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Old 05-24-2015, 06:20 PM   #1
GoGrind
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Maximizing value with the near nuts

Hi guys I played an interesting hand yesterday at a 2/5 NL table and would like some feedback on whether or not I played the hand to maximize value.

Starting stacks:

Hero: $600
Villain: $350

It gets folded around to Hero who opens to $20 in the HiJack holding 5 5. Villain in the CO and the BTN both call.

The flop comes: 5 Q T $63 in pot

Hero bets $40. Villain calls. The BTN folds.

The turn brings a T $143 in pot

Hero bets $100. Villain calls.

The river brings a J $343 in pot

Now at this point would you put villain all-in hoping that he was chasing the flush or just check and hope that villain shoves? I was leaning more towards shoving myself since if checked to villain might check back low flushes and Qx type hands. Moreover, if villain has the A we will most likely get it in on the river whether I shove or check so checking seemed definitely -EV in the long run. Thanks for the feedback guys!
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Old 05-24-2015, 06:45 PM   #2
Case2
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Re: Maximizing value with the near nuts

He has 190 behind. If he's not calling that off, I don't he's not shoving it either. He's called two streets for half of his stack already. And you can't avoid doubling him up if he does happen to have a better hand. No reason to do anything but shove, IMO.
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Old 05-24-2015, 07:00 PM   #3
QuadJ
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Re: Maximizing value with the near nuts

Unless villain has some specific habit your trying to exploit, just move in on river. Trying to bluff a 4 flush paired board is silly, villain either has a hand he is willing to get in or he doesn't. There is no way your getting away from your hand if villain does have better. Occasionally he will get away from trip tens or a low flush but he wasn't going to bet those hands if you check.
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Old 05-24-2015, 07:11 PM   #4
BigBlue56
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Re: Maximizing value with the near nuts

Yup, I'm getting it all in here. I'm likely betting enough to cover vs. shoving all-in myself. I know it amounts to the same thing, but I think if there is a question in V's mind... calling a $200 bet, vs. $440 shove seems easier.

I don't know if there is a 'hollywood' effect at 2/5, but at 1/2, the 'sheesh' look/bet sells a weaker hand much better.
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Old 05-24-2015, 07:53 PM   #5
kookiemonster
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Re: Maximizing value with the near nuts

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBlue56 View Post
Yup, I'm getting it all in here. I'm likely betting enough to cover vs. shoving all-in myself. I know it amounts to the same thing, but I think if there is a question in V's mind... calling a $200 bet, vs. $440 shove seems easier.

I don't know if there is a 'hollywood' effect at 2/5, but at 1/2, the 'sheesh' look/bet sells a weaker hand much better.
I do this too! Against suspicious players I sometimes do the opposite and push in like $400 when I know he only has $100 behind. But I digress...I wanted to ask how you go about getting a total on someones stack--do you try to count it yourself even if he is across the table? Just ask him? Do you ask the dealer? If the player gives you a rough number do you just add fifty bucks to make sure you cover? People always hide big chips in my game, cover their stacks with their arms. I was in seat ten some time back and my opponent was in seat two. I asked the dealer for a count and she gave me a blank stair, said ''you have him covered'', continued with the blank stare.

Edit: NH OP. Shove that muthafkr. For value. Getting called by hands that don't bet if we check.

Last edited by kookiemonster; 05-24-2015 at 08:00 PM.
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Old 05-24-2015, 08:15 PM   #6
Willyoman
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Re: Maximizing value with the near nuts

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBlue56 View Post
Yup, I'm getting it all in here. I'm likely betting enough to cover vs. shoving all-in myself. I know it amounts to the same thing, but I think if there is a question in V's mind... calling a $200 bet, vs. $440 shove seems easier.
Agreed.

Hand looks good, well played.
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Old 05-24-2015, 09:28 PM   #7
DeathCabForTootie
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Re: Maximizing value with the near nuts

Absent reads I move in on the river. It's hard to imagine the villain getting here by the river with anything less than A♡Qx. If we check, the villain may check back the river with the A♡ because he's spooked by the paired board.

Our opponents at LLSNL fail to value bet thinly and call too much. When we don't have strong reads, the only way to take advantage of our opponents when we're nutted is to value bet.

If he has QQ or TT or got stubborn with JJ for some reason, pay the man his monies. We can minimize the chances the villain has QQ/TT due to a PF 3-bet but we can't eliminate them from his range.

That leaves the A♡ left as the only real value hand the villain can have given the action. We can't depend the villain to bet this river even with the A♡ so we need to bet it and hope he has a hand that can call.

Edit: of course there is A♡K♡ that beats us but way more hands with the A♡ here that we beat where we should be happy to get it in.
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Old 05-25-2015, 01:20 AM   #8
BigBlue56
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Re: Maximizing value with the near nuts

Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
I do this too! Against suspicious players I sometimes do the opposite and push in like $400 when I know he only has $100 behind. But I digress...I wanted to ask how you go about getting a total on someones stack--do you try to count it yourself even if he is across the table? Just ask him? Do you ask the dealer? If the player gives you a rough number do you just add fifty bucks to make sure you cover? People always hide big chips in my game, cover their stacks with their arms. I was in seat ten some time back and my opponent was in seat two. I asked the dealer for a count and she gave me a blank stair, said ''you have him covered'', continued with the blank stare.

Edit: NH OP. Shove that muthafkr. For value. Getting called by hands that don't bet if we check.
After reading the forums, I don't depend on my eyes only for an all-in, unless I'm darn sure there aren't big chips hiding. If the dealer says I cover, and I'm not sure... I ask the player for a count, or to clearly see his stacks.

That being said, if I'm sure there aren't big chips, I can visually ID stacks, and add some if I want to be sure. in this case. with less than $200 behind (V), most players will have a stack of 20 reds($5), plus at least a half stack and some white chips ($1).

Once you ask to verify, betting $200 = shoving all-in. The jig is up. On the other hand, if you bet $150 and leave him with $20, it's not really the end of the world, unless you are in a strange rule room and he shoves, but you've already shown and your hand is killed (overseas).
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