Hero 500ish- young white tag-- villain just recently sat down and squeezed once in the blinds when I opened in LP and the button called. I folded to the 3!, button called, villain cbet the flop for a psb and button folded.

BB Villain- young white European 410

UTG limper 300ish very weak and passive

UTG limps, Folds to hero who raises with Kh9h in the CO to 20, BB calls limper folds. Flop is 9x3h5x, villain checks hero bets 30, villain calls. Turn 6h, villain checks, hero bets 55, villain raises to 155, hero?

Villain has 205 behind. Seemed like calling is fine since we most likely get all the money on heart rivers. Unsure if a K or 9 river has rio though. Someone tell me I am wrong.

I understood the spot as 100 to win 515. If we fold we get nunca but if we call and get there we get the monies but there is some rio action in there maybe. Seemed marginal but better than folding?

What do y'all think?

Hard to say without additional information. Do you remember if there was a flush draw OTF? If there was it's a lot more unlikely that V has a set. OTT I'd say his most likely holdings are 56s, 87s that had a backdoor FD OTF, 33, 55, and maybe something like 45hh or 75hh. My gut says that we can call OTT and call again if we improve. Feels to me like 56 is a large part of his range here. Again though, pretty hard to make a call on the forum with that little information.

Heart draw is Backkdoor. Only one heart otf.

Are you betting for value or as a bluff OTT?

Trick question?

I am betting for value

Guy's question was if there was a different FD on flop or it was a rainbow flop. You said the flop was 9x 5x 3h. This turn plays quite a bit differently if there are two flush draws on board. It's irritating that there's any ambiguity on such basic information tbh.


Anyway, as to your questions. For there to be RIO on K/9 rivers would imply that the majority of villain's range is 87/66/55/33. Which well may be true, but if it isn't true, your K/9 outs are irrelevant because you probably have the best hand anyway. Improving to two pair only makes the difference against 96/95/93/65/53 or potentially overpairs, all of which seem to be unlikely in his range.

If you assume the 205 goes in on every single river and that you only can call when you hit your flush, the math is pretty simple:

9/46 rivers that improve you. Assuming you win 100% on those rivers (in reality he can have a NFD or a full house if the board pairs, but whatever). You call 100 to win his 155 raise + his 205 river bet + the 55 bet and 100 pot going into the turn.

EV = (9/46)*(155+205+55+100) - (37/46)*(100) = +20.32

So it is a call even if you're folding on K/9. There are some problems with this, though. For one, you won't always win when you hit the flush and the board pairs. Also, there are some rivers that complete your flush but put 4 to a straight out, so he might get away from some sets on those rivers. If I had to guess I'd say it's a near breakeven call and it doesn't matter either way.

I didn't realize it but I would've mentioned if there was another fd on the flop I just couldn't remember the suits. Thanks for the mathematical breakdown.

What doesn't matter either way?

Whether you call or fold. I think it's a near breakeven spot.

Generally prefer checking back turn for equity realization, not getting blown off our hand, increase our chances of getting bluff caught on river with our b/x/b line, calling most river bets from villain with 2nd pair SDV if he bets an over-card etc.

Checking turn makes a lot of sense from a balance perspective also; we would want to bet most of our non-SDV flush draws, so it will be hard for us to river a flush in checked behind scenarios.

Have to bet turn. To much value to be had from alot of draws, pairs plus draws.

Checking this turn for showdown value/fear of getting raised is bad. Your checking to many turns.

You are not getting check/raised often. Plus when we do. We have plenty equity to call.

Alot of his bluffs, have some showdown value. Alot of rivers may slow him down.

So then what are you expecting to call you OTT on this board that you are ahead of? It's not a trick question. I think it's THE question that will lead to the answer on what you should be doing OTT. Combine that question with player tendencies and it should be pretty clear.

Thought there was a 2nd flush draw also. So checking turn, isn't as bad.

Still prefer bet by wide margin, for value and fact we are not getting raised often.

APD, villain will call with many inferior hands. I also prefer betting, but checking is reasonable as well.

Initially I thought checking the turn would be better but I believe I was only thinking that because I know hero gets x/r on turn!

Top pair good kicker and 2nd nfd has plenty of equity against V's range after he checks turn so there's really no reason not to bet. We can still get value from weaker 9X, A4 54 64 OESDs, pair + gutshot with 76/86, pair + FD, A5hh, infact any AXhh that floated us OOP now needs to be made to pay to out draw us and QJhh QThh JThh overs+bdfd floats can also pay us now and lose their stacks on a flushing river.

Another good reason to bet turn is we will likely get checked to on a lot of rivers if V calls turn. Then we get the choice of checking back or betting. If we check turn unknown villain might bet the river big in front of us and we'll just be left guessing.

Finally if V does have a random over pair, set or smaller flush draw he's much more likely to gii on flushing rivers if we bet the turn rather than check behind. Similarly Q9 J9 T9 can call the turn bet but may well fold if we check turn then bet a flush or K river.

As played the hands we really fear on the turn are 7 combos of sets, the unlikely 42/74 straight and the more likely 87 straight. I'd call the turn for sure and then make a decision on the river.

If V shoves on a K river we only beat bluffs, 65 and the somewhat less likely 53 63 93 95. I think V can have some busted FDs here but not many. He has few sets but potentially 16+ straight combos. That's maybe 25 combos that beat our two pair vs 15-25 combo of bluffs and weaker 2pairs. With so much dead money I'd have to call a shove on a K river.

On a 9 river we beat all V's non boated 2pair (probably the more likely 2pair tbh). However, V probably backs off and refuses to shove his 2pair when the 9 pairs on board. This leaves us facing shoves from boats, straights and strangely played trip 9s. I just can't see anyone x/r 9X other than A9 though. Also I think V will not bluff a missed draw on a rIver 9. He will expect you to call all your 9X so he thinks he has too little fold equity. Therefore I'd be inclined to fold to a shove on a rIver 9.

On a blank river V shoves all his 2pair+:and maybe a few bluffs. We don't know this V is capable of bluffing much on the river so I'd fold.

On a flush river V should be wary after your turn call that you just rivered him. He will have a few flushes in his range himself and some will be the nut flush. He will sigh-shove all straights, some (most?) sets and some 2pair because that's what people do when obviously outdrawn! If the flush river pairs the board and he shoves I think you are in some trouble as he doesn't have many flushes to bet in the first place and a 3 flush paired board may cause him to slow down even with his straights. You'll be shown a boat a lot when he shoves a paired flushing river.

On a 4 straight river I expect most villain's will spot the straight and only shove their straights and handful of angry 2pairs/sets. You lose to his entire range so you should fold.

I think we are giving this guy too wide of a range for the limited info we have. Dude is the the BB calling a 4x raise (assuming this is 2/5). Buttttttttttt that's my opinion. I won't argue against others opinions.

If V is tighter will it make much difference to our turn decisions? Do we prefer turn check? Do we still call a raise if we bet?

If V is tight I guess straight draws and 9X are discounted significantly. As a result over pairs and sets become a much bigger part of V's range.

For an alternative view I'm giving V a preflop calling range of QQ-22 AQ AJs-A8s KQs KJs QJs JTs T9s 98s 87s

I'm also saying he floats flop with any pair above 5X, any draw, any overcards, and any AXs with a bdfd. On the turn I'm modeling V as folding all pairs below top pair and any unimproved draws or overcards. For now I'm assuming V slow plays all overpair+ as flop isn't hugely drawy and hero range contains few draws.

This means V calls flop with 99 55 33 QQ-66 A9s T9s 98s AQ AJs ATs A9s/A8s with bdfd, KQs KJs QJs JTs 87s.

He folds 44 22 A9s/A8s no bdfd


On the turn villain can continue: 44 combos
Straights: 87s 4 combos
Sets: 99 66 55 33 10 combos
Over pairs: QQ JJ TT 18 combos
Other pairs: A9s T9s 98s 6 combos
FDs: AQhh AJhh AThh A8hh QJhh JThh 6 combos

Villain will fold turn with: 48 combos
88 77 12 combos
AQ 15 combos
AJs ATs A8s 9 combos
KQs KJs QJs JTS 12 combos

Vs this villain we can only get value on the turn from 10 out of 44 combos villain continues. Of those 10: 4 have nfd and stack us on flush rivers and 7 have overcard outs and only 2 will make flushes that pay us off on river.

34 combos that continue are ahead of us. Of those the 20 pair combos leave us 9 flush outs, 3 K outs and 2 9 outs. The 4 straight combos leave us 9 or 7 flush outs (87hh blocks 2 outs). The 10 set combos leave us 7 clean flush outs.

Undoubtedly we cannot V-bet a villain playing this range in this way. Like Johnnybuzz suggests, we need to check the turn and try to pick off bluffs on river when we don't make flush.

I suggest this model villain raises the turn with all his QQ+. That is a range of 20 combos; 4 straights, 10 sets and 6 over pairs. Someone else can have a go at analysing that if they like (that or disagree with my ranges/strategy for model villain!)

Breaking down a range, vs opponent you can not possibly range due to lack of read. Is a fruitless action.

We have no idea of his flatting range. He doesn't have a full stack, so probably is not a pro.

Turn card, improves a ton of his flop calling range. And alot of his top pair hands, 97,97,910. Also improves majority of his 5x. Hands.

But we are still not getting raised very often. And in this case. Getting raised isn't a terrible outcome.

We have 2nd nut flush draw and top pair. We have good equity vs his mad hands. And outstanding equity vs his bluffs.

If your checking back this hand. You are simply checking back to many turns. Which makes playing vs you rather simple.

Getting value from alot of 5x hands, 9x hands, 77,88. Get to deny equity vs his over card floats.

In general your cbet is least effective with flops of 9 high or less. Guys are calling very wide range on this flop.

Mikko: checking this turn makes us harder to play against in one way by putting a reasonable hand in our turn checking range. It doesn't mean we are necessarily checking too many hands here, we haven't defined what we'd do with the rest of our range. Maybe we check this and others but bet plenty enough and in a somewhat balanced fashion too.

Also I think there is value in having a think about a few different hypothetical ranges V might have in hands even when we have too little info to rangd them accurately. Doing this we can find where the thresholds for being able to value bet profitably are and use that in future against villain's where we can estimate their range better.

Lots of of other 9x you can check back. Checking back a 9x, that you can comfortably 3 barrel (if heart comes). Is a mistake.

Building pot, with Top pair with flush draw rarely happens. Don't waste opportunity to play big pot with great showdown value and draw potential.

Checking back turn. Is to control size of pot. Not something I am interested in doing with TPGK, and great draw. Although we don't like getting raised here, it is rare and not a disaster.

He is not betting river 100%.

Miko: Yes I agree with that ^

At the same time having some hands that can check turn and then show up on river with the near nuts is good too. Though I suppose we can do that with a load of AXhh KXhh no pair that we cbet the flop with.

Hmmmm, I'll have to give this a bit more thought in terms of our total preflop range. I'll maybe post a long, boring and possibly wonky break down of a possible hero opening range over this whole board. I'm not into GTO but I'm trying to get a better handle on what I'm doing with different bits of my range so I at least know where my unbalanced ranges are...

^ before anyone else says it; yes I probably have unbalanced ranges everywhere

Trying to realize our equity, when we are ahead (majority), is a catch 22. They get to realize there equity. Since, they are likely behind. It benifts them more than it does us in this situation.

Their range is filled with overcards, and gutter balls +pairs.

It isn't even relatively close, who benifts more by free card in this spot.

I think you have like the nut hand to check the turn.