Game is playing fairly loose passive. Villain is a young 20 something white guy, who while it's his first time playing in this particular card room, has been talking nonstop about all the cardrooms he plays at regularly, his hourly, his variance, etc... He's been playing fairly snug. Hero is an obvious recreational player, still in his work clothes, probably a little on the loose side.

Villain has 750 to start, hero covers.

Preflop, 2 limpers, hero overlimps with K10 in MP+1, villain makes it 25 from MP+2 (that's an abnormally small raise in this game after the limpers), CO calls, BB calls, both limpers call, I call to close the action.

Pot is 150

Flop is AQ5

Checked around

Turn is gin, J

Checked to the 2nd limper who makes it 35 (he's a LAGgy rec player who has 500 to start and does not like to fold), I make it 135, Villain calls, everyone else folds.

Pot is 455

River is 6

He has about 600 left. What should we bet? I obviously think he has either a super good draw which missed, or a very strong made hand like JJ or maybe a slow played AA. Obviously we aren't getting any money from missed draws unless we check and he bluffs, but how much do you think this guy can call on the river with a set or 2 pair? Who likes a normal size bet like 275, who likes something larger like 375, who likes a push, and who likes a check? Thanks in advance

I think we have to start with targetting the most likely holding. I don't think he had a made hand OTF with checking a draw-y board. So it's the turn card he must have liked. And he must really have liked it to call a raise with the OR still to act. Minimum good FD (although it's tough to give him one ...T9hh? And I really like JJ. or QJ.

I think I'd target the set/2p. 9 combos of QJ and 3 of JJ (but JJ more likely to raise pre). I think the 275 would work.

I think you have to bet here even though you have to expect a lot of folds. After you raise turn villain is not likely to bluff river, you either have a very strong hand or missed draw yourself on the river.

I expect villain has a lot of missed draws in his range. Very likely one pair+flush draws, hands like KdQd or JdTd, possibly various T9 combos. The stronger hands are mostly either betting flop or raising turn. QJ might call but they are hoping to keep the pot small in case you have AQ/AJ or better, so they probably check behind.

I would target the pair+draw hands with a $200 bet that somebody with KQ might feel obligated to call at this point in case your making a cheap bluff with a missed draw.

At this point I'm trying to make my line look like a bluff. We checked the flop then raised a small bet on the turn, we can rep 54hh, Txhh ect.

I'd jam.

We can go for a cute little 150 type bet here and hope to get hero called by KQ/KJ but I'd go for the max.

If we do target sets and 2pair, is there any merit to check raising all in?

grunch,

check/shove.

his turn call is really strong and indicates either a strong made hand that the turn improved (AJ, QJ, JJ), or a flopped set that he tried to slow play (very unlikely) or a strong draw.

He's not calling a bet with the draws, but he may bluff if we check, and he's likely not checking back any of the strong made hands.

That's what I was thinking, plus great for your future river checking oop range potentially

The two options are crai or shove. Any smaller bet makes no sense unless this guy is hero folding sets a ton. I tend to favor crai. There's some chance he'll bluff a missed draw and he should never check behind with a set. Maybe he bets small and then levels himself into thinking he induced when you shove.

Losing too much value IMO from the times he checks back.

Villain cold calling is pretty strong IMO, betting this river everytime + it's hard to induce any bluffs here/in this spot even if he doesn't have a calling hand/bluffs in general.

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Is villain capable of making big hero-folds to big sizings or will he station off and make frequent calling mistakes, not like i'm expecting anyone to fold sets/2-pairs here...

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I like x-raising here given the SPR seems good once he bets and we get more money in the pot

His range OTR doesn't really have any value hands that will x back a lot, besides some really strong draws that won't call a bet or bluff regardless anyways.

Didn't realize he cold called the turn in position.

Hero, has villain (although snug) called decent sized bets with draws in the past? Have you seen him make any river bluffs? Have you seen him check back any rivers that seem like obvious value bets, even if thin? Have you seen him hero fold/call?

I think the answer to these questions will tell you what to do on the river. Personally I am Doing anything possible to get stacks in, whether that is check/shove or possibly over bet shoving. With any sort of history this is a go to over bet shove for me. He views you as a Rec player. Assuming he's like most LLSNL players I assume he hates folding. If we're against any part of his value rang he may think you're bluffing and call.

By the way I am not really liking this pre flop. A bad lag limps and we over limp with K10o. Pretty clear Raise/Fold situation in my opinion, then you over call a tight players PF raise in position with a hand that is easily dominated and doesn't play multi way very well. Probably just folding this majority of the time in MP given these dynamics and what I mentioned above.

KTo, MP, full ring? Gotta fold pre.

As played, check/shove. V either has JJ or busted hearts. He should never have Ax in his range, as he did not c-bet.

Also, if V is paying attention, and we check river, our range looks weak and he may be more inclined to bluff his missed draws.

We called a small pf raise, we checked the flop, we raised a really weak bet on the turn, then we checked the river. Looks like a failed attempt at a semi bluff on the turn that is giving up on the river.

I don't think Ax is an automatic c bet on this flop. You need to fold Ax to any check raise which makes it super exploitable to bet here considering the draws that can raise you. I don't think he is likely to have AK or AJ but it is certainly possible.

Checking back any A on this flop is pretty terrible. Far too much value. I don't think V ever shows up with an A.

Yeah I'm starting to think c/shove is the best play. Any of his strong value hands are betting the river, and if he is on a draw, at least it gives him a chance to bluff at it. I don' think he is folding to a c/r any of his value hands.