation where passing these edges is correct except when you run bad. Unfortunately, none of us knows ahead of time when we will run bad.
Unless you can come up with a way to predict when you will and will not run bad, passing an edge like this is simply bad poker.
A good poker player has a mindset where he approaches every new situation by making a decision that maximizes his profit, as if he were faced by that same decision an infinite amount of times.
Ex:
If ive got the nut flush draw
A5ss
Flop K 7 3 ss
$100 flop
Villian shoves $100 all in.
Im always calling. I dont even need to think about it. I can expect to profit each time i call. We start building our long term graph the correct way by making all the correct short term decisions.
You should be doing the +ev decision no matter what your equity is. Whether its 33/66 or 8/92 where you only have a 8% chance of winning.
Ex:
We have 66
We know our opponent has AA (for examples sake)
Flop K T 2 rainbow
Pot $100
Our opponent bets $5 all in
Call
Last edited by HappyLuckBox; 02-18-2014 at 05:22 AM.