I just wrote this article to a friend of mine that is having some tilt problems, would you agree with my Calculations?



Just to break even at a $2/$5 live game you must average $300 per 8 hour session.

Here is how the numbers break down:

Every 30 mins either rake or session fee will be equal to $6 x 2 = $12 x 8 hrs = $96
Average number orbits in 1 hr = 2.5 = Blinds of $7 x 2.5 = 17.50 x 8 hrs = $140
Total so far = $236

Add in transportation = Bus and taxi = $15
Food = $20
Tips to dealers = $20

Net cost before you even win a single hand = $291


Now let's look at the facts of 52 cards.

Once in every 221 hands you will get AA

THIS IS A FACT.

So in an average 8 hours = aprox 25 hands per hour you will get AA once

AA, KK 2x per 8hrs
AA-QQ, AK 5x
Pocket pairs 12x
Sets 1.5x

These are facts that do not even include variance or in other words it would take on average 10,000 hands to average these numbers out. Considering an average of 25 hands x 8 hours play =200 hands of poker per session it would take 50 sessions to see 10,000 hands. So it's very conceivable that a player could go for 10 sessions and not even see a single set.

If you run cold for 10 sessions which is highly probable that could easily mean -$291 x 10 = -$2,910

Now we all know that you can win without premium hands and we also know that there are times when a set can triple you up etc.... etc....

But these numbers should be a sobering FACT that every poker player should be aware of. Always keep in mind that this session is costing me $291 because that should force you to play smart and also always be aware that you are only going to get 5 premium hands per 8 hours to cover the cost of $291. That should emphasis the importance of extracting max value when you get them.

edit:

I just realized that $291 divided by $5 =58.2 bb divided 2 = 29.1 bb per 100 hands
or 58.2 bb per 8 hours = 7.2 bb per hour.


edit, edit

Moderator: I should have titled this thread, The Cost of Live Poker - If you can edit it please do.

Thanks.

I would like to see some of the math guys respond to this... but im list'nin..

you never get a walk in the BB?

Not the games I play in with 5 limpers lol

But ok let's say your right and assign a number to that of $10 it doesn't change things that much.

Please post a link in the Theory forum as those guys are wicked smart.

I think you should remove the cost of transportation and food. These are not costs that are the consequence of choosing to play poker. If you chose another activity, you would still have to pay the costs of food and transportation.

Thus, I bring you from $291, down $35 to $256.

I also believe you are over estimating rake/tips. You are assuming that you are only playing pocket-pairs and AK. So you will not be shipping full pots every 30 minutes, and paying a full-rake+tip every 30 minutes.

I bring your rake/tip down to $6/hr. Thus, over an 8 hour session (which is the time length you've considered), you are paying closer to $48, rather than $116, which is a difference of $68.

Thus, I bring this down to $188.

But, this isn't the "Net cost before you even win a single hand" because this $188 number assumes that you have tipped the dealer, and paid rake, which implies that not only that you have played a hand, but that you have won hand(s).

Now, you have assumed 2.5 orbits per hours. 2.5 orbits per hour is kinda slow, but let's use that anyway.

So over 8 hours, you are posting 2.5*7*8 = $140 in blinds.

So altogether we are up to $395 for an 8 hour session. That is a lot of money, but not all of that money is coming off the table. Only $188 in rake/tip is coming off the table.

The other $140 in blinds, is paid by everyone, and available to win by everyone.

In any case, assume you are only playing a very tight range: {22+, AK, AQ, ATs+, KJs+, JTs+}. That is a total of 134 hands out of a total of 1326. Over 8 hours (or 20 orbits, or 200 hands) you will see those hands about 20 times. That requires you to average a win of $395/20 = $19.75, or 4 big-blinds, each time you see one of those hands.

The above doesn't include the 20 big-blinds hands that “you’re in”. Where you might flop 2-pair+. This also doesn't include the times you get to see a cheap flop OTB, CO, HJ, SB, ect. with a "nice" hand like 67s.

For these reasons, I'd say it's fair to reduce our required winnings to 3 big-blinds per hand we participate in.

3/BB per hand played is possible at live-low games filled with SF stations.

You should accept that this win-rate is possible because of all of the people that accomplish this every year by being successful poker pros/semi-pros.

Whether or not you (or I) can beat the game has more to do with our knowledge/understanding of the game and our opponents, than it does with anything else (including the trivial arithmetic given in our two noob posts).

If you play somewhere that does not have a time charge and your playing tight your not really contributing too much to the rake. But I'm no math wizard so dunno.

Food cost is somewhat mitigated by the fact that if you play at most major casinos and are ok with what they offer your comps are going to pay for or at least offset food costs.

This wasn't an argument for or against playing live profitably.

I know a few people that do this (or so they claim).

I'm just trying to give "perspective".

And I might be a noob poster here but I've probably been playing live poker for longer then you've been alive.

also

I think it's a little silly to not eat in 8 hours and the food cost should stay in.

Ya I guess so in Vegas but not in the major one I play at in Canada.

We are scum of the earth as far as they are concerned and free parking is about all I can get lol

I couldn't find that forum please feel free to do it if you like.

thanx

It sounded like an argument for not playing poker...

It also sounded like an excuse for losing at poker...

Of course it’s silly to not eat for 8 hours, but that wasn’t the point…

Food costs are not the consequence of the choice to play poker...Should we include the cost of the clothes that we wear when we play? Should we include the cost of the soap we have to use when we go home and wash our hands? Before we play we shower. Should we include our water bill?

You are not losing money to the food industry because you play poker. That money is going to the food industry regardless.

Noob poster does not equal noob player.

Noob poster = 7 posts.

No

I'm pretty sure that cost is a bit too high or depends on factors that are a bit less fixed than you make them out to be. Regardless, the thing is your winrate live if you're competent should be so high that it mitigates that loss and still gives you a very healthy take.

I partially agree.
Food costs may be higher while playing poker (assuming no comps), as you will be eating away from home, often paying more than you would normally otherwise.
If I typically use one gallon of gas in a weekend, but use 10 to go play poker, than the extra 9 gallons is an expense of playing.
If my food budget for a weekend is $40, but I spend $80 while out playing poker for a weekend, then I consider the extra $40 an expense of palying poker.
I am also an economist by trade, and I am obsessive compulsive about figuring opportunity costs, so others mmv.

most places i go to you get food for free so subtract the $20. also you shouldn't tip at all at low stakes as it effects your winrate. i play 20-30 hours a week live poker and i haven't tipped anyone in years. the blinds do not equal rake and you should have an equal expectiation of stealing/winning blinds making it somewhat neutral EV. also you pay rake as you go so you are not out that before you even sit down. its around 100-150 i'd say

everywhere I have played has free food either on a poker menu or through comps. which brings me to a point no one has made... comps. Compute your comps and that number probably comes way way down. Also, bring food from home?

I got to the part where you typed:

THIS IS A FACT

and I laughed so hard I nearly fell out of my chair.

I think its a good when making a lot of general assumptions to include at least one fact to give the whole thing a good foundation.

But I understand the track your mind is running on. Its circular and mislabeled as "logic". Good that you included the bus fare because you will be making lots of laps.

It seems to me your premise would lead to overplaying big pairs btw.

You are very new, welcome you.

That's exactly what I thought as well.

Throw most of your thinking out. Expenses are what they are, minimize them and thats all you can do.

Poker is not a house game. You play against other players. Blinds exist to stimulate action and are a neutral factor. Throw that out.

Time charges and rake. This is a relevant issue since it affects your approach. If you are playing a raked game playing tight is a good adjustment. It allows others to play more than their fair of rake. But don't take this to any extreme that would prevent you from playing in profitable situations. OTOH, in a timed game you need to open up a little, likewise, when stacks are shallow in a timed game you open up even more.

This adjusting process is about all I can gleam from your post.

You don't need to think about this stuff except to point out this one key comment I want to make, and it may help your friend with tilt. All of these "costs" and the value of "time" and the recreational outing aspect of a visit to a poker room are the factors that cause the fish to school, to call, to overplay and make those huge mistakes. They don't come to fold. We can. We will. We win. Not because of math but because our psychological approach is correct.

Make a hand. Limp for value. Value bet. Don't try to outplay anyone. Let it come to you. Easy game.

Live low limit ain't real poker. Its standing in the orchard waiting for the ripened fruit to fall off the tree. If you see another picker don't fight over the apple. Another one is falling over there.

If your game isn't this easy, find another. Don't overtip. Fold when passive players bet. Don't open pots with pot sweetning bets. When the table is nitty buy the table a round of beer and "announce a mandatory table straddle".

Low limit no limit MBA in a nutshell.

limp for value lolololololololololool

this is the nittery I expected more of in this forum.

Your blinds aren't sunk costs, you have a chance to retain them by winning the hand.

You only pay rake if you win a hand. Most people only tip after they've win a hand. Therefore if you're paying those costs, you've already won something.

I get that a lot.

I have good news, when you have learned everything you can about poker its all downhill from there. You, otoh, still have things to learn. Rejoice.

Ever see a fish shove 1300 into a 300 pot having made a river broadway on a paired, flushed board? When covered. No. Play more.

We limp for value to play more hands against the fish. We trade small mistakes for big ones. It also helps us blend in with the fish so those 2+2ers that drop in get cocky and arrogant. Easy game.

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