1) PF is fine (I don't know that I would go $25, maybe more like $18-$20). V1's 3-B to $137 from your RFI of $25 is troubling; it more than 5X (don't know if this was intentional or as you explained, random due to his chip stacking?). It is true that folding is boring, but folding here is actually the more prudent choice given all factors (opponent tendencies, stack sizes, positions, etc.) It is just about 10% of the starting stack and you should be looking to get a final pot size of at least about 6-8X times the bet to get a good return on your pair when set mining (you'll miss so many other times, and forced to c/f a lot of flops). Even with a low flop you might not really know if you're ahead or behind (room for a lot of reverse implied odds) as well as doomed by over cards. Smaller RFI might decrease 3-B sizing and limit the initial bloating.
2) Since you elected to flat, both you and your opponents have narrowed each other's ranges. The flop is good for you now, but can get very bad for you in a hurry. If V1 has something like QQ or JJ and checks back flop but hits either straight or set on the turn, it makes betting extremely hard for you but a little easier for V1 IP. If board then pairs on river anything other than giving you quads, you're still only holding bottom boat which can be no good in a lot of different ways. In the event V1 has KK or AA, I highly doubt he's checking back the flop. High likeliness he's got AKo, AKs, or even AQs (it's the very bottom of 3-B range, discounting AQo or KQo or KQs as these would just be torching $$$ with other's left to act behind). A
Q
would be most likely AQs hand to be able to continue this flop with enough equity vs. most of Hero's range, A
Q
is only other consideration.
3) 4-B PF makes post flop play extremely difficult, especially OOP if you're called. Ideally you're flopping top set or middle set on a Jx or Tx high flop with the third card lower than 5 board vs. over pair (especially if suited connector combos are in V1's 3-B range?). Again, low flop offers a lot of reverse implied odds opportunities.
4) Actual flop is tough. This is one of the few times I am ok with donk leading small due to actual strength of our hand and this board. The $75 or $100 is a fine size. If V1 folds, so be it, but the sizing can get a lot of calls by hands we're beating. In the event of a raise on the flop, I'm probably flatting it and betting big and/or jamming turn (depending on raise size and SPR) at that point with any safe card. If we're coolered by KK or TT there's nothing we can do. If V1 folds to turn jam still ok with pot size from PF and flop action. And if V1 is willing to call off when behind, then at least we're making him pay the max price (equity scenarios vary based on raise size, but at worse for us it might be close (60 us/40 V1) and at best we're way ahead. As mentioned earlier, there's a lot of bad turn cards, especially any Broadway cards and why give V1 a free chance to catch-up. If a free turn card now puts us behind, and we have to c/c a bet hoping to fill-up on the river but not really ever confident enough about betting bottom boat for value as there's a good chance of reverse implied odds.
5) The actual turn is good (pairing the K or T works) as it makes that card's set even less likely. If V1 coolers with TT over 99 that's just bad luck (if TT is in V1's PF 3-B range IP?). But again an A or T on the river can now counterfeit our hand. Agree with all other's about sizing up on turn.
6) If turns get pot to about $550-600 leaving you with about $1000 remaining behind, then when you make quads a value bet size of around $400-450 of your remaining stack should get a call from any K most likely AK (unlikely that V1 3-B with KT). Don't see scenario where shove can really get a call from second best hand, but have exceeded goal regarding final pot size relative to calling PF 3-B with 99 OOP.
A last minor side note: if your venue has any PSJs like high hand or bad beat jackpot where the losing share would be greater than >$3800 and quad-9s qualifies, then I would gleefully great any raise on the river!
Last edited by sam7595; 03-28-2021 at 04:36 AM.