Nine handed live $2/5 nl game.....

7 players to the flop, each in for $70, $70 x 7 = ($490 pre-flop)

The flop checks around..

On the turn we have a $300 bet, a call that add's another $300, an all-in call that within penny's of being $300, and my $300 call. ($1,200)

On the turn, I have an up & down str8 draw, and have 8 outs to make my hand. At the time I was thinking of my $300 investment into the $1,400 pot, is this 3-to-1?

I had about $700 left in my stack, and the player driving the action -presumably w/ a good hand, had me well covered and I'm certain that regardless of what card came on the river he was shoving.....and he did, I folded when I missed..

So, with the info provided I'd kindly apprciate some feedback. Critique the math and analyze the play.

Basically, was making the $300 turn call, 3 : 1 on my money, and having 8 outs to make the winning hand, a "good" play? The "right" play" A long term money making play?

thanks!

So, you have 300 to call to win 1390 right? Hence 18% pot odds (4.6/1 on your money).

If you have 8 outs which you are sure will give you the nuts (no flush draws out there?), thats roughly 16% equity (more like 18% acc. to pokerstove). So borderline profitable call at this given time.
However if you are sure you'll stack the guy if you make your straight, profitable call (ie implied odds).

According to me, when on the turn you are thinking about investing the 300 to win 1390, you are getting 1390/300=4.6... so 4.6/1.

Not sure where you are getting the 3/1 from.

1390 / 300 = 4.6 / 1 ~= 82% / 18%
You are getting almost the exact correct direct odds to make the call.

Assuming that all of your outs are clean, meaning that if some of your outs will put a flush on the board, you might end up losing money to someone else's flush when you hit your straight.

If that's the case, your implied odds and your direct odds are smaller, and as a result you would need to get a better return when you hit your hand in order to make this a correct call.

Assuming that all your outs are clean and that he always shoves the river, your expected value up to the following amount. I say up to because there is a chance that you are splitting the pot with one of the other callers with the same hand.

EV = 18.2% X (1390+700) – 81.8% X 300
EV = +$135

Even if you take away his shove on the river (i.e., he soul-reads and folds), it is still marginally positive EV of $7. So, this is a mandatory call.

Grunch

Wait, so the turn (pot $490) goes, bet $300, call $300, call $300, and now its on you to call $300 to win $1390?

1390/300 = 4.633

OTT, you have 8 outs out of 46 unseen cards. This is assuming that no flush draw is possible, otherwise you likely only have six outs given the action.

46/8 = 5.75

So as it stands, calling would be -EV and you need to expect more money to go into the pot OTR for the call to be profitable.

Assuming that you will make the extra $700 that you have left OTR 100% of the time, you would be calling $300 to win $2090...

2090/300 = 6.96

So it appears that if you are going to make the extra $700 100% of the time, then it would be profitable to call $300 OTT. But this is assuming that there is no flush draw, your straight draw makes the nuts with all of its outs, and you won't ever be chopping with someone that made the same straight. So in practice, It's probably best to fold OTT.

Now, I may not be correct here, but I believe the way to calculate the exact amount of money you need to go into the pot OTR to make a turn call EV neutral is:

46 unseen cards / 8 outs = 5.75

5.75 x $300 (the amount you need to call OTT) = $1725

$1725 represents the total amount you need to make from the pot when you hit. The pot is currently $1390.

So... $1725 - $1390 = $335

So ultimately this means that if you were sitting with $600 total left OTT, you could never make the call (or a +EV call at least), because the most you can ever win OTR when you get there is an additional $300.

Disclaimer: If two people called your $300 OTR then it could be +EV.

You are correct that there are 46 unseen cards. However, based on the action, we assume that 2 of the unseen cards in the hand of the aggressor do not contain one of Hero’s outs. This changes the math a little to 8/44 = 18.2% equity for Hero.